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All Forum Posts by: James Hamling
James Hamling has started 14 posts and replied 4193 times.
Post: Property TAX FRAUD by inflated assessments
#5 All Forums ContributorPosted - Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- Posts 4,353
- Votes 5,758
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
@James Hamling if this is Minnesota maybe Jim can shed some light on this.
I dont think you can bring a Rico case against the government .. I could for sure be wrong about that though
Context is paramount and there is a lot of details to take into account for context here.
In theory one could bring Rico against a governmental body BUT, keep in mind Rico is for "criminal enterprise". So it would require a framework that the Governmental body is in the actions of a "Criminal Enterprise". I can't picture how one get's there.
Next, Mitch start's it off by detailing a legal strategy of overwhelming "them" via volume of suits filled, and the cost to defend against such. Better known as "Lawyering them out".
That tells me the significant doubt's he himself has in it's validity. Not to mention he's talking about ending property tax in totality.
Next, highlighting the tax assessed land and improvements values, talking about them being incorrect vs what they feel would be at an actual sale, inferring tax assessments are to be exact accurate as in if it were to be sold it would get that amount. Appraisals are a price OPINION, and OPINION on value. And tax assessed value is NOT an appraisal, so even lower bar of accuracy.
Stating "if I were to sell this place I think it would actually get ___" doesn't matter. Because that itself is also an OPINION. It's arguing an OPINION vs another OPINION. Anyone who's come through litigation of a case knows damages have to be realized not theorized.
A property would need to have been sold, in a setting where one can prove the appraised amount was in such excess that it proves the OPINION on value was outside of acceptable deviations of an OPINION and thus some form of fraud.
Back to the Rico thing, this has to be at scale, not a 1 here and 1 there.
Right off top of head I know of countless sales where sold $ was far in excess of the tax assessed value. So I am betting for every 1 shown where sold $ is less, there is 20, 50, 100 sold where sold $ was MORE than tax assessed.
The argument that increasing property tax's become unaffordable by some home owners may be good click-bait or news headlines but it's legally nothing. This is a component of a free market economy. Nobody has a "right" for sales tax or any other tax to remain "affordable".
Think of it this way: All the people who got the ARM's back in the day, that then the reset payment's became unaffordable..... Did they have a "right" for the payment to be kept "affordable"?
The premise laid out is, Government over-spending, surviving on debt, running a deficit, hemorrhaging more and more $ in interest, and thus raising tax's to cover the ballooning debt service.
They say it with degrees of surprise and shock. That's standard operating procedure for US Government.
It's exactly the battle we have going on at Federal level, trying to do quazi-austerity actions and other actions to turn it all around before the debt and service on the debt bankrupts the nation and it all comes crashing down.
I have no idea the point of going after appraisers. Appraisers don't set the tax rates, so that just hog-wash to even mention going after appraisers, they have 0 control of anything other than JUST the appraisal/assessment of the property. AND they have a process for an owner to argue there assessment.
Bonds are a thing often voted upon so I have no idea how you come back and sue about a bond that was voted for.
So sue for what, the politicians raising tax's? Sue for them doing a bad job?
Property valuation is set by what property trades at. I don't see how one can blame an appraiser for the data they legally had to use of sold comp's to say what the value accurately was.
Assessors come to tax assessed off that, which is again what properties are trading at. ie the market is setting the price.
has there been gross over spending by Government? Well DUH. The shock that the chickens come home to roost on this in form of higher tax's is childish. Again, DUH.
How any of this is fraud, more or less Rico......
To me all this seems like savvy click-bait. I don't know either of the persons in the video but if they are selling programs..... yeah, there ya-go.....
Again, 100% Gov in D.C., at state capitol or at county, yes 100% waste & over spending, debt debt debt up the wazoo. That's not criminal, it's not a crime to be dumb. And we the people have happily gone along with the stupidity for generations ignoring the OBVIOUS math that at some time the credit limit would run out and servicing payments would hurt.
Post: Room rental to Sex offenders.
#5 All Forums ContributorPosted - Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- Posts 4,353
- Votes 5,758
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@James Wise @Bruce Woodruff waite for it.......
So @Account Closed, I am just a bit curious, are you asking this for yourself and just making up the whole interested in land lording too blah blah blah as a good cover story? Or are you legit curious in leasing to people like yourself?
I get it, you were 22, but she was 14 dude, FOURTEEN.... Do you comprehend that she wasn't even legally competent to drive yet?
And it's not like she was this neighbor chick who "seduced you", dude you literally traveled across states.....
So yeah. Not sure what the true intent was here. I do not think it altruistic. Especially given this was not a 1 off for ya was it. At least 10 others over a what, 2, 3 year span, that's known of. Get's a lot harder to buy the whole "mistake of a young guy".
So from what I can tell, you concocted this whole thing to try and get something else set for your own housing. That is kind of your M.O., the whole schooze em on the internet thing.
I'll be nice, I'll refrain from adding the links to your FBI file. Unless that is you'd like to attempt to lie some more. Then I just might make it my pet project of the week. Or month. Hell, maybe the year, who knows, I'm goofy like that.
Wow, this thread took quite the turn.
Understatement of the year, James....
Huh, well look at that, the convicted Sex Offender (PREDATOR) wasn't a fan of being called out...... Surprise surprise.
This fruit, oh-man going through his FBI conviction file was just stomach turning.
And here he is straight out the klink from 78mnth sentence ranting how good/ safe/ fine chomo's are......
Seriously, his file was shocking. Years of doing it, across numerous states, multitude of victims........
I just can't wrap my head around how a person does such things. 14 yr young little girls....... Sick-sick-sick.......
Post: Room rental to Sex offenders.
#5 All Forums ContributorPosted - Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- Posts 4,353
- Votes 5,758
@James Wise @Bruce Woodruff waite for it.......
So @Account Closed, I am just a bit curious, are you asking this for yourself and just making up the whole interested in land lording too blah blah blah as a good cover story? Or are you legit curious in leasing to people like yourself?
I get it, you were 22, but she was 14 dude, FOURTEEN.... Do you comprehend that she wasn't even legally competent to drive yet?
And it's not like she was this neighbor chick who "seduced you", dude you literally traveled across states.....
So yeah. Not sure what the true intent was here. I do not think it altruistic. Especially given this was not a 1 off for ya was it. At least 10 others over a what, 2, 3 year span, that's known of. Get's a lot harder to buy the whole "mistake of a young guy".
So from what I can tell, you concocted this whole thing to try and get something else set for your own housing. That is kind of your M.O., the whole schooze em on the internet thing.
I'll be nice, I'll refrain from adding the links to your FBI file. Unless that is you'd like to attempt to lie some more. Then I just might make it my pet project of the week. Or month. Hell, maybe the year, who knows, I'm goofy like that.
Post: Free Property Management in Minneapolis Minnesota
#5 All Forums ContributorPosted - Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- Posts 4,353
- Votes 5,758
Quote from @Remington Lyman:
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Remington Lyman:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @James Wise:
Thanks to our friends over at Rent To Retirement, this episode of The Investment Properties For Sale Show features a brand new home in the Minneapolis, Minnesota housing market. Located in the suburb of Minneapolis called Cambridge, Minnesota, investors are able to get a free year of property management and a 7% cash back seller concession if they invest in this brand new build to rent home.
Free Property Management in Minneapolis Minnesota | Investment Properties For Sale - 55008 Clover
___
Like what you see in the video from my buddies at Rent To Retirement?
Want to buy this property? Have additional questions?
You can hit up @Zach Lemaster here on BP, text REI to 33777, or you can reach out to the rest of the Rent To Retirement team on their Website or Socials below.
not to diminish the deals rent to retirement is selling but I could build a duplex with a 1/1 at 400 square feet a unit in my market in Columbus Ohio stacked 2 tall on a small infill lot all in for 260k with my profit and sell it turn key and rent it for $2400 a month. at some point some of these deals need to be screened better. builder credits can be manipulated. that would be tax abated as well. I don't think selling turn key single family homes is what should be recommended to investors.
So your telling us you got some magic wand where you get 200%+ market rents? How?
Or are you just making shameless self-promotions again begging for clueless lemmings to come running?
My magic wand allows me to get 300%+ market rents
The Columbus overlord himself has entered the chat.
Remi as the Columbus Overlord you gotta sit Robbie down and lay down the law. He's actin a fool in this thread.
I think @Robert Ellis is trying to do new developments. I am part of the ULI Columbus chapter which focuses on Urban development, and it's crazy what rents they are asking for. I'm not sure they are actually getting those prices, though. I've heard there is a lot of vacancy in these newly built apartments. It'll be interesting to see if this is a sustainable model when the tax incentives go away.
I am sure it will all work out A-OK. When has putting mass density of sec8 persons into MFH ever gone wrong........
Post: Putting $1M into Crypto
#5 All Forums ContributorPosted - Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- Posts 4,353
- Votes 5,758
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
Just to confirm, it's a week since this thread started, and we're still long term bullish on RE right?
I have enjoyed reading the perspectives of @James Hamling and @V.G Jason
Oh-man, all this does is shift gears to double bullish on Real Estate in the NOW!
In theory, and we have somewhat seen this flesh out, as stock market / economy drops the 10yr bond also drops.
This has biggest impact on mortgage financing, not fed funds rate.
So market down means cheaper mortgage funds making for better R.E. acquisitions.
In theory.
We will have to see how it all comes together with the S/D dynamic. I anticipate it will be a brief ideal window of opportunity until every mortgage broker presses people to jump on the buy facilitating a new "rush" of buyers, driving R.E. prices up even more.
As the Oracle of Omaha says, be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.
Post: Can a “Subject to” Transaction be done SAFELY?
#5 All Forums ContributorPosted - Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- Posts 4,353
- Votes 5,758
Quote from @Peter Walther:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Peter Walther:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Peter Walther:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Peter Walther:
Quote from @Don Konipol:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Don Konipol:
I've read all the posts providing posters personal opinions based on their experience, knowledge, biases, and specializations within the real estate field.
The many NEGATIVE opinions, while not changing my mind that sub to CAN be done safely, have opened my eyes to the very real risks involved and the difficulty of structuring the transaction so as to protect all parties; I was also surprised to learn of how many investors have observed unsatisfactory outcomes with these type deals.
So, based on all your feedback, I have come to the following conclusions
1. While subject to. transactions can be done safely, it is most difficult to accomplish in residential transactions where the seller is a homeowner and not an investor.
2. Full disclosure of the negative consequences (retention of liability without ownership of the asset securing that liability, limitation on credit capacity, etc.) must be provided the seller IN WRITING.
3. ALL parties should be represented by an attorney experienced in real estate
4. Buyers with limited knowledge, experience and capital should not engage in this type transaction
5. A subject to transaction involving commercial property and two professional real estate investors is an appropriate venue for a sub to transaction
6. the buyer should be fully prepared to refinance or payoff the existing loan if it is called due, and should have the capacity to do so.
7. the legal structure and documentation should be prepared by an attorney experienced in subject to transactions.
8. Avoid anybody who was a Pace Morby student
Sub2 is for criminals and con artists. Anyone who comes on these threads and talks about doing Sub2 deals is garbage.
Jim Luv you Bro but your over the top on this one..
Was it really necessary to inject politics into the conversation, after all, I didn't mention the sociopathic narcissist currently occupying the white house or the chaos he's creating or his running buddy who thinks I'm a parasite.
" ....after all, I didn't mention the sociopathic narcissist currently occupying the white house or the chaos he's creating or his running buddy who thinks I'm a parasite."
Bidens back at the White House ?!!
I wouldn't get all up in arms, I am sure he's just having an "old-timers" episode again one of the wranglers will get him a 10yr old to sniff to coax him out soon enough.
While Biden certainly wasn't up the task of being President, he didn't have over 100 mental health professionals opine that he is mentally ill. Nor did he have many of his handpicked advisors such as Rex Tillerson call him "a fuc*ing moron", yet many seemingly intelligent individuals insist that Donald Trump is the greatest businessman who ever walked the face of the earth. Forgive me if I seem confused.
Is it possible that your confusion may have a source influence from an over-consumption of headlines, and an under-consumption of self search in facts and due diligence?
I suspect the factual answers, as most things, are found somewhere in the middle....
I believe that if you review some of my previous posts, on any topic, my opinion is always based on facts and are not superficial. My post that started this tangent was that over 100 metal health professionals have opined that Donald Trump is mentally ill, I have yet to read anything that refutes that fact. I also wrote that Rex Tillerson said Trump is a fuc*ing moron, which is also a fact. The fact is Donald Trump was insolvent and was saved from bankruptcy, unlike his companies, by his creditors who decided he was worth more to them financially alive then dead. Then came along Mark Burnett who created this persona of a successful businessman from whole cloth, and the gullible public bought it, probably as a result of what's known in behavioral economics as availability bias. The fact is he was never that smart, financially or otherwise and his mental acuity has gone steadily downhill. The fact is, Donald Trump is a sociopath and as such is incapable of feeling things normal people take for granted such a guilt, regret, shame, remorse, fear. If you're interested, there's a book titled Sociopath, A Memoir by Patric Gagne, an autobiography by a woman self-diagnosed as a sociopath who went on to get her PhD to better understand her condition. It might give you a better understanding of what may be going on inside Trumps mind. Also, it's a fact that it is commonly believed by mental health professionals, that these personality traits make sociopaths poor decision makers because they are incapable of understanding or caring about the possible adverse consequences of their decisions. The fact is he's also a pathological liar, incapable of telling the truth and in many cases unable to even recognize that he's lying. I really wish that one of you Trump supporters would give me some fact that demonstrates why my opinion of Trump and his policies are wrong or some record of his remarkable achievements.
Well that's just...... Something....
It makes me wonder if there is a DSM for persons who believe they are qualified to make psychological diagnosis for a person based solely upon what they have seen or read on that person via selected media.
Possibly a form of derangement maybe...... Hummmm, yeah it seems to fit the category of a derangement.
FYI; I'm not a Trump Tribalist sooooo yeah, guess again.
See it's this that's really pushing people away. The polarized "your with us or else your with THEM" BS.
I'm the middle. The middle looking on thinking "wow, your psychotic freak outs are NOT winning us over to your side of things".
I think if you took the time to read my post you would find I relied on the opinions of over 100 mental health professionals, and yes, my own observations, to conclude Donald Trump is mentally ill. Since you've been unable to respond with anything other than ad hominems, I believe it's time to bring this discussion to an end.
Post: Putting $1M into Crypto
#5 All Forums ContributorPosted - Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- Posts 4,353
- Votes 5,758
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.
In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops.
"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.
This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.
Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.
There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.
In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne..."Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."
You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down!
Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P.
How ironic that as were debating all this POW it kicks off....
Now I'm starting to look back over past 3-4 weeks asking self what it is that I sniffed out that gave me this instinct to get uber defensive in things. Maybe it was luck, but maybe there was more in the signals that i subconsciously read and just knew.
And I did. I got UBER defensive. I liquidated all crypto, I had never done that in all the years not once ever. And I liquidated 30% of portfolios. And i started focusing on shorts vs going long. I removed ALL long plays, and that's normally my "jam".
My gut tells me this is gonna get bloody, mighty bloody.
I am just hopeful it reflects in 10yr bond and we could see 5% mortgage finance again here soon. That would be a silver lining for sure.
Bessent's hoping for that, too. In regards to the 10 year yield.
Which is why the blood bath doesn't halt, unless trade wars go our direction entirely.
Short prompt, long the curve is the play I believe & set up like that here for good.
I thought it a bit of a "crazy" extreme theory, tank the market to create all these catalyst to force significant drops in interest rate so can refinance the National Dept before (I think it's June is the deadline) and save literally billions upon billions upon billions.
Than pedal to the medal for growth there after.
Seemed really koo-koo buuutttt..... it's got a kind of brilliant strategy too it to. It does make sense in a strategic manner.
And than I recently heard Trump speaking and mentioned how weird the USA vision is vs China. Where China thinks in 100yr terms for their society and actions and the US think is quarters. He isn't wrong, our ADD focus for planning doesn't lend to great long term results.
It got me thinking if he's aligning more with the LT focus and strategy and F the "instant" micro-time...... Ok, now I really am coming round to thinking this really could be the desired intent.
When debt service on national debt is more than the budget for national defense, yeah, shaving off some interest points holds a heck of a lot of benefits to it LT, even if cost is a short term roll-over in markets.
IDK, we will see.
Post: Putting $1M into Crypto
#5 All Forums ContributorPosted - Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- Posts 4,353
- Votes 5,758
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.
In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops.
"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.
This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.
Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.
There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.
In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne..."Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."
You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down!
Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P.
How ironic that as were debating all this POW it kicks off....
Now I'm starting to look back over past 3-4 weeks asking self what it is that I sniffed out that gave me this instinct to get uber defensive in things. Maybe it was luck, but maybe there was more in the signals that i subconsciously read and just knew.
And I did. I got UBER defensive. I liquidated all crypto, I had never done that in all the years not once ever. And I liquidated 30% of portfolios. And i started focusing on shorts vs going long. I removed ALL long plays, and that's normally my "jam".
My gut tells me this is gonna get bloody, mighty bloody.
I am just hopeful it reflects in 10yr bond and we could see 5% mortgage finance again here soon. That would be a silver lining for sure.
Post: Putting $1M into Crypto
#5 All Forums ContributorPosted - Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- Posts 4,353
- Votes 5,758
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.
In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops.
"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.
This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.
Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.
There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.
In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne..."Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."
You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down!
Post: Free Property Management in Minneapolis Minnesota
#5 All Forums ContributorPosted - Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- Posts 4,353
- Votes 5,758
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @James Wise:
Thanks to our friends over at Rent To Retirement, this episode of The Investment Properties For Sale Show features a brand new home in the Minneapolis, Minnesota housing market. Located in the suburb of Minneapolis called Cambridge, Minnesota, investors are able to get a free year of property management and a 7% cash back seller concession if they invest in this brand new build to rent home.
Free Property Management in Minneapolis Minnesota | Investment Properties For Sale - 55008 Clover
___
Like what you see in the video from my buddies at Rent To Retirement?
Want to buy this property? Have additional questions?
You can hit up @Zach Lemaster here on BP, text REI to 33777, or you can reach out to the rest of the Rent To Retirement team on their Website or Socials below.
not to diminish the deals rent to retirement is selling but I could build a duplex with a 1/1 at 400 square feet a unit in my market in Columbus Ohio stacked 2 tall on a small infill lot all in for 260k with my profit and sell it turn key and rent it for $2400 a month. at some point some of these deals need to be screened better. builder credits can be manipulated. that would be tax abated as well. I don't think selling turn key single family homes is what should be recommended to investors.
So your telling us you got some magic wand where you get 200%+ market rents? How?
Or are you just making shameless self-promotions again begging for clueless lemmings to come running?what are you talking about? I'm saying we can create a floorplan that rents for $1200 a month downtown. those are 400-500 square foot units and construction with land is low. meets 1% rule on the basis. I have no idea who you are mr. hamling but I'm sorry I called this a bad investment but it is. it's not even 1% rule do you disagree?
That's NOT what you said.
You said you can rent a 1/1 at 400 square feet a unit in Columbus Ohio for $2400 a month.
It's right here for posterity. Anyone/Everyone can click the pretty little drop down arrows and read your post making such insane BS claims.
Which now you just halved. Did rents drop 50% since you posted that?
My issue is with your wildly false/BS claim which was clearly written as click-bait to self-promote, not to further the discussion in/of this post.
Do I think this Cambridge investment offering is "great"? No, but as a "on a silver platter" turn-key offering it IS fair.
And this Cambridge turn-key investment offering is REAL. It's not some fantasy half-cooked click-bait BS of "1/1 400sqft renting for 1 gagiliion dollars!" manure.
I have exactly 0-beef with James Wise or Zack Lemaster. These 2 are on my top-5 list of people in this industry I MOST respect. Because they are HONEST in what they do; they say what they mean and mean what they say. ie INTEGRITY.
What you did Rob is what I see as void of any integrity. Ain't nobody got time for that!
I said we could build and design a stacked 2 family each unit is 400 square feet and rent it for $1200. Section 8 vouchers pay almost $1100 in our market and you posted some screenshot from who knows where that justifies what I'm saying. Very easy in our market and probably in this market too. I didn't say one I said 2 units. And the economics would be in their favor instead of investing in a low ROI single family home with a garage. Most apartments don't have garages.
I'm saying that the layout and price don't make this deal any good at all. I agree with both the guys you mention they are both very experienced but Zach runs a sales team and James runs hist turnkey stuff and a podcast. Neither of them creates supply of new construction and I can say the same of you. We will build and deliver probably a net 25 housing units this year and entitle a few hundred more in the cities I work in.
I engineer houses and have designed 5 Floorplans already in a midwest market that would be considered in the same peer group as Minneapolis and I have freedom of speech to say I think it's a bad deal. I know the cost of construction and new build numbers in our market. I'm a licensed general contractor. We put 200 videos out a month on new construction in Columbus and deal walkthroughs. I'm not sure where you got I'm dishonest or no integrity or shameless plugging myself. But I talk to guys who buy garbage deals from these organizations on a daily basis and this isn't a good deal. I'd love to see how It can be defended but it's just not a good one. I don't have beef with either of these guys. Zack we push new builds through but we don't do single family anymore because the returns are really bad and I can't put an investor into a single family home. I have to believe in the economics of the properties I'm selling. This doesn't have an exit path, it doesn't meet minimum return requirements, and it has builder concessions that help lower operating expenses that will increase after year 1. it's in a way deceiving to get the deal to "pencil". I see people manipulate financial statements on a daily basis and lower operating expenses like this to get the deal to work.
James lumping me in with real estate agents is fine he can say whatever he wants but we are build to rent developer and of course it's my job to challenge some of the garbage that is being sold on the market. I'll ask again, can you legitimately defend the deal on a standalone basis and explain how someone without counting on appreciation can make this deal work? What happens in month 13 when the property management fee goes up to a real rate of 8-10% and their operating expenses go up? They probably already weren't making money now they are losing money.
Rob, save yourself some breath and just google me.
If we want to measure eggplants on who contributed to most net unit additions.... Ok, I designed a Townhome compilation last year that just went into production on 3 sites consisting of 748 total units.
Yeah, I'm the guy a developer/builder of that scale calls on to given them analysis and advice on things. It was a bit out of the box to let me jump into the drafting and design again but as that words says "again".
I am very well versed and experienced in development. I get what your doing. Your a spec builder in buid-4-rent.
Do you really want to poke me to get my HONEST opinion on what your slinging? I assure, you won't like it. A pound of sugar won't help that medicine go down.
Zach HAS done new builds for years. Or should I say JV's and work with new builds. Zach does a lot more than just "runs a sales team". It's like your saying Andy Reid "just calls out plays" lol.
If your thinking Columbus Sec8 Landlording is such a great simple e-z pee-zee path to $, I suggest you check this great REAL WORLD resource out there called Holton Wise TV. It's awesome, they pull back the curtain and show the REAL-DEAL stuff of it all. Check em out. https://www.youtube.com/@holtonwisetv/featured