All Forum Posts by: James Hamling

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

@Ken M. the info I can find seems to reiterate what @Chris Seveney is saying, and seems common sense to me, that default - foreclosure is far from a 1:1 ratio. 

For argument sake, let's say the ratio of default - foreclosure is double heck even triple the ratio Chris mentions, let's call it 30%. 

That's 300k properties making there way through from this million home headline. 

Next question people should have is what's the absorption rate? 

What's absorption rate James? 

Well, simply put it's the ready demand to snatch-up those properties that could come to market. 

Now, again I'd hope the ever so illusive "common sense" would come to play. But in case if you hadn't noticed, there is a whole heck of a lot of demand. In other words, the sponge is so dang dry and THIRSTY for more properties. 

Here in MN Twin Cities for SFH's we see inventory pacing just under 1 month, around 0.7 as of this writing for range of median market home.

To put this in context it's currently the 4th lowest inventory level I have ever seen IN MY LIFE for this market. Only '21', '22', and '23' ever so barely beat it with #1,2 and 3 spots. It is considered a "Sellers Market" at or below 3.0 mnths supply. 

So from where I sit, I say please PLEASE bring us another ~2k homes per month! The market needs em. And even then, that # only get's us back to 2020 inventory levels when we saw as high as 2 months supply of inventory. 

In case math isnt a friend, 300k foreclosed homes is 25k per month, spread across the entire USA. 

In USA there is, averaged out, about 358k SFH's sold every month. 25k foreclosures is a drop in the bucket.

This isn't '08'/'09' where absorption rate effectively went to near 0 overnight. 

It's a good headline though, I bet it get's a whole bunch of traffic, views, clicks and sells a boat load of advertising. 

And there in lies the rub, it's just a headline designed to sell advertising. Not to inform and educate people. Journalism is all but dead. Long live the click-bait..... 

.

as @Minna Reid said 

"Wow - another extension - you're right I just looked it up. Til Feb 2026 now"

Wha . . . .??

Oh well, there goes the can down the road with a big "kick"
 

One of my proudest moments when flipping was when I got approved from Wells Fargo to buy direct REO, in volume. Getting "tapes" directly.

Shortly after BOA followed. 

It was at that moment, as i was paroozing through the lists like a kid in a candy shop that it dawned on me just what a colossal mess they must be in because I, this punk from MN got in on what I really didn't think I should have. 

And they were. I knew an asset manager at W.F. which detailed the colossal fubar it all was. 

But that chaotic mess was so bad, well the squeeky wheel get's the grease, and boy oh boy did they lube the heck out of it. 

Today it's such a different world. They could handle '08' volume again without breaking a sweat. Ok, maybe a bead or two of sweat but point is, that opportunity we once had was from the collapse meet's total non-existence of a system to handle it. That's done n gone, we will never see the likes ever again, NEVER. 

They got systems and process's in place easily a thousand fold what '09' was. 

Kick the can, don't kick the can, it doesn't matter. Systems exist to readily handle '08' 2.0.. 

To get to anything similar to what we enjoyed in '09'-'12' it's gotta be on level of depression. And if that happens, were gonna be too busy fighting a hobo for a chicken leg to worry about buying any properties. 

 Ok, to summarize this whole thread: 

Virgil says: I can help you get FREE MONEY. No interest, NO risk, Super EASY, no downside just cheap easy $$$$. Don't think just JUMP! 

Don K. says: Liar LIAR pant's on fire !

Jay H. says: Damn Son, those smoldering pant's sure do look warm. 

Virgil replies: SHUUUSH! Your scaring the marks...... er, people away I'm trying to scam.... er, "educate"....... 

And ChatGPT says: Stop using me for all your scamy BS Virgil! 

Yup, there ya go folk's, the SHORT-short version. 

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Stephanie Medellin:

PSA to any investors pursuing homes in default, especially where the owners still have equity: be aware of special rules within your state regarding contracts when the homeowner is in default.  These rules may not apply if you're buying as an owner occupant, but there may be additional protections for distressed property owners when an investor is buying the home.  Be sure you are using the correct contract for this scenario.  

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You raise a very valid point: Investors Beware

Investors Sued For Working With Foreclosures and for Doing SubTo And Doing Some Pretty Deceptive Things -  

Will Lose ALL Properties If Found Guilty, Face Fines and Jail Time And Will Be Prevented From Dealing With Real Estate Again - 

All Parties Are Presumed Innocent Until Proven Guilty In A Court of Law (Lawsuit alone is going to cost each of them $25,000 in legal fees and a year and a half in court) And NO, Your Guru won't be paying your legal fees, but he will be right there with you, answering the Judge to protect himself.

Click to expand - Read The Full Thing, ( warning it gets pretty nasty)

Here ya go - release was March 14, 2025

https://www.azag.gov/press-release/attorney-general-mayes-su... Release

https://www.azag.gov/sites/default/files/2025-03/CV2025-0084... Lawsuit (Click to read full lawsuit)

They give the identities of two partners and call the third - Partner "C" plus dozens of "not yet named"

 What are the odd's that once they get into those title co's and law firms they keep pulling at the threads to uncover other similar operations and it just keeps going n going n going n going.........

@Ken M. the info I can find seems to reiterate what @Chris Seveney is saying, and seems common sense to me, that default - foreclosure is far from a 1:1 ratio. 

For argument sake, let's say the ratio of default - foreclosure is double heck even triple the ratio Chris mentions, let's call it 30%. 

That's 300k properties making there way through from this million home headline. 

Next question people should have is what's the absorption rate? 

What's absorption rate James? 

Well, simply put it's the ready demand to snatch-up those properties that could come to market. 

Now, again I'd hope the ever so illusive "common sense" would come to play. But in case if you hadn't noticed, there is a whole heck of a lot of demand. In other words, the sponge is so dang dry and THIRSTY for more properties. 

Here in MN Twin Cities for SFH's we see inventory pacing just under 1 month, around 0.7 as of this writing for range of median market home.

To put this in context it's currently the 4th lowest inventory level I have ever seen IN MY LIFE for this market. Only '21', '22', and '23' ever so barely beat it with #1,2 and 3 spots. It is considered a "Sellers Market" at or below 3.0 mnths supply. 

So from where I sit, I say please PLEASE bring us another ~2k homes per month! The market needs em. And even then, that # only get's us back to 2020 inventory levels when we saw as high as 2 months supply of inventory. 

In case math isnt a friend, 300k foreclosed homes is 25k per month, spread across the entire USA. 

In USA there is, averaged out, about 358k SFH's sold every month. 25k foreclosures is a drop in the bucket.

This isn't '08'/'09' where absorption rate effectively went to near 0 overnight. 

It's a good headline though, I bet it get's a whole bunch of traffic, views, clicks and sells a boat load of advertising. 

And there in lies the rub, it's just a headline designed to sell advertising. Not to inform and educate people. Journalism is all but dead. Long live the click-bait..... 

On the Stock market, as an Active Trader, here is some context. 

Tesla has lost nearly half it's "value" as of recent and do you know the P/E it's trading at? About 100. 

To put this in terms Ford, who has NOT lost half it's "value" is around a P/E of 7...... No not 70, SEVEN. 

Palantir who's come way down is still trading at a P/E above 400..... 

Tech had been trading up to INSANE valuations. Valuations that make zero sense what so ever. There revenues and profits would have had to DOUBLE annually, for multiple years consecutively just to get into a "normal" P/E range. 

It has been a Tech-Bubble.

No secret to this, it's only been talked about over-n-over for months and years. 

Hence why this is being called a CORRECTION. 

You can't CORRECT something that's a-ok fine, right? No, BROKEN messed up WRONG things get..... CORRECTED. 

Just do some research, look up if a P/E over 100 is "normal". Ok, now look up a P/E over 200, 300, 400..... Around 200-300 ai is going to start replying with laughing emoji's saying "are you dumb, that's BONKERS". 

Buffet got out saying things were overdue for a correction. Why? Because of this simple math, because it was into fantasy land valuations. 

Nothing new to this bubble, we have seen bubbles many times before. Dot-com was a similar one. 

I will put some belief into the notion of the market suffering when McDonalds isn't pacing record highs as it is. It's at $304 up from $236 YOY. 

Like SOOOoooo much other BS media today it's FAKE NEWS! Spin spin SPIN. 

Taking a real thing and spinning it to fit a narrative of why. 

"Oh no fear tariff's"..... Home Depot (HD), yes "OMG" it's down too $354..... Back near it's $310 1yr ago and only up a 2X+ multiple from it $126 5yrs ago.......     

So if we had HONEST news headlines it would be something more like "Oh No, valuations coming back closer to normal sanity levels and only a few multiples of what they were a few short years ago.....". 

I am so exhausted of the non-stop onslaught of SPIN and people regurgitating headlines without any context or efforts to verify validity.... 

He called Social Security a Ponzi because by the very definition of Ponzi, IT IS: 

It is NOT supported by the monies that were put into it, because not only were those monies NOT properly invested even in something as simple as Treasury Bonds, but instead it's been used as a slush-fund to finance this that n the other thing NOT S.S. related. 

The system is on a path to very soon be bankrupt. Because, as any Ponzi works, it's only able to make payout's from there being an ever increasing # of people "investing" into it than deducting. 

And that math is not holding. Boomers retiring out and following generations NOT engaging in productive work in sufficient numbers = insolvency. 

I would think any person would applaud an audit that finds millions of fraudulent recipients of S.S.. Every fraudulent recipient found = more $ for the legit recipients. 

I just don't comprehend the argument of "NO, don't find fraud and waste, how dare you look for fraud and waste, NO we want fraud & waste"...... 

I don't care what party you lay claim to, if your going to audit the Gov. and ferrit out any fraud and waste I applaud you, and thank you. I pay tax's, I don't want them wasted. And only way to know is via SERIOUS audit's, not "oh so-n-so said nothing to see, don't bother looking". 

If D's would have done this 2 years ago it would be meet with nothing but applause. And yes, could have been via Elon when Elon was still a card carrying D. I am certain it would have been nothing but accolades for Elon. 

What will happen to Social Security at this pace is it will be SAVED. Insolvency staved off for additional many years by catching and removing fraudulent recipients, however many there is. So the $ goes to LEGIT ones. It's not complicated math. 

As for your theoretical losses on STR's, let us know when you actually have some losses. So far it's just "oh what if"..... By your own words you havn't lost a cent. Your just in fear of a possible future vacancy "if, if, if....".

I'm not an R and sure as hell not a D anymore. So don't play the partisanship BS as an excuse for my words. I am part of the middle "sane" who is looking at things objectively. 

Stopping fraud and waste is a good thing, full-stop. 

You won't know what you have unless you look, in a SERIOUS concerted manner. As DOGE was created to do. 

Again, I don't care who does it, I'm glad it's being done. It should be done on a somewhat regular schedule. Federal Gov is the only business on earth that thinks operating for decades with 0 accountability or audit is a good thing. 

@Alan Asriants I hear you inferring a premise that one "can't" make $ or be successful in Sec8 investing. 

That's simply not true. @Mark Cruse is a living example to this. I myself as well was with a team that very successfully operated in sec8, at scale with multi-markets/states. 

Now if saying it's not simple, that sec8 rental business is NOT "mailbox money" I 1,000% agree and I believe Mark C. would as well. 

Sec8 investing is it's own business and if one neglects to PROPERLY operate it as such, yes there is going to be pain and suffering. Such is business in general. If you try to run a fine dining sit down like a McDonalds your gonna have troubles. 

That is the #1 issue I see in Sec8. And in the Sec8 Landlording world this has long been the issue. People with no real knowledge, experience or intent of engaging in it as it's own business segment. Novices focused on the "cheap" asset price and ASSUMING the "guaranteed rents" and significant tenant pool creates some "easy" stage of operating. 

I see people in red-hot A & B class asset's and areas do same/similar mistakes and suffer the consequences of ignorance and laziness. 

I have one group I am working with right now who have been hemorrhaging cash on a group of B-class asset's in an A-class market where I have a slew of properties ironically some just blocks away, that a running like champ's. 

The difference from my stellar portfolio and there's drenched in red, is in HOW we run operations. 

Is Sec8 a LOT more active than A-class, that should be a "Duh" moment, of course it is. 

But just because one has to use more intelligence, have greater care of methodology, have people skills, does not make it "bad". 

It's about FIT. 

Fitting a persons skills, resources, time and temperament with the investment/ business structure and requirements. 

Sec8 requires human skills. 

And in my experience there generally is no good PM to just hire out for Sec8 PM. I am sure there may be some out there but my experiences were failure after let-down after half-azz performance. We only realized success after internalizing it. 

There is such a thing as good people who just so happen to be poor. Poor in $ but not in character. They do exist. 

But again, I can't stress enough how Sec8 is a unique business model to itself. It's NOT passive, it's NOT "mailbox money", it's NOT for the "lazy" hand's off type who thinks there buying a paycheck. It's a BUSINESS. 

It's a tough business to operate, no doubt. 

But the differentiator is not the tenants or the assets themself, it's in the operator and the operations by far and above. 

I'm a realist first and foremost. 

If you abolish property tax's, the day after sales tax goes up something like 75%, state income tax's go up multipliers, all local government city, county and state will shot through the roof. Because remember about 50% of people pay no income tax's so not only does the burden to pay for everything property tax's paid fall onto tax payors a different way, but it falls onto a segment of them. 

It would be economic suicide. 

When you have a tenant residing in a property, they are paying the property tax's via rent's. 

Now imagine all that GONE in a blink. And all the landlords now pickup all those bills. 

It WONT be more $ for landlords. It only means tax'd differently. Because Landlords are income PRODUCERS. So flip it all too income tax's or sales tax's would be devastating. 

The $ has to come from somewhere, end of story. 

Even if government prints the $ into existence it STILL comes from us because inflation = higher costs of goods and services. 

Any way you slice it you gotta pay the butchers bill. 

Context is paramount and there is a lot of details to take into account for context here. 

In theory one could bring Rico against a governmental body BUT, keep in mind Rico is for "criminal enterprise". So it would require a framework that the Governmental body is in the actions of a "Criminal Enterprise". I can't picture how one get's there. 

Next, Mitch start's it off by detailing a legal strategy of overwhelming "them" via volume of suits filled, and the cost to defend against such. Better known as "Lawyering them out". 

That tells me the significant doubt's he himself has in it's validity. Not to mention he's talking about ending property tax in totality. 

Next, highlighting the tax assessed land and improvements values, talking about them being incorrect vs what they feel would be at an actual sale, inferring tax assessments are to be exact accurate as in if it were to be sold it would get that amount.     Appraisals are a price OPINION, and OPINION on value. And tax assessed value is NOT an appraisal, so even lower bar of accuracy.

Stating "if I were to sell this place I think it would actually get ___" doesn't matter. Because that itself is also an OPINION. It's arguing an OPINION vs another OPINION. Anyone who's come through litigation of a case knows damages have to be realized not theorized. 

A property would need to have been sold, in a setting where one can prove the appraised amount was in such excess that it proves the OPINION on value was outside of acceptable deviations of an OPINION and thus some form of fraud. 

Back to the Rico thing, this has to be at scale, not a 1 here and 1 there. 

Right off top of head I know of countless sales where sold $ was far in excess of the tax assessed value. So I am betting for every 1 shown where sold $ is less, there is 20, 50, 100 sold where sold $ was MORE than tax assessed. 

The argument that increasing property tax's become unaffordable by some home owners may be good click-bait or news headlines but it's legally nothing. This is a component of a free market economy. Nobody has a "right" for sales tax or any other tax to remain "affordable". 

Think of it this way: All the people who got the ARM's back in the day, that then the reset payment's became unaffordable..... Did they have a "right" for the payment to be kept "affordable"?

The premise laid out is, Government over-spending, surviving on debt, running a deficit, hemorrhaging more and more $ in interest, and thus raising tax's to cover the ballooning debt service. 

They say it with degrees of surprise and shock. That's standard operating procedure for US Government. 

It's exactly the battle we have going on at Federal level, trying to do quazi-austerity actions and other actions to turn it all around before the debt and service on the debt bankrupts the nation and it all comes crashing down. 

I have no idea the point of going after appraisers. Appraisers don't set the tax rates, so that just hog-wash to even mention going after appraisers, they have 0 control of anything other than JUST the appraisal/assessment of the property. AND they have a process for an owner to argue there assessment. 

Bonds are a thing often voted upon so I have no idea how you come back and sue about a bond that was voted for. 

So sue for what, the politicians raising tax's? Sue for them doing a bad job? 

Property valuation is set by what property trades at. I don't see how one can blame an appraiser for the data they legally had to use of sold comp's to say what the value accurately was. 

Assessors come to tax assessed off that, which is again what properties are trading at. ie the market is setting the price. 

has there been gross over spending by Government? Well DUH. The shock that the chickens come home to roost on this in form of higher tax's is childish. Again, DUH. 

How any of this is fraud, more or less Rico...... 

To me all this seems like savvy click-bait. I don't know either of the persons in the video but if they are selling programs..... yeah, there ya-go..... 

Again, 100% Gov in D.C., at state capitol or at county, yes 100% waste & over spending, debt debt debt up the wazoo. That's not criminal, it's not a crime to be dumb. And we the people have happily gone along with the stupidity for generations ignoring the OBVIOUS math that at some time the credit limit would run out and servicing payments would hurt. 

Huh, well look at that, the convicted Sex Offender (PREDATOR) wasn't a fan of being called out...... Surprise surprise. 

This fruit, oh-man going through his FBI conviction file was just stomach turning.

And here he is straight out the klink from 78mnth sentence ranting how good/ safe/ fine chomo's are...... 

Seriously, his file was shocking. Years of doing it, across numerous states, multitude of victims........  

I just can't wrap my head around how a person does such things. 14 yr young little girls....... Sick-sick-sick.......