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All Forum Posts by: V.G Jason

V.G Jason has started 15 posts and replied 3033 times.

Post: Putting $1M into Crypto

V.G Jason
Posted
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  • Posts 3,079
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Quote from @Nicholas L.:

Just to confirm, it's a week since this thread started, and we're still long term bullish on RE right?

I have enjoyed reading the perspectives of @James Hamling and @V.G Jason


 Yes, long term bull. Short term bear, polar bear.

Post: Putting $1M into Crypto

V.G Jason
Posted
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  • Posts 3,079
  • Votes 3,115
Quote from @James Hamling:
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever. 

It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever. 

I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too. 

I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid. 

When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks. 

The new shiny toy is ai. 

Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).

People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world. 

apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.

In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32. 

BTC is the very definition of volatile. 

No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air. 

And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.

The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before. 

Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway. 

As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai. 

As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it. 

So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins. 

AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.

It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe. 

It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements. 

And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable. 

Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices? 

It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs. 

Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember. 

Words hype and hopes. 

I operate on facts, math and certainty. 


 That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.

BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.

BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now. 

BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous. 

.
Oops. 

"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65

North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."

I was waiting for this type of response.

Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.

Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced.  So again, it's user error and storage.

In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?

Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding. 

This is what is coined "SPIN". 

Look it's simple. 

For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems. 

Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity. 

If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE. 

How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW.... 

Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%. 

For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion. 

And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap. 

So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds. 

Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such. 

In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc..... 

You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable. 

1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it. 
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.

Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.

 Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others. 

For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable. 

That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.

You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk. 

Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure. 

Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it. 

Again-- IF, THEN.


You're missing the forest for the trees. 

This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol. 

Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy. 

They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life. 

When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple. 

And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it. 

BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value. 

It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $. 

Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????". 

Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......

I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing. 


Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.

"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."


It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself.  And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015. 

There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine.  We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.

I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********. 

But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O. 

The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection. 

And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.

Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative.  We're seeing that reckoning begin now. 

Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.

And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.

"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.

In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."

Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...

"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."

You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage. 

Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss. 

Identify the leverage, and buy the fall.  You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.  

Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.

This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.

Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?

Is RE fraudulent or a scam?

VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related. 

 Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down! 

This will be a chopy ride, but down we go.

Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P.

How ironic that as were debating all this POW it kicks off.... 

Now I'm starting to look back over past 3-4 weeks asking self what it is that I sniffed out that gave me this instinct to get uber defensive in things. Maybe it was luck, but maybe there was more in the signals that i subconsciously read and just knew. 

And I did. I got UBER defensive. I liquidated all crypto, I had never done that in all the years not once ever. And I liquidated 30% of portfolios. And i started focusing on shorts vs going long. I removed ALL long plays, and that's normally my "jam". 

My gut tells me this is gonna get bloody, mighty bloody. 

I am just hopeful it reflects in 10yr bond and we could see 5% mortgage finance again here soon. That would be a silver lining for sure. 


 Bessent's hoping for that, too. In regards to the 10 year yield.


Which is why the blood bath doesn't halt, unless trade wars go our direction entirely.


Short prompt, long the curve is the play I believe & set up like that here for good.


I thought it a bit of a "crazy" extreme theory, tank the market to create all these catalyst to force significant drops in interest rate so can refinance the National Dept before (I think it's June is the deadline) and save literally billions upon billions upon billions. 

Than pedal to the medal for growth there after. 

Seemed really koo-koo buuutttt..... it's got a kind of brilliant strategy too it to. It does make sense in a strategic manner. 

And than I recently heard Trump speaking and mentioned how weird the USA vision is vs China. Where China thinks in 100yr terms for their society and actions and the US think is quarters. He isn't wrong, our ADD focus for planning doesn't lend to great long term results. 

It got me thinking if he's aligning more with the LT focus and strategy and F the "instant" micro-time...... Ok, now I really am coming round to thinking this really could be the desired intent. 

When debt service on national debt is more than the budget for national defense, yeah, shaving off some interest points holds a heck of a lot of benefits to it LT, even if cost is a short term roll-over in markets. 

IDK, we will see. 


 It's not crazy. It's austerity, too. 

Tank the economy is just one possible outcome. 

The other is external revenue and more fair trade for America to offset deficit and decrease Taxes.

It's all Bessent. He sees this and moves appropriately. 

Post: Putting $1M into Crypto

V.G Jason
Posted
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  • Posts 3,079
  • Votes 3,115
Quote from @James Hamling:
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever. 

It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever. 

I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too. 

I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid. 

When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks. 

The new shiny toy is ai. 

Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).

People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world. 

apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.

In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32. 

BTC is the very definition of volatile. 

No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air. 

And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.

The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before. 

Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway. 

As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai. 

As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it. 

So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins. 

AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.

It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe. 

It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements. 

And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable. 

Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices? 

It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs. 

Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember. 

Words hype and hopes. 

I operate on facts, math and certainty. 


 That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.

BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.

BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now. 

BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous. 

.
Oops. 

"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65

North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."

I was waiting for this type of response.

Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.

Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced.  So again, it's user error and storage.

In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?

Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding. 

This is what is coined "SPIN". 

Look it's simple. 

For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems. 

Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity. 

If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE. 

How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW.... 

Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%. 

For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion. 

And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap. 

So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds. 

Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such. 

In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc..... 

You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable. 

1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it. 
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.

Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.

 Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others. 

For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable. 

That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.

You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk. 

Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure. 

Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it. 

Again-- IF, THEN.


You're missing the forest for the trees. 

This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol. 

Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy. 

They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life. 

When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple. 

And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it. 

BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value. 

It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $. 

Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????". 

Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......

I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing. 


Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.

"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."


It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself.  And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015. 

There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine.  We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.

I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********. 

But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O. 

The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection. 

And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.

Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative.  We're seeing that reckoning begin now. 

Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.

And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.

"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.

In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."

Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...

"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."

You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage. 

Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss. 

Identify the leverage, and buy the fall.  You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.  

Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.

This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.

Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?

Is RE fraudulent or a scam?

VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related. 

 Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down! 

This will be a chopy ride, but down we go.

Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P.

How ironic that as were debating all this POW it kicks off.... 

Now I'm starting to look back over past 3-4 weeks asking self what it is that I sniffed out that gave me this instinct to get uber defensive in things. Maybe it was luck, but maybe there was more in the signals that i subconsciously read and just knew. 

And I did. I got UBER defensive. I liquidated all crypto, I had never done that in all the years not once ever. And I liquidated 30% of portfolios. And i started focusing on shorts vs going long. I removed ALL long plays, and that's normally my "jam". 

My gut tells me this is gonna get bloody, mighty bloody. 

I am just hopeful it reflects in 10yr bond and we could see 5% mortgage finance again here soon. That would be a silver lining for sure. 


 Bessent's hoping for that, too. In regards to the 10 year yield.


Which is why the blood bath doesn't halt, unless trade wars go our direction entirely.


Short prompt, long the curve is the play I believe & set up like that here for good.

Post: Putting $1M into Crypto

V.G Jason
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever. 

It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever. 

I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too. 

I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid. 

When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks. 

The new shiny toy is ai. 

Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).

People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world. 

apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.

In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32. 

BTC is the very definition of volatile. 

No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air. 

And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.

The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before. 

Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway. 

As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai. 

As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it. 

So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins. 

AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.

It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe. 

It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements. 

And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable. 

Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices? 

It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs. 

Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember. 

Words hype and hopes. 

I operate on facts, math and certainty. 


 That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.

BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.

BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now. 

BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous. 

.
Oops. 

"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65

North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."

I was waiting for this type of response.

Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.

Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced.  So again, it's user error and storage.

In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?

Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding. 

This is what is coined "SPIN". 

Look it's simple. 

For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems. 

Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity. 

If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE. 

How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW.... 

Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%. 

For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion. 

And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap. 

So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds. 

Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such. 

In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc..... 

You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable. 

1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it. 
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.

Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.

 Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others. 

For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable. 

That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.

You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk. 

Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure. 

Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it. 

Again-- IF, THEN.


You're missing the forest for the trees. 

This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol. 

Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy. 

They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life. 

When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple. 

And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it. 

BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value. 

It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $. 

Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????". 

Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......

I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing. 


Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.

"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."


It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself.  And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015. 

There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine.  We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.

I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********. 

But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O. 

The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection. 

And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.

Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative.  We're seeing that reckoning begin now. 

Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.

And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.

"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.

In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."

Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...

"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."

You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage. 

Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss. 

Identify the leverage, and buy the fall.  You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.  

Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.

This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.

Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?

Is RE fraudulent or a scam?

VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related. 

 Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down! 

This will be a chopy ride, but down we go.

Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P.

Post: Putting $1M into Crypto

V.G Jason
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever. 

It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever. 

I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too. 

I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid. 

When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks. 

The new shiny toy is ai. 

Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).

People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world. 

apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.

In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32. 

BTC is the very definition of volatile. 

No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air. 

And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.

The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before. 

Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway. 

As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai. 

As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it. 

So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins. 

AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.

It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe. 

It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements. 

And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable. 

Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices? 

It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs. 

Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember. 

Words hype and hopes. 

I operate on facts, math and certainty. 


 That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.

BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.

BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now. 

BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous. 

.
Oops. 

"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65

North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."

I was waiting for this type of response.

Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.

Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced.  So again, it's user error and storage.

In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?

Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding. 

This is what is coined "SPIN". 

Look it's simple. 

For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems. 

Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity. 

If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE. 

How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW.... 

Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%. 

For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion. 

And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap. 

So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds. 

Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such. 

In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc..... 

You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable. 

1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it. 
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.

Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.

 Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others. 

For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable. 

That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.

You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk. 

Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure. 

Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it. 

Again-- IF, THEN.


You're missing the forest for the trees. 

This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol. 

Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy. 

They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life. 

When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple. 

And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it. 

BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value. 

It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $. 

Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????". 

Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......

I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing. 


Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.

"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."


It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself.  And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015. 

There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine.  We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.

I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********. 

But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O. 

The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection. 

And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.

Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative.  We're seeing that reckoning begin now. 

Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.

And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.

"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.

In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."

Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...

"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."

You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage. 

Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss. 

Identify the leverage, and buy the fall.  You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.  

Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.

This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.

Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?

Is RE fraudulent or a scam?

VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related. 

 Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down! 

This will be a chopy ride, but down we go.

Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P.

Post: Putting $1M into Crypto

V.G Jason
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever. 

You should watch the Big Short to understand that the 2008 real estate crash was based on a big fraudulent scam called MDS and CDOs.  

But the government backstopped the loses, for the banks ;-) The biggest scam is real estate property taxes. Under the current system you can never really own your real estate even if it's paid off.

Ok, I see you're not really able to understand the logic. I'll go step by step here. It'll be like Bob Stevens "appreciation" trap.

1) I assume you mean MBS not MDS. MBS has been around the late 1970s & are still around. Why hasn't there been more crashes?
 

Yep, I mean MBS. Thanks for the correction. But, you failed to mention the fraud and the CDOs. Investors **assume** that bulk loans that are originated by "legitimate" banks, which institutional investors buy from, have been properly underwritten and insured. That is what they are told. That is what they think they're buying. Properly underwritten, low risk loans.

If the secondary market marks "B" paper, as "A" paper and Say, S&P grades them as "A" paper and AIG insures those tranches, you have total deception and fraud. 

When banks lend a lot of money to people with no income and no verifiable way of repaying, yet mark it as "A" paper, you get CDOs and then synthetic CDOs on top of that, before long you have a product as speculative as BitCoin. (BitCoin, Which is backed by nothing. No hard asset, no insurance and no taxation.) And in lending, payments started getting missed. In 2008, that was on a grand scale. At least there was a 10 cent on the dollar hard asset in property.

I originated a bunch of those loans when I was first starting out as a loan officer for a mortgage broker in the late 1990's bailing people out of foreclosure. (WAMAU, Option One, First Option, OCWEN) and made a ton of money. Commissions were very, very high. We took the borrower's missed payments (arrears) of tens of thousands of dollars, from their existing loan of 8% and put them into a refinance at 14%. Well, my cohorts did, I simply showed the borrower the numbers and they'd freak out. So, I bought the foreclosing properties subject to, brought the loans current,  gave the sellers their equity, rehabbed as a rental or flipped it. I made my first million doing those.

But, the point is, if a guy falls behind on his 8% loan, how is he going to make a payment at 14% ? I can do simple math, it rarely worked out. :-)

That problem doesn't really exist today.

And Bitcoin has to go through that same kind of cycle for people to realize the smoke and mirrors the blockchain money world is. There is nothing behind it. Except greed and hope.

 It's just a simple question. I was getting to the other points. MBS are instruments, they're not why the the GFC happened. The inappropriate leverage in them coupled with high expectations (qualified loans) caused the crash. CDOs same thing, came about in the late 80s still around. Can be a perfectly fine instrument. When you have inappropriate leverage, rarely do good things work out.


The instrument is solid, the issue is the underwriter, issuer and the buyer. I don't blame MBS, or CDOs, much like I don't blame Bitcoin. I blame the bank/exchange, I blame the user/borrower, and I blame the storage/smart contracts/underwriter.

That's my point. I don't blame loans for the GFC. I blame the issuer, underwriter and borrower. The accountability needs to stick, it's not on the instrument. I don't blame Bitcoin for "heists", it's on the user, exchange, and storage mechanism.

Greed & fear always dictate the markets. That's never going to change, don't confuse that with the underlying instrument being fraudulent or scam.

Reckon that with the action of greed being conveyed via leverage. We'll see it again, like we always do. 

Post: Putting $1M into Crypto

V.G Jason
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever. 

It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever. 

I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too. 

I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid. 

When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks. 

The new shiny toy is ai. 

Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).

People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world. 

apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.

In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32. 

BTC is the very definition of volatile. 

No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air. 

And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.

The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before. 

Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway. 

As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai. 

As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it. 

So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins. 

AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.

It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe. 

It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements. 

And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable. 

Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices? 

It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs. 

Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember. 

Words hype and hopes. 

I operate on facts, math and certainty. 


 That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.

BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.

BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now. 

BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous. 

.
Oops. 

"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65

North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."

I was waiting for this type of response.

Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.

Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced.  So again, it's user error and storage.

In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?

Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding. 

This is what is coined "SPIN". 

Look it's simple. 

For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems. 

Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity. 

If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE. 

How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW.... 

Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%. 

For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion. 

And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap. 

So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds. 

Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such. 

In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc..... 

You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable. 

1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it. 
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.

Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.

 Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others. 

For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable. 

That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.

You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk. 

Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure. 

Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it. 

Again-- IF, THEN.


You're missing the forest for the trees. 

This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol. 

Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy. 

They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life. 

When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple. 

And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it. 

BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value. 

It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $. 

Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????". 

Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......

I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing. 


Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.

"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."


It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself.  And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015. 

There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine.  We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.

I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********. 

But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O. 

The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection. 

And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.

Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative.  We're seeing that reckoning begin now. 

Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.

And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.

"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.

In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."

Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...

"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."

You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage. 

Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss. 

Identify the leverage, and buy the fall.  You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.  

Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.

This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.

Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?

Is RE fraudulent or a scam?

You should watch the Big Short to understand that the 2008 real estate crash was based on a big fraudulent scam called MDS and CDOs.  

But the government backstopped the loses, for the banks ;-) The biggest scam is real estate property taxes. Under the current system you can never really own your real estate even if it's paid off.

Ok, I see you're not really able to understand the logic. I'll go step by step here. It'll be like Bob Stevens "appreciation" trap.

1) I assume you mean MBS not MDS. MBS has been around the late 1970s & are still around. Why hasn't there been more crashes?


Post: Putting $1M into Crypto

V.G Jason
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever. 

It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever. 

I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too. 

I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid. 

When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks. 

The new shiny toy is ai. 

Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).

People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world. 

apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.

In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32. 

BTC is the very definition of volatile. 

No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air. 

And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.

The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before. 

Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway. 

As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai. 

As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it. 

So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins. 

AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.

It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe. 

It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements. 

And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable. 

Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices? 

It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs. 

Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember. 

Words hype and hopes. 

I operate on facts, math and certainty. 


 That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.

BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.

BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now. 

BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous. 

.
Oops. 

"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65

North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."

I was waiting for this type of response.

Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.

Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced.  So again, it's user error and storage.

In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?

Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding. 

This is what is coined "SPIN". 

Look it's simple. 

For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems. 

Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity. 

If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE. 

How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW.... 

Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%. 

For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion. 

And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap. 

So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds. 

Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such. 

In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc..... 

You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable. 

1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it. 
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.

Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.

 Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others. 

For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable. 

That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.

You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk. 

Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure. 

Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it. 

Again-- IF, THEN.


You're missing the forest for the trees. 

This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol. 

Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy. 

They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life. 

When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple. 

And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it. 

BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value. 

It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $. 

Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????". 

Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......

I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing. 


Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.

"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."


It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself.  And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015. 

There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine.  We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.

I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********. 

But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O. 

The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection. 

And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.

Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative.  We're seeing that reckoning begin now. 

Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.

And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.

"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.

In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."

Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...

"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."

You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage. 

Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss. 

Identify the leverage, and buy the fall.  You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.  

Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.

This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.

Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?

Is RE fraudulent or a scam?

VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related. 

Yes, I did buy some TSLA today & NASDAQ(via QQQ) as a hedge & as an entry at $224 & $469.

I have no shorts on these. I'm just entering a strategic long in these at certain levels against my widespread short-term shorts. Not signaling these are the lows or the bottom, by any stretch.

Lots of things I'm watching, but few concentrated positions. Won't take that bet, but believe it has more room down by end of Q2 maybe not EOW. The humanoid object will be a rally whenever it's announced, then a hit when it's delayed.

Post: Putting $1M into Crypto

V.G Jason
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Quote from @Ken M.:
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Quote from @V.G Jason:
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever. 

It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever. 

I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too. 

I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid. 

When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks. 

The new shiny toy is ai. 

Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).

People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world. 

apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.

In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32. 

BTC is the very definition of volatile. 

No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air. 

And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.

The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before. 

Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway. 

As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai. 

As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it. 

So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins. 

AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.

It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe. 

It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements. 

And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable. 

Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices? 

It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs. 

Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember. 

Words hype and hopes. 

I operate on facts, math and certainty. 


 That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.

BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.

BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now. 

BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous. 

.
Oops. 

"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65

North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."

I was waiting for this type of response.

Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.

Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced.  So again, it's user error and storage.

In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?

Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding. 

This is what is coined "SPIN". 

Look it's simple. 

For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems. 

Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity. 

If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE. 

How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW.... 

Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%. 

For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion. 

And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap. 

So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds. 

Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such. 

In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc..... 

You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable. 

1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it. 
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.

Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.

 Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others. 

For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable. 

That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.

You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk. 

Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure. 

Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it. 

Again-- IF, THEN.


You're missing the forest for the trees. 

This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol. 

Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy. 

They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life. 

When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple. 

And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it. 

BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value. 

It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $. 

Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????". 

Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......

I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing. 


Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.

"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."


It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself.  And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015. 

There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine.  We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.

I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********. 

But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O. 

The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection. 

And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.

Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative.  We're seeing that reckoning begin now. 

Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.

And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.

"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.

In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."

Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...

"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."

You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage. 

Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss. 

Identify the leverage, and buy the fall.  You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.  

Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.

This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.

Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?

Is RE fraudulent or a scam?

Post: Putting $1M into Crypto

V.G Jason
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever. 

It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever. 

I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too. 

I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid. 

When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks. 

The new shiny toy is ai. 

Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).

People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world. 

apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.

In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32. 

BTC is the very definition of volatile. 

No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air. 

And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.

The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before. 

Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway. 

As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai. 

As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it. 

So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins. 

AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.

It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe. 

It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements. 

And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable. 

Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices? 

It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs. 

Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember. 

Words hype and hopes. 

I operate on facts, math and certainty. 


 That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.

BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.

BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now. 

BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous. 

.
Oops. 

"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65

North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."

I was waiting for this type of response.

Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.

Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced.  So again, it's user error and storage.

In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?

Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding. 

This is what is coined "SPIN". 

Look it's simple. 

For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems. 

Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity. 

If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE. 

How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW.... 

Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%. 

For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion. 

And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap. 

So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds. 

Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such. 

In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc..... 

You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable. 

1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it. 
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.

Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.

 Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others. 

For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable. 

That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.

You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk. 

Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure. 

Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it. 

Again-- IF, THEN.


You're missing the forest for the trees. 

This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol. 

Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy. 

They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life. 

When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple. 

And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it. 

BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value. 

It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $. 

Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????". 

Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......

I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing. 


Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.

"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."


It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself.  And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015. 

There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine.  We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.

I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********. 

But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O. 

The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection. 

And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.

Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative.  We're seeing that reckoning begin now. 

Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.

And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.

"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.

In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."