All Forum Posts by: James Hamling

ALMOST EVERYTHING! 

If your reading some "How To" that came out between '2010' and '2020', that's some good fire starter, and that's about it's value in this market cycle and odd's are the market cycle of the next decade or two. 

Pre '2010', maybe just maybe it will lean heavier on the fundamental mechanics than specific processes. 

Look, we were for most part playing a game of American Football for a long time. Yeah, various factors kept adjusting but for majority part it was the same sport. 

2020, everything changed. Now were all standing on a field with cricket bat's and starring at some wickets wondering what the hell is a wicket..... Some weird guy is yelling from the side about bowling...... And the vast majority of us are just looking stupidly at each other as others are still trying to huddle up and run screen plays. 

The game has changed. 

It looks a lot like the "baseball" that was the market in the 80's but still it's also very different. 

What makes something a "deal" today is not yester-markets. And vice versa. 

How you do it all, it's all changed. 

We are in a constricted market cycle, low volume, strained budgets, high costs. Things are so very different. Ton's of people with golden shackles of sub 3% rates, epic net shortage, skilled labor shortage, on and on. 

If one plays thinking they can cookie cutter yester-markets plays, it's just not gonna work. Unless your digging deep in that file and pulling from when the game was most similar to todays. 

Hence Sub2. (if this makes no sense to you, research the 80's)

Yes, fundamentals apply like compounding returns, proper use of leverage, appreciating assets etc etc, but the specific's of the how-to's, the "plays" one runs, how you play the game, it's a different game than '19'. 

 Just an FYI on the "illegals to pick our crops" from a farm-kid.... That's not a thing. 

See, there is a thing called migrant farm worker. It's a very long standing visa program, super regularized, they have visas, 100% legal, ton's of rules about it. 

There is no real reason to use illegals, there's just no real benefit to it and a lot of downside. The migrant farm worker program works fairly well. There's always some bad apples in any bunch but for vast majority, it's a win-win. 

Soooo yeah, it's little known by the average Jane/John Doe so I get it could make a good sound byte but yeah, really not so much a thing. Farmers are some of the most ethical humans on earth. Granted, I'm bias so take my opinion with a grain of salt. Buuuuuut, I'm kinda proving the point in being upfront with my bias aren't I. 

What?! 

"...unlike the Midwest where appreciation has been minimal".

Is that a joke? You can't be that clueless.... can you? 

Or do you think 100%+ appreciation in <10yrs is "minimal"?????? 

The hyperbolae, THAT is by far the #1 problem in all of this. 

#2 is the utter BS that is being pumped into peoples mind's by whatever media, regurgitated onto others with no fact finding to confirm or deny. Feeling spewing! 

Here is some FACTS to chew on, yes, from an immigrant household who has actual 1st hand current experience in immigration. 

Only @Melanie P. touched on a fact that I never hear; the GIANT waiting list of LEGAL immigrants who have been long delayed because of ILLEGAL immigration. 

I am not talking from feelings or opinion, this was the explanation given for delay after delay after delay in processing my Mother-in-law's immigration. Yes, they said due to the system getting flooded with illegals who took precedence she got rolled behind them. 
And than meeting with Senators I got the same answers. 

It's literally broken the LEGAL immigration process. 

So what will happen with mass deportation of illegals? With securing of a border, and defending the LEGAL process? It will mean LEGAL immigrants will be allowed to flow through and in again. 

Next: questioning "IF" administration will do as it's promised is ridiculous. We know from last time this administration was in power that they actually do what they promise and campaign they will do. I know all are so used to campaign promises just being a slogan of lies but this is a factual thing, we know they are actually do what they say they will do, or at least try like hell to do it. 

Will they be able to effect mass deportation day1, week1, month1, HELL YES. 

For years law enforcement has had there hands tied, they have been denied ability to make enforcement actions. BUT there was nothing preventing DOCUMENTATION. They 100% have a list, of known persons, and known locations. This is where things will start. 

For example, I know a place that has about 1k illegals. Everyone knows of it, literally everyone. The employer had been raided 2X previously where they pulled up tour busses to load people. No secret. And what have they done in recent years, filled it right back up. And how they treat the people is horrific. I won't mention the employer because it's a massive national entity, but I assure it will be back on news soon as those buses arrive yet again. 

There is a lot of places like this. 

Any who argue FOR exploitation of these people to "defend low prices"..... Shame on you. It is NOT "American" to exploit people as quazi-slaves 4-profit, that's vile. 

It needs to be made criminal to do such as these corporations are, intentionally exploiting illegal immigrants 4-profit. Worried about costs, how about we add a $100k per person fine for such? 

Will getting back to a LEGAL immigration policy and action collapse housing, the economy etc.? That is a ridiculous childish notion. It's saying a country "can't" exist without wide open borders and rampant exploitation of people. 

STOP blindly regurgitating whatever media you consume. When you hear something STOP, think on it, ask if it makes sense, then SEEK OUT additional info, seek out CONTEXT. Formulate your theory then seek to prove it WRONG. 

Because when you do that, your probably going to learn some interesting stuff. Stuff that may radically change your opinion of things. Stuff that may be a head scratcher as to "well why did they not mention this at all, I mean, holly-cow this changes everything". 

Illegal immigration is a CRIME. Robbing a bank to pay rent is a CRIME. Stealing food from a gas station to eat is a CRIME. 

Yes, crimes of desperation 100%, sad, yes they are. CRIMES none the less, letting the crimes run rampant is what collapses systems of society. 

How do you feel if a tenant stops paying rent? Do you fret over finding them a new roof over there head? No, you enforce the rules. The rules made for ALL, to keep order. Because anarchy is bad for all. Desperation is not an exclusion to the rules. 

@Jay Hinrichs did you see the lawsuits already started? 

So there's gonna be that fun delay to things. 

I honestly think that will be the #1 delay to things. The standard process is already long enough, add on the scope of things and that's some significant time. But theses people were in large part those with means, so all it takes is the lawyers to whoop people up enough and it's a tornado of suits upon suits upon suits. 

And as more happen, more will happen just out of FOMO. 

And the more there is, the more log jammed the system get's, the longer they all take. 

One thing for sure is it's gonna be a looooong slog of it. 

If that's the case, I'm a fan. 

A surprised one, but a fan none the less. 

Hey, even a broken clock is right twice a day, right. 

This is how government is supposed to work.

@Jay Hinrichs I'd love to think this is government working FOR the people, protecting there ability to process. My gut say's it's other motives. 

The timing of people most apt to say "F-it, I'm done with this stuff, I'm gonna take the $ and run" is in that 90 day period. 

Because that is when the impacts are most felt of everything one has to do with the now pile of ashes. 90 days to do nothing forces people to engage with staying. 

I have a feeling this is designed to maximize retention of now dislocated persons. 

Why do I say that? Because I don't see any exceptions in it for those people who want to get out, who want to just sell and run. If it were really for the motive of protecting the people, the people would still have there option and freedom to initiate the action themselves. 

I like the notion of protecting peoples privacy to process. What I don't like is seeing the removal of peoples options and freedoms to self select and engage in what they want to do. 

Have you seen the ammo vending machines? 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/12/us/vending-machines-ammunitio...

Here is a fundamental flaw to Sub2, that this situation seems to exemplify.

Ever hear of Prospect Theory? 

In short it's this: Seller is facing foreclosure nightmare. In theory they've tried all they can and are stuck on stupid feeling there life is about to be burnt to the ground. 

They are singularly focused to avoid the pain. 

So along comes Mr Sub2, singing how he will waive his hand and make the bad go away.

Seller is singularly focusing on that bad, nothing else, not a year later, just the here n now of making that bad go away. So they jump on it with both hands. 

Now were a year, 2, whatever later. The bad is long gone in the rear view mirror so now, that motivation of making the bad go away, has gone away. 

Now seller has other motives. Like in this case, wanting a new home. 

So now they start doing things to scratch that itch, and it starts unraveling the "perfect" Sub2 deal.

You contact them, say what the heck. But you don't find the same person you did back when. They are just a bit different, not so ecstatic to facilitate all your stuff as once was. Well duh, because that motive to alleviate the bad is gone. 

So now your scrambling, going onto forums trying to figure out how to get it all back to the Nirvana it was. And the "perfect" Sub2 deal ain't looking so "perfect" anymore.

And so you blame the seller, it's there fault, why couldn't they just be nervous Ned for all eternity. 

The fault is you tried to stretch a "solution" that has an expiration date of seller joy, into an eternity. You didn't think about there life, where there motives will shift too, what comes next 1, 2, 5 years down the road. 

The strategy was built on sand. 

Sub2 needs to be viewed like Hard Money. It's a bridge, not the road.

Huh, that's weird Richard because you opened this post that you just "found" this and were asking about it.....

But you seem to respond as if your SELLING this.... 

Hmmmmmm.... 

Hey, here's a weird idea. How about clarity and up front honesty. 

If it's so great, then why the deceptive advertising/marketing tactics?