All Forum Posts by: Marcus Auerbach

I was just curious is there ever a right time to buy a house like a lot of people around me say wait till the market goes down cause it’s high but like it always seems like it’s gonna keep going up you know I know there’s sometimes the moments where it goes down a little bit, but it’s always gonna go up no

Hi all - Dave Matthews here. I've got two properties now, townhome and single family, both rented. This will be my first year where I will be reporting ALL the rental income (some 60k or so). My question to you all is how in the world do folks deduct deduct deduct so that their tax burden on rental income is zero or close to it? I am worried that I will owe big in 2026... 

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Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

We don't have the labor to make more things in the US. 

We still have about 7.4 million open jobs and vs 7 million unemployed. You can't drive unemployment to zero. Anything under 5% is considered full employment. And we are at 4.1%. So while it sounds great to "bring jobs back" - who is going to do them?

And we also have a qualification problem. A modern auto factory does not require much unskilled labor. Material is moved by automated forklifts, and assembly is either done or assisted by robots to meet TQM standards. Much of what you need are engineers and highly skilled workers. We are already short on both.

I doubt that most of the 40% unemployed men of the inner city of Detroit are a good fit for a modern day manufacturing plant.

The Apple CEO Tim Cook said famously: people think we manufacture in China because labor is cheap. The real reason is they have a vast pool of HIGHLY qualified skilled labor.  Video.

I have spent almost 20 years working for a global manufacturer. For any machine that was produced in our US factory and the components needed to assemble the decision was to either fully automate the process to 24/7 production here in the US - or offshore to MX or CHN, the difference being the response time to change orders (6 months vs 6 weeks) due to geographic distance. MX kept us more flexible.

Here is a picture of the BMW plant in Spartenburg, SC and if you want to see the list of jobs they have it's here https://www.bmwgroup.jobs/us/en/location/location-spartanbur...

Why should we care about Apples phones etc.  If they aren't going to bring opportunity to Americans to buy a house, provide for a family then they are not a priority, if they go broke "thems the breaks".  They can take all the money they are spending sending missiles and weapons all across the world and get the folks in Detroit up to speed for those good jobs Apple has.  Americans don't need more technology, we need some good jobs that can create strong communities, towns, neighborhoods etc.  And if your business doesn't provide that then your business is not a priority.  Am I missing something?

Yes, I think you missed my point. It's not about Apple. The issue is: we have more open jobs than people looking for jobs. In other words: we don't need more jobs. And if we create more jobs, who is going to take them?

And a large portion of the people unemployed today have a qualification problem. Simple manual labor is not a thing anymore. You need automation engineers who can troubleshoot a FANUC 6-axis robot - and not a grunt to do heavy manual labor.

And you are not going to train a 40 year old unskilled laborer to become an engineer. Heck, who would even make the investment to pay for college with only 20 working years left to retirement?

Good jobs to create strong communities" sounds really great, we all want that, I am all for it. But the definition of what a good job looks like has changed. Give it another 3 or 5 years. Machines will be picking your strawberries, because they will do it cheaper, better and also at night.

We can recreate an economy like it was in the 80s with "Good jobs for hard working Americans". Tune back the technology. But the world will move on and the ones who say America is a dying empire will have been right.

People today have a qualification problem because the jobs have been shipped over to asia, and industries like timber has been crushed by regulation with the help of BlackRock etc so they can use cheaper labor and make more money.  Nike, Apple etc use these people in asia like slaves the governments are totally corrupt with no labor or environmental protection, impossible for us to compete with that.  The outsourcing of the nations wealth Wall Street and the corporate outsourcers took a huge cut off the top and sent it overseas.  Thats how I view it and that is why Trump was elected I believe.  If Apple can't make money building their technology or Nike can't build their dumb woke shoes here and make money I'm good with that let them go broke.  It took along time to get our population as fat and ignorant as they are today (God bless them, LOL) there could be alot of pain and time whipping our country back into shape.

I didn't know shoes can be woke, good thing I don't have any Nike lol. I agree that Wallstreet and turbo-capitalism took the wealth from the middle class, but the real question is weather it is feasible for us to on-shore production in a reasonable time, AND get wages up AND keep prices from shooting up so affordability gets better AND redistribute income back to the middle class.

It took as all of the 80s, 90s and 00s to offshore our manufacturing. Moving factories and building supply chains takes decades. Raising a workforce with the right qualifications takes a generation. And the sweatshop China you describe has been rapidly vanishing and is being replaced with hyper modern fully automated facilities. 

And you need a very qualified workforce to run them: 1.5 million engineers graduate every year in China, I believe we are just over 100,000

We are asking if we could re-open some of the mothballed factories that was designed to manually assemble a Ford Granada. Meanwhile, BYD is just finishing a car manufacturing plant the size of San Francisco - about 50 square miles large - that will produce a million cars per year. Highly automated factory, not a sweatshop. 

And the cars are amazing! I usually drive German SUVs, but every Chinese car I have driven in the last 2 years makes me realize that they are getting ahead in every aspect. For half the price

So, yeah - something has to change. We can't keep importing everything and the only thing we ship the other way is dollar bills. We do this long enough they have all the dollars and we have all the stuff. Then what?

First I think everyone needs to wrap there head around accepting the fundamental fact that the path USA was on only ends 1 way; INSOLVENCY. 

That is just a fact. And oddly enough, as much as people burry there head in the sand to it, countless experts have been sounding the alarms on this for literally years.

For years there has been a similar denial culture in South Africa. Friends and family would ask me and wife when back visiting of why don't we move back, why are we "suffering" in USA. And in many ways we were suffering in USA vs the lifestyle we could readily have in South Africa. 

But we saw the writing on the wall, the future was certain, we knew what was coming, the reaping of certain actions. 

Now, nobody has been able to swim on Durban beach for over a year because of the human waste, YES human feces river literally streaming out 24-7 and nothing being done to the infrastructure. 

Load shedding...... Imagine 4-7hrs of electricity a day, or less. Especially when hot. 

This is the future of USA if something DRASTIC is not done. The crisis in South Africa didn't happen over a few years, it was decades in the making. Decades of neglect, ignorance, can kicking, avoidance, corruption, fraud and sticking heads in the sand. Until finally the issues rupture so big it's all but impossible to deny the stench, very literally.

I don't think anyone sane is saying it will be easy in USA, but it's NECESSARY. 

How fast can it be? I'd argue speed comes from level of necessity. When the Japanese hit Pearl Harbor the USA was half foot into the war, or so it thought it was, and realized it was sooooo far under equipped or ready that it effectively was wholly unequipped or prepared. And the USA panicked BUT panicked with purpose. 

In lightning speed, no not decades, the USA built an industrial TITAN of manufacturing that out produced the entire axis forces to a scale of multiplication factors. 

It CAN be done. It HAS been done before. 

Labor, both skilled and unskilled CAN be trained, in scale, and at lightning speed. It has been done before. 

Necessity is the Mother of invention, but also the Father of motivation. 

CAN the USA? Well of course it can, it already has, and there was no playbook on how-to back then so absolutely no excuses this time around for "can we". 

The question, the question of all questions is; WILL WE....... 

The USA culture is still deeply entrenched in denialism. In it's own sense of grandiosity to even conceive it is anything less than the center of the universe and no nation can possibly compete more or less eclipse it. Despite all the facts and reality to the contrary. Still trying to coast on the steam of a generation lost to time. 

I do not think those under 45 have any concept of what's at stake. 

It's a question of will-power not infrastructure. USA has proven this before. If and when the will-power exists, nothing can't be done. Mountains will be moved, fleet's built, a sleeping giant will awaken.....

A great speech writer has been lost on you James! I get the picture.. and I am 50 BTW

Couple thoughts: if you read Ray Dalio you start to get a sense where the US was headed and that's not good. You can't maintain a 1.5T trade deficit forever, we are basically exporting money and then borrow it back. That is a terminal trajectory.

I don't know what the solution should be, but I think that turning a consumption-based economy (70% of GDP) into a production-based economy is no small feat. If it is possible at all!

It took China 30 years to rise, out of brutal necessity, and with massive economic help from the US. We WANTED them to make cheap stuff for us and they were beyond willing to do that. The US is a gigantic consumer and we kept blowing oxygen into that fire for decades and made it the world largest factory. If there would not have been a continuous stream of money from the US (and others) it would not have happened.

Who in the world would want buy US products (at scale) and why?

We would have to produce either better or cheaper.

The car industry makes it painfully clear that we are neither! Heck, it pains me to say, but even the German carmakers have lost that race to the Chinese in the last years on both accounts.

I love the idea of the US coming together for a massive cause and rally, we have to acknowledge that the leap that is required to do so is geometrically larger compared to WW2 efforts. 

Yes, you can train a farmboy to weld a crude Normandy-style landing boat in a couple weeks. You can't train an Amazon worker or truck driver to become a robotics engineer, not in a couple years, probably ever.

Here is a list of open jobs from the Tesla website to give you a sense:

Sr. Industrial Engineer, Megapack
Maintenance Planner & Procurement Specialist, Lithium Refinery
5 Axis CNC Machinist, Die Shop
Metallurgical Engineer, Die Shop
Production Planner, Die Shop
Sr. Quality Engineer, Stationary Battery Enclosure, Megapack
Staff Quality Engineer, Megapack
Staff Process Engineer, General Assembly, Megapack
Associate Engineering Manager, Production Control, Megapack
Sr. Process Engineer, Production Control, Megapack
Project Engineer, New Product Introduction, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Powder Coat, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Module & Power Electronics, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Body in White, Megafactory

I love Ray Dalio, he has an amazing talent for communicating wildly intricate, complex things in a way that seems almost simplistic, yet retains all nuances of the details. 

FYI, I also graduated in mid 90's. Yes people, I am a Grandpa, several times over. I am very blessed to have blue-zone genes. 

The notion that USA was going to be a consumer economy, and that it would some how lead to prosperity was one of, if not THE, greatest con's ever pulled off. 

I recall when the entire lunacy of it was announced and championed. It was immediately apparent to me of "how will the nation make $" and that was not an ok opinion to have on it. It felt very Roman-esk, the masses wanted to just enjoy there bread & games.... 

The concept of an ip economy has well been proven as a spruce goose. 

ip has always been, and always will be, the most vulnerable of assets. Easily stolen through a variety of mechanisms. As China has well proven and championed. 

I don't blame the Chinese, I don't, if anything I envy them. 

I believe the only shot USA and for that matter, the western nations have as a whole, have is a methodical concerted effort and actions to change the social dynamics. The mindsets must shift. Without that, it will all fail. 

Americans have to exterminate their social narcissism. 
The prevailing word of language must become "WE" replacing me, I, my...... 

My fear is the history. 

Americans have a deep history for action after the fact. Europe burned and burned and burned and only after punched straight in the face at Pearl and a miracle staving off total obliteration in the Pacific did USA shift. 

Is that what will be required again? A catastrophe verging on total absolute calamity to bring Americans together as a unified, roll up the sleeve, do what we gotta do "UNUM". 

In 1939 the US military was less that than Portugal's..... Under 190k. 

In 1940, leading up to Pearl, they jokingly thought they were "prepared" at almost 500k. 

Within 12 months of Pearl, over 3 million strong. 24 months later and roughly 8 million....... 

In less than 48 months the USA built, from dirt, the biggest most powerful fighting force the world had ever seen. 

That includes clothing, housing, feeding, training millions upon millions upon milliions. 

Think; how'd they shazam up that many boot's? 

How'd they ever find that many dentist's? 

How in the heck did they manage to move enough food and water every day for millions upon millions? 

The logistics are absolutely mind boggling. And it was achieved in a measurement of weeks and months, not years and decades. 

Everything, EVERYTHING had to be built, created to facilitate it all. There was not enough toilet paper in all the nation for those soldiers butt's. They had to grow manufacturing capacity for literally everything at a rate not only never done in the USA, but never done in human history. 

I don't know how we can do it again, but WE CAN, we did, we did it because we HAD TO. Failure was not an option. 

That mindset lead the way of everything. There was no place for lamenting how hard whatever would be, or how this or that wasn't readily available. A generation of problem solvers, because that was the messaging, that was the requirement expected of everyone, how can you help, what can you solve, what can you do for the greater whole. 

"We do these things not because they are easy....."

If that spirit is gone and dead...... Than so is the USA.....

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

We don't have the labor to make more things in the US. 

We still have about 7.4 million open jobs and vs 7 million unemployed. You can't drive unemployment to zero. Anything under 5% is considered full employment. And we are at 4.1%. So while it sounds great to "bring jobs back" - who is going to do them?

And we also have a qualification problem. A modern auto factory does not require much unskilled labor. Material is moved by automated forklifts, and assembly is either done or assisted by robots to meet TQM standards. Much of what you need are engineers and highly skilled workers. We are already short on both.

I doubt that most of the 40% unemployed men of the inner city of Detroit are a good fit for a modern day manufacturing plant.

The Apple CEO Tim Cook said famously: people think we manufacture in China because labor is cheap. The real reason is they have a vast pool of HIGHLY qualified skilled labor.  Video.

I have spent almost 20 years working for a global manufacturer. For any machine that was produced in our US factory and the components needed to assemble the decision was to either fully automate the process to 24/7 production here in the US - or offshore to MX or CHN, the difference being the response time to change orders (6 months vs 6 weeks) due to geographic distance. MX kept us more flexible.

Here is a picture of the BMW plant in Spartenburg, SC and if you want to see the list of jobs they have it's here https://www.bmwgroup.jobs/us/en/location/location-spartanbur...

Why should we care about Apples phones etc.  If they aren't going to bring opportunity to Americans to buy a house, provide for a family then they are not a priority, if they go broke "thems the breaks".  They can take all the money they are spending sending missiles and weapons all across the world and get the folks in Detroit up to speed for those good jobs Apple has.  Americans don't need more technology, we need some good jobs that can create strong communities, towns, neighborhoods etc.  And if your business doesn't provide that then your business is not a priority.  Am I missing something?

Yes, I think you missed my point. It's not about Apple. The issue is: we have more open jobs than people looking for jobs. In other words: we don't need more jobs. And if we create more jobs, who is going to take them?

And a large portion of the people unemployed today have a qualification problem. Simple manual labor is not a thing anymore. You need automation engineers who can troubleshoot a FANUC 6-axis robot - and not a grunt to do heavy manual labor.

And you are not going to train a 40 year old unskilled laborer to become an engineer. Heck, who would even make the investment to pay for college with only 20 working years left to retirement?

Good jobs to create strong communities" sounds really great, we all want that, I am all for it. But the definition of what a good job looks like has changed. Give it another 3 or 5 years. Machines will be picking your strawberries, because they will do it cheaper, better and also at night.

We can recreate an economy like it was in the 80s with "Good jobs for hard working Americans". Tune back the technology. But the world will move on and the ones who say America is a dying empire will have been right.

People today have a qualification problem because the jobs have been shipped over to asia, and industries like timber has been crushed by regulation with the help of BlackRock etc so they can use cheaper labor and make more money.  Nike, Apple etc use these people in asia like slaves the governments are totally corrupt with no labor or environmental protection, impossible for us to compete with that.  The outsourcing of the nations wealth Wall Street and the corporate outsourcers took a huge cut off the top and sent it overseas.  Thats how I view it and that is why Trump was elected I believe.  If Apple can't make money building their technology or Nike can't build their dumb woke shoes here and make money I'm good with that let them go broke.  It took along time to get our population as fat and ignorant as they are today (God bless them, LOL) there could be alot of pain and time whipping our country back into shape.

I didn't know shoes can be woke, good thing I don't have any Nike lol. I agree that Wallstreet and turbo-capitalism took the wealth from the middle class, but the real question is weather it is feasible for us to on-shore production in a reasonable time, AND get wages up AND keep prices from shooting up so affordability gets better AND redistribute income back to the middle class.

It took as all of the 80s, 90s and 00s to offshore our manufacturing. Moving factories and building supply chains takes decades. Raising a workforce with the right qualifications takes a generation. And the sweatshop China you describe has been rapidly vanishing and is being replaced with hyper modern fully automated facilities. 

And you need a very qualified workforce to run them: 1.5 million engineers graduate every year in China, I believe we are just over 100,000

We are asking if we could re-open some of the mothballed factories that was designed to manually assemble a Ford Granada. Meanwhile, BYD is just finishing a car manufacturing plant the size of San Francisco - about 50 square miles large - that will produce a million cars per year. Highly automated factory, not a sweatshop. 

And the cars are amazing! I usually drive German SUVs, but every Chinese car I have driven in the last 2 years makes me realize that they are getting ahead in every aspect. For half the price

So, yeah - something has to change. We can't keep importing everything and the only thing we ship the other way is dollar bills. We do this long enough they have all the dollars and we have all the stuff. Then what?

First I think everyone needs to wrap there head around accepting the fundamental fact that the path USA was on only ends 1 way; INSOLVENCY. 

That is just a fact. And oddly enough, as much as people burry there head in the sand to it, countless experts have been sounding the alarms on this for literally years.

For years there has been a similar denial culture in South Africa. Friends and family would ask me and wife when back visiting of why don't we move back, why are we "suffering" in USA. And in many ways we were suffering in USA vs the lifestyle we could readily have in South Africa. 

But we saw the writing on the wall, the future was certain, we knew what was coming, the reaping of certain actions. 

Now, nobody has been able to swim on Durban beach for over a year because of the human waste, YES human feces river literally streaming out 24-7 and nothing being done to the infrastructure. 

Load shedding...... Imagine 4-7hrs of electricity a day, or less. Especially when hot. 

This is the future of USA if something DRASTIC is not done. The crisis in South Africa didn't happen over a few years, it was decades in the making. Decades of neglect, ignorance, can kicking, avoidance, corruption, fraud and sticking heads in the sand. Until finally the issues rupture so big it's all but impossible to deny the stench, very literally.

I don't think anyone sane is saying it will be easy in USA, but it's NECESSARY. 

How fast can it be? I'd argue speed comes from level of necessity. When the Japanese hit Pearl Harbor the USA was half foot into the war, or so it thought it was, and realized it was sooooo far under equipped or ready that it effectively was wholly unequipped or prepared. And the USA panicked BUT panicked with purpose. 

In lightning speed, no not decades, the USA built an industrial TITAN of manufacturing that out produced the entire axis forces to a scale of multiplication factors. 

It CAN be done. It HAS been done before. 

Labor, both skilled and unskilled CAN be trained, in scale, and at lightning speed. It has been done before. 

Necessity is the Mother of invention, but also the Father of motivation. 

CAN the USA? Well of course it can, it already has, and there was no playbook on how-to back then so absolutely no excuses this time around for "can we". 

The question, the question of all questions is; WILL WE....... 

The USA culture is still deeply entrenched in denialism. In it's own sense of grandiosity to even conceive it is anything less than the center of the universe and no nation can possibly compete more or less eclipse it. Despite all the facts and reality to the contrary. Still trying to coast on the steam of a generation lost to time. 

I do not think those under 45 have any concept of what's at stake. 

It's a question of will-power not infrastructure. USA has proven this before. If and when the will-power exists, nothing can't be done. Mountains will be moved, fleet's built, a sleeping giant will awaken.....