5 Main Reasons Why the Real Estate Market Won't Crash

[Michael Keith]

The real estate market is often the subject of speculation and forecasts, some predicting downturns or even crashes. However, based on my extensive experience and observation in the field, I believe there are strong reasons to maintain confidence in the stability of this market. Here are the five main reasons:

1. Strong Housing Demand

Demand for housing remains robust, driven by factors like population growth and demographic shifts. The National Association of Realtors' studies indicate that this consistent demand, particularly in urban and suburban areas, underpins the market's resilience.

2. Limited Housing Supply

The current housing inventory is notably low. This trend, highlighted in reports by the U.S. Census Bureau, helps maintain property values by preventing market oversaturation – a crucial factor that differentiates today's market from those of the past.

3. Stringent Lending Standards

Since 2008, lending practices have significantly tightened. The Mortgage Bankers Association points out that higher credit score requirements and larger down payments are now the norm, leading to a healthier market with fewer risky loans.

4. Diversification in Real Estate

Investors and homeowners today often have diversified real estate portfolios. According to the Harvard Business Review, this diversification helps mitigate local market fluctuations, contributing to the overall stability of the real estate sector.

5. Supportive Economic Indicators and Policies

Current economic indicators, such as low unemployment rates, along with supportive fiscal policies, favor a stable real estate market. Government interventions, like those during the COVID-19 pandemic, also demonstrate a commitment to sustaining the market.

Conclusion:

While no market is without its cycles, the real estate sector shows strong signs of stability and resilience. These factors, coupled with my professional observations, reassure me that a market crash is not imminent. Real estate remains a viable and valuable investment.

Michael Keith is a seasoned professional in real estate, leading the Michael Keith Team with a focus on delivering expert advice and insights into the real estate market.

[Andrew Syrios]

I think this is generally true (in fact I wrote an article saying the same thing a year and a half ago and so far it's been correct: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/this-housing-market-isnt-...)

I don't think it's going to be good though. Linger along, maybe a little appreciation (or depreciation) and low inventory. But it won't crash IMO

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

So some folks are selling SFHs now in large masses to transfer into t-bills in the short period(4-8 week duration) then enter 2024 with funds to come into CRE to convert into storage, MFH(with better terms), and I think some other plays. These are players like invitation homes, american

For Multifamily it's already open secret that every MF GP group gonna buy the previously 4%cap apartment into 6.0-6.5% cap in 2025.

There would be lot of opportunity starting from end of next year. Multifamily definitely would be the wildest in term of re-pricing, some group gonna be filing bankruptcy while some other guy would win big time when they sell their purchase (in 2025) into 2029-2032 timeframe.

What's very wrong (that happened before) is the cap rate during covid is accelerating too fast into Q2 2022 when Fed started rising rate. But this cycle doesn't push back the residential market. This are truly amazing and miracle actually to see how almost similar asset class react differently into the same interest rate event. 

Personally, If I invested into the wrong investment in 2019, I would be wiped out as well, luckily I invested into the right asset. I am lucky but not everyone is lucky.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

another reason why residential market would not crash in 2024 is this. T Fidelity has withdrawn substantial amount from Repo.
It's just so hard to explain the reasoning but i said this is one of the most beautiful chart ever.

[Nathaniel Epps]

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Here is where your statement is flawed. Supply and demand is at an all time low. The only thing likely to increase with this coming recession is supply. Only then will we see the rapid decline in the housing market.

 Where is the supply going to come from? If developers aren’t building because it cost too much due to inflation, and why would developers spend all this money to build and then take a loss on the sale? I think we’re still going to face a shortage problem until rates and inflation comes down. I don’t really see a crash like people are thinking. I know everyone wants 2008 to happen again especially the investors I just don’t see it happening.

[Ramsin Jacob]

Couldn't have said it any better!

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

 Man I really need to pin down your reply here as everything is the accurate trend. @James Hamling may want to read it as well.
So in summary :

- The fed let the Tech industry aggressively trim payrol --> (this is happening from MSFT to startup level)
- let some banking entities collapse and also do some large payroll cuts --> (from Schwabb to Citibank)
- They've also destroyed the logistics business. --> (lot of layoffs in trucking biz)

- The Fed is totally okay with letting CRE fail (yes, as written by therealdeal)
This is an acceptable fall, but that is where some massive SFH syndications
and equity funds are now selling to buy into----> if you could describe this more?? it would be the best


What the Fed hasn't done yet, or what hasn't happened yet is retail payroll getting crushed-->correct.
But retail has trimmed physical footprint to defeat that---> yes, lot of store closing, but gov would say it's
retail/walgreens issue or Amazon issue


I think people look at the wrong numbers sometimes, but yes in general jobless claims need to and will rise---->
yes, more white collar job is affected but since they are rich in cash and rich in equity, that's not translate
into home price reduction so far.

More and more evidence is showing that home price appreciation occured because of migration or transfer of wealth
rather than the strength of local economy. If there's local boom in industry we should see the effect in immediate
term not in short tem, so what really happened in 2020-2022 is really big mistake by Fed.

Also it seems very natural that in the next ten years we see lot of consolidation in the big business, much less small biz owner, and everything is owned by the conglomeration of some very powerful big names that generates cash from their operation.

America is going to be more controlled by big company regardless who is in power in the goverment.

 Remember when James mentioned lots of consolidation in a different thread, it also seems like there may be more small banks going under. Anecdotally look how many BofA branches are closing in the Bay Area 

Yea.... this is all getting very interesting :
- we know all American banks going to collapse if they have to sell their HTM bonds tomorrow
- BofA and Citibank has them most riskiest position, as well as Schwabb.
- Lot of layoffs in those companies 
- Do you read the news that Signature Bank that collapsed in March is actually the largest asset holder of core-stabilized asset ? And blackrock is leading purchase of their loan :-) LOL LOL So blackrock maybe buying with 30% discount ;-) again, consolidation by Blackrock and JP morgan
- rather than going to TARP 2.0 , the gov. would just ask JPM to purchase those banks and Fed would inject free liquidity.
- 8% years from now, everything is owned by Blackrock and JP Morgan. More consolidation by the biggest banks and asset management company.

 There's a hedge fund with a separate securities arm and total company, that is going to enter those two in these things. They see opportunity in this. There's also a very underappreciated fund that will be a distant 4th but likely the best of quality. Both of these funds have mentioned this direction to their private investors a lot since Nov 1.

For small businesses holding high liquidity, many are spread out amongst the big banks, where would you suggest they $ go?

 so what really happened is unrealized HTM loss doesn't need to be recorded in the book so they dont have to sell it EXCEPT if there's massive withdraw from customer AKA bank runs.
It's the bank run that causing the bank to collapse.

So in theory you can avoid issue by saving the money that has the smaller holding of HTM paper or invest in the bank where there're more incoming asset coming-in. I would say JP Morgan is the safest now as they're the pseudo goverment LOL

here's the paper to know which bank is safer:
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12232#:~:te... doesn't work on phone, brief synapses?

 try again :

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12232#:~:text=Unrealized%20gains%20and%20losses%20on,not%20intend%20to%20sell%20them

as summary what would happen in 2024 is dictated by the bank that listed in page 2. 

usually, bank crash/run occured when gov/Fed think slow to react to something (like in SVB/Signature bank case), since they also don't know what will happen, we also don't know, but what we know now is we know who would be in trouble. And who would save them.

IMO The most likely scenario is a "silent insolvency" that threatens to, starts to, or shows potential to, spread systemically. 

This scenario could take shape in form of: Housing Corp. A hold's a portfolio of 4,250 unit's. With a few month's before some note's expire they send notice unto their regional lender inviting lender into a negotiation of consideration because there intentions are if a mitigated arrangement can not be meet, with market rate offerings on debt not tenable, there going to walk away and exercise strategic default. 

It equates a significant dollar total, but not one that would put the regional lender under itself. Still, enough to rise to an action item addressed at top level, and with communications of such reaching beyond the regional lender itself. This is important, because when a week later a different customer sends same communication on a portfolio of nearly 7k unit's, followed days later by another at nearly 4K unit's, now panic start's to set in. 1 was a issue, the 2 a gut punch, but know it's getting serious. Regional lender know's this would put them outside of passing stress-test markers. 

And when communication's move up-chain and come to find this same scenario has been playing out at several regional lenders.... Yeah.... 

So here is the thing, the regional lenders who hold the lion's share of risk exposure in this scenario, they don't have to go insolvent to be in many way's, considered or viewed insolvent. If that insolvency is viewed as an impending certainty, or something systemic moving rapidly there, it can press actions to be taken and there is nothing those lenders can do to stop it. Including giant swaths of there books being taken and transferred to a "servicer" of capacity. 

In other word's being told half there business is now gone and handed to JP. Or 3/4, or who know's what but in end, there left a shadow of what they were prior. 

And with a singular "simple" quite "stimulus" trillion handed to JP to "provide liquidity" to "Protect" creditors/ business/ Americans/ etc etc pick your slogan, we the American tax payers just funded the single largest hostile take over in human history. 

No, not a hostile take over in the purest sense of the term, they didn't get the business's themself, but they took the business from the business's. And they got paid to do it all, thrice really. They were given the asset's, given the $ to carry or off-set carrying them, and then get the ongoing $ and returns. 

But hey, what a bunch of great "hero's" they all are. They handed out new debt at '18' rates "saving" the business's and all they could do and "save", ooohhhh how we should sing song's of these great "saviors" to us all.... and ignore that they did it with OUR MONEY, consolidating trillions in business that had been compiled over decades of effort by hundreds/thousands of business, all unto 1 national to-big-to-fail goliath.     

A silent collapse, that never hit the ground. Record profit's for all involved. And the people applaud as they grow poorer. Plutocratic Politics at it's finest.... 

[Kristi K.]

@James Hamling And with a singular "simple" quite "stimulus" trillion handed to JP to "provide liquidity" to "Protect" creditors/ business/ Americans/ etc etc pick your slogan, we the American tax payers just funded the single largest hostile take over in human history.

But no one talks about this and a big % of the people reading this don't have a clue what you are talking about!

[Marcus Auerbach]

Institutionals make up just a tiny fraction of the market, not enough to move the needle even a little. Migration will be a much larger force, as it has been for the last few years.

The next years will bring a rebalancing of local markets. Affordability is at crisis level in many States, while it is still acceptable in others, mostly the Midwest markets. Money always flows where it can buy the most value, but even in the age of remote work, migration trends take time years if not a decade to unfold.

Inflation is the devaluation of currency. Home prices on the other hand adjust to the cost of labor and materials. And while the Fed is trying to suck money out of the system, progress is slow, and when money supply grows faster than GDP the value of the currency has to adjust.

  Milwaukee is the typical example of how this plays out: we are currently the #6 hottest market in the US. Migration is only a small component of the demand (but rising nontheless). Household formations are the primary driver. Demographic trends are very powerful and not easily suceptible to short lived trends or changes of public opinion. As the south is getting hotter and dryer and the Midwest will become increasingly interesting. 

[Alan F.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

 Man I really need to pin down your reply here as everything is the accurate trend. @James Hamling may want to read it as well.
So in summary :

- The fed let the Tech industry aggressively trim payrol --> (this is happening from MSFT to startup level)
- let some banking entities collapse and also do some large payroll cuts --> (from Schwabb to Citibank)
- They've also destroyed the logistics business. --> (lot of layoffs in trucking biz)

- The Fed is totally okay with letting CRE fail (yes, as written by therealdeal)
This is an acceptable fall, but that is where some massive SFH syndications
and equity funds are now selling to buy into----> if you could describe this more?? it would be the best


What the Fed hasn't done yet, or what hasn't happened yet is retail payroll getting crushed-->correct.
But retail has trimmed physical footprint to defeat that---> yes, lot of store closing, but gov would say it's
retail/walgreens issue or Amazon issue


I think people look at the wrong numbers sometimes, but yes in general jobless claims need to and will rise---->
yes, more white collar job is affected but since they are rich in cash and rich in equity, that's not translate
into home price reduction so far.

More and more evidence is showing that home price appreciation occured because of migration or transfer of wealth
rather than the strength of local economy. If there's local boom in industry we should see the effect in immediate
term not in short tem, so what really happened in 2020-2022 is really big mistake by Fed.

Also it seems very natural that in the next ten years we see lot of consolidation in the big business, much less small biz owner, and everything is owned by the conglomeration of some very powerful big names that generates cash from their operation.

America is going to be more controlled by big company regardless who is in power in the goverment.

 Remember when James mentioned lots of consolidation in a different thread, it also seems like there may be more small banks going under. Anecdotally look how many BofA branches are closing in the Bay Area 

Yea.... this is all getting very interesting :
- we know all American banks going to collapse if they have to sell their HTM bonds tomorrow
- BofA and Citibank has them most riskiest position, as well as Schwabb.
- Lot of layoffs in those companies 
- Do you read the news that Signature Bank that collapsed in March is actually the largest asset holder of core-stabilized asset ? And blackrock is leading purchase of their loan :-) LOL LOL So blackrock maybe buying with 30% discount ;-) again, consolidation by Blackrock and JP morgan
- rather than going to TARP 2.0 , the gov. would just ask JPM to purchase those banks and Fed would inject free liquidity.
- 8% years from now, everything is owned by Blackrock and JP Morgan. More consolidation by the biggest banks and asset management company.

 There's a hedge fund with a separate securities arm and total company, that is going to enter those two in these things. They see opportunity in this. There's also a very underappreciated fund that will be a distant 4th but likely the best of quality. Both of these funds have mentioned this direction to their private investors a lot since Nov 1.

For small businesses holding high liquidity, many are spread out amongst the big banks, where would you suggest they $ go?

 so what really happened is unrealized HTM loss doesn't need to be recorded in the book so they dont have to sell it EXCEPT if there's massive withdraw from customer AKA bank runs.
It's the bank run that causing the bank to collapse.

So in theory you can avoid issue by saving the money that has the smaller holding of HTM paper or invest in the bank where there're more incoming asset coming-in. I would say JP Morgan is the safest now as they're the pseudo goverment LOL

here's the paper to know which bank is safer:
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12232#:~:text=Unrealized%20gains%20and%20losses%20on,not%20intend%20to%20sell%20them).

 Link doesn't work on phone, brief synapses?

 try again :

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12232#:~:text=Unrealized%20gains%20and%20losses%20on,not%20intend%20to%20sell%20them

as summary what would happen in 2024 is dictated by the bank that listed in page 2. 

usually, bank crash/run occured when gov/Fed think slow to react to something (like in SVB/Signature bank case), since they also don't know what will happen, we also don't know, but what we know now is we know who would be in trouble. And who would save them.

 Big thanks Carlos, yeah page 2 SMH. Really appreciate all of the folks sharing info on this thread, time for another bottle of antacid lol.

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @Account Closed:

Quote from @Michael Keith:

The real estate market is often the subject of speculation and forecasts, some predicting downturns or even crashes. However, based on my extensive experience and observation in the field, 

I think your timeline is too short.

We bought the house we raised the kids in for $79,000 in 1986. Today it's listed at $1,200,000 - that's a 15 times increase. I was making about $60,000 a year at the time.  

To buy the same house today, you would need to make $900,000 to keep the same ratios. The increase in housing costs is way out of line with incomes. 

The payment on a $1,200,000 property with 20% down, which is putting $240,000 down, means the payment, without taxes and insurance at 8% is $7,044 per month for Principal & Interest, and you would have to make about $256,000 annually (instead of $60,000) to qualify. 

Feeling good about Bidenomics yet?

And this why median income household: price ratio is so important. Globally, not just domestically, it's how some folks are looking at investing with size(institutionally). This size= supply. An increase in supply to equal or surpass demand= lower prices. If the household income cannot keep up with sales prices, it's very hard to get a green light to increase supply. Yes, there are some exceptions(San Diego), but those cities are usually in such demand due to other reasons. And usually, institutional comes in kind of late which creates even more disruptive drops.

Then the another component is rebuilding supply at that parcel's value(cost to rebuild + land value)--and this is where a few levels lower(HNW) are taking valuations at. If this parcel is $80k and the cost to rebuild is $195/sq ft. Average house is 1,800 sq ft and this house is priced at $375,000 even(say 1800 sqft) with $2,500 in rent payments-- HNW buys with some other conditions passing too. Doesn't follow rules of 1% or other nonsense. You know the next similar infill lot + builder(even at scale) likely can't beat $375k to recreate. There best option is to re-create and price at $475k(against their 431k) and buy down buyer's rates or give concessions aggressively. What did that just do to your $375k purchase now? Just remarked it to the market. 

This is not just bidenomics fault, contributes sure but a lot more to it.

@Kristi K. yes, true. This is why it is weird seeing people looking to buy coaches & mentors, yet this board has some of the best insight....for free.

[Alan F.]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Account Closed:

Quote from @Michael Keith:

The real estate market is often the subject of speculation and forecasts, some predicting downturns or even crashes. However, based on my extensive experience and observation in the field, 

I think your timeline is too short.

We bought the house we raised the kids in for $79,000 in 1986. Today it's listed at $1,200,000 - that's a 15 times increase. I was making about $60,000 a year at the time.  

To buy the same house today, you would need to make $900,000 to keep the same ratios. The increase in housing costs is way out of line with incomes. 

The payment on a $1,200,000 property with 20% down, which is putting $240,000 down, means the payment, without taxes and insurance at 8% is $7,044 per month for Principal & Interest, and you would have to make about $256,000 annually (instead of $60,000) to qualify. 

Feeling good about Bidenomics yet?

And this why median income household: price ratio is so important. Globally, not just domestically, it's how some folks are looking at investing with size(institutionally). This size= supply. An increase in supply to equal or surpass demand= lower prices. If the household income cannot keep up with sales prices, it's very hard to get a green light to increase supply. Yes, there are some exceptions(San Diego), but those cities are usually in such demand due to other reasons. And usually, institutional comes in kind of late which creates even more disruptive drops.

Then the another component is rebuilding supply at that parcel's value(cost to rebuild + land value)--and this is where a few levels lower(HNW) are taking valuations at. If this parcel is $80k and the cost to rebuild is $195/sq ft. Average house is 1,800 sq ft and this house is priced at $375,000 even(say 1800 sqft) with $2,500 in rent payments-- HNW buys with some other conditions passing too. Doesn't follow rules of 1% or other nonsense. You know the next similar infill lot + builder(even at scale) likely can't beat $375k to recreate. There best option is to re-create and price at $475k(against their 431k) and buy down buyer's rates or give concessions aggressively. What did that just do to your $375k purchase now? Just remarked it to the market. 

This is not just bidenomics fault, contributes sure but a lot more to it.

@Kristi K. yes, true. This is why it is weird seeing people looking to buy coaches & mentors, yet this board has some of the best insight....for free.

 Your 1st paragraph, amazingly useful! 2nd paragraph yes! 

From 1 of the quiet kids in back of class

[Vinny NA]

Hey Michael,

Thanks for sharing your take on the real estate market! Your points make a lot of sense, especially with the solid demand, low housing supply, and stricter lending standards. It's good to know that the market's learned from past experiences and is taking steps to stay healthy.

[Henry Clark]

OP

First question is what is the persons REI interest? Your question is posed as a crash is a bad thing.

Slice dice REI participants:

RE investor-  yes or no to these questions.

Are you still scaling?

Are you invested?

How old are you?

Have or don’t have money or equity?

Are you an experienced REI?

Timing?

Market-  I’ll generalize.  $200,000; $500,000; $1,000,000.  800 sqft, 1,500 sqft, 2,000 sqft, 3,000 sqft

LTV%, amort term, balloon term?

Multi property same finance so you can cross collateralize different LTV positions?

Etc.

If a crash happened today that would be good for us.  If it happened after 6 months from now that would be over the moon great.

RE support function.  As a realtor, loan officer, trades, title, cleaner, supply store you always want more volume.  So it would be negative.

[Henry Clark]

OP back to your question. I’ll dissect this post so it’s not too long.

Demand.

 Locally there are not enough houses in the low, medium or high end for our market.  

Low end we will be better within the next 2 years as three housing developments come to market.  We are a town of 5,000; 20 minutes away from a 1mm metro area.

One is an old retirement home being repurposed into apartments, second is new townhome condos, third are SFH. All of these builders get $75,000 per unit from government funding. Houses or condos have to be below $250,000. Don't know the rent level in the apartment required.

Point is there is still a housing shortage and there are still funds supporting REI.

High end for our area.  We are doing country subdivisions of 2 to 8 acres, just selling lots only.  Our last one sold out in 13 months.  This one will take about 5 years due to location good but not great like the other one.  

We are a nice country community and lots of city people want to move out here.  2,000 sqft main floor covenant.  Houses and property are in the $600,000 to $2,000,000 range.  Lots range from $100,000 up to $250,000.

Mid range not a lot of inventory or product on the market for say $300,000 to $500,000.

[Henry Clark]

Op

Cost-  lumber.  

First cost decreases always lag cost increases in terms of speed of change. Apologize ahead of time if “Source of graph doesn’t show”. 

Lumber spiked to $1,750 per 1,000 board foot and now is down to $525.  $525 is still really high compared to $300 before the spike.  Spike was as a result of Trump tariff on Canadian lumber dumping practices and Covid shutting down logging, lumber mills and trucking.  So there is still a lot of downward potential for lumber.  Keep in mind contractors who had jobs bid before the spike got their heads handed to them if they weren’t cost us.  Those same contractors will now keep bids high for increased lumber costs even though they have dropped 2/3rds from their high.  

[Henry Clark]

OP

Cost- oil.  
Oil costs runs through everything due to plastic content or transportation costs.    Lumber cost, concrete cost windows, hardware, etc

We are at $75 per barrel of crude.  Got to $115 due to covid and “other” political moves.  There is still downside to $60 or lower or upside.  All depends who wins in the elections.  Will be an immediate impact either way.
Again cost declines are normally slower than increases.  Just got a concrete driveway poured.  Planned around $45,000, came in at $78,000.  That is a local cement plant issue, not an across the board issue.  But they are charging because they can.  Next plant is 20 miles away.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Kristi K.:

@James Hamling And with a singular "simple" quite "stimulus" trillion handed to JP to "provide liquidity" to "Protect" creditors/ business/ Americans/ etc etc pick your slogan, we the American tax payers just funded the single largest hostile take over in human history.

But no one talks about this and a big % of the people reading this don't have a clue what you are talking about!

I know, but mass ignorance does not change the reality of it any less.     And it would do people good to run down the rabbit-hole of research and education to gain comprehension to comprehend it, what it means. Because once one has that, they won't need me to point it out, they will see it all as obviously as I. 

The real "holly-cow" moment is realizing it's been in front of ones face the whole time. 

[Tim J.]

RE: the original post - Is this another case of someone trying to learn how to create content with ChatGPT?  Seems like it.

[Henry Clark]

OP-  So your post you haven’t engaged with.  

Cost - Steel

Background

Most recycled steel is made in the U.S.  Far far cheaper than virgin steel.  But virgin steel is required in most high tech or high tolerance uses.  

Virgin steel requires lots of energy for both mining and processing. China with free energy from the Yalu dam and coal, with less EPA constraints makes the cheapest virgin steel.  
. 

Due to Covid shipping backup steel went up due to closers from China.  Now the Panama Canal drought is not allowing as many shipments to come thru to the East cost.

Steel prices are not dropping like the oil and lumber in previous charts due to both transportation issues, China taking longer to open up after Covid and Port Unions on strike or slow downs.

There is pent up demand for steel thus it will not drop as fast.  Steel goes into lots of housing products.  We are postponing three projects because steel prices are to high.    
.   
We will have to go thru a recession for Steel supply and thus price decline to catch up.

[Henry Clark]

OP

Cost- Gypsum used for drywall.  You like drywall right.  Luckily we don’t use drywall in self storage.  Sorry you will have to expand to see mining by country.  

Unfortunately, although we have plenty of production for the U.S. the next two major producers are Iran and China.  If a void occurs due to either Iran or China reduction in production (that rhymes)  upward price pressure would be put on the U.S. supply from overseas causing both a price increase and a constraint on supplies.  

[Henry Clark]

OP

Trades People????    
See the graph of people by age below.  Disregard the male female split.  I’m in the part right above 60 at 63.  I’m retired.  Luckily I’m an Accountant so no impact on housing.  But a lot of the baby boomers from 55 and upwards are retiring from the trades.  Both of our electricians are retiring.  One of our sign contractors is retiring.  Our security guy had a stroke.  Our main building contractor is 85.  He’s probably going to retire.  He actually works.  See the dip between 40 to 60?  Not enough senior trades people.

See the group between 20 to 40?  They were told to go to college and go into debt.  They won’t fill the trades group in large enough levels.     
How’s housing looking?  Fewer houses being built means higher prices.

[Henry Clark]

OP

Market supply  Same graph we just looked at.  These are also home owners.

Im 63.  In 7 years we will sell our house.  Have a palm tree to go sit under already.  While I’m fishing. Point is, in about 10 years roughly 20mm houses will come to market as baby boomers age out.  
You remember from the last post there is a dip in population ages 40 to 60.  While more houses are coming on line, the demand will be going down.

While more houses are coming on line, demand will be going down.  Had to say that a second time.  

My son is 23. He wants to live in a big city in condo. Don't know if the rest of the 20 to 40 are like him. If so SFH demand will go down even further.

[Henry Clark]

OP

Financing-  both cash and interest rates.

Cash-  That 55 to 70 group has both a ton of tax free home equity (2of 5 years primary residence) and a lot of 401k minimum withdrawals to start.  They don’t need any loan to move.

Interest rates- back in the 70’s when the fed rate went to 20%, fed debt to National gdp was a small percentage.  We could tax, grow, print our way.  And we could pay the interest.  Now our national debt is $33T which is multiples of our national GDP.  Keep in mind national GDP is not tax revenue.  Plus the 60 to 80 population group is ready for their benefits.   So interest has to go down.  

Covid dollars have been spent.  Banks have to digest low yield loans versus high fed rates.

Material supplies are suspect thus housing growth is suspect, which means prices will stay high.

What are your thoughts? 

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Account Closed:

We are a private lender, located in Tampa, Florida, United States. we

lend money to borrowers nationwide and a few other countries

overseas who are looking to develop their businesses. We offer

personal loans, business loans & real estate loans, and 2%

referral/broker fees. Let me know your thoughts.

Regards,

Grace Helena Scott

National Financial Loan Inc.

cant advertise like this on BP forums.. mods will take it down.

[Kristi K.]

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Account Closed:

cant advertise like this on BP forums.. mods will take it down.

I guess she doesn’t care😬