All Forum Posts by: V.G Jason

You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage. 

Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss. 

Identify the leverage, and buy the fall.  You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.  

Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.

This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.

Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?

Is RE fraudulent or a scam?

Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.

"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."


It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself.  And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015. 

There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine.  We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.

I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********. 

But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O. 

The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection. 

And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.

Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative.  We're seeing that reckoning begin now. 

Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.

They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.

And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.

"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.

In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."

1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it. 
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.

Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.

 Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others. 

For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable. 

That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.

You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk. 

Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure. 

Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it. 

Again-- IF, THEN.

1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it. 
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.

Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.

 Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others. 

For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable. 

That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.

You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk. 

Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure. 

Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it. 

Again-- IF, THEN.

This is what is coined "SPIN". 

Look it's simple. 

For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems. 

Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity. 

If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE. 

How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW.... 

Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%. 

For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion. 

And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap. 

So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds. 

Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such. 

In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc..... 

You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable. 

This is what is coined "SPIN". 

Look it's simple. 

For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems. 

Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity. 

If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE. 

How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW.... 

Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%. 

For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion. 

And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap. 

So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds. 

Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such. 

In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc..... 

You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable. 

"Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65

North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."

In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32. 

BTC is the very definition of volatile. 

No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air. 

And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.

The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before. 

Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway. 

As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai. 

As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it. 

So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins. 

AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.

It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe. 

It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements. 

And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable. 

Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices? 

It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs. 

Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember. 

Words hype and hopes. 

I operate on facts, math and certainty.