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All Forum Posts by: V.G Jason

V.G Jason has started 15 posts and replied 2968 times.

Post: Tariffs and commercial buildjng

V.G Jason
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Quote from @Ronald Rohde:

I think it just benefits current owners. our replacement cost variability just went up a lot for the next 4 years.


 100%.

All cyclical asset classes are reverting to the mean, except the one's with a material short-- naturally. Housing is just the perfect example of this.

Post: How is the market where you are?

V.G Jason
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Quote from @Jaron Walling:

@V.G Jason Are you finding it difficult to estimate ARV right now?

Prices are up in our market but the discrepancy between prices, similar specs, and actively listed is weird. It's $15-30k in our target areas. There's either a lot of clueless sellers or my sold comps are too narrow. There's a lot DOM also but I expect during the winter. 

As rates have gone up we tightened my sold comps. It's making it hard to find anything worth chasing. Driving by a property today to see if makes sense to walk. It's down the street from our rental which we BRRRR'd two years ago. Asking $89k, probably a $40-50k rehab.

I keep it conservative, therefore my ARV really isn't that far off. Comps to me no longer play the only role because of rates, seasonality, etc., it definitely fights the arguments on re-fis with the appraiser but I'm noticing there's just a liquidity issue that is skewing things.

I try to essentially start at the floor and work my way up on the ARV as opposed to seeing the highs and working it down.

Post: New Partnership Model

V.G Jason
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Quote from @Chris Clothier:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
I did a partnership like this, 50/50, with me putting up 100% of the capital out of fear.  Unfortunately, many people will do partnerships like this because they seem straightforward and don't realize what they are giving up.  I didn't at the time.  

What they get in return is someone to blame if it goes wrong.  After 20+ years, I hear from so many who are more motivated by fear than optimism and make decisions based on not losing rather than a high probability of winning.  In the end, many fail because they make a decision based on the wrong motivation.

Glad to hear that you have actually done a partnership like this, or any partnership in fact, therefore you're qualified to share your opinion unlike some of us who have not done a partnership and should not be allowed to comment.

Despite investing through through the tech bubble, Argentine currency crisis, the shale boom, through the GFC, through global markets, through polar vortex's, through the oil drop in 2014 with Russia, there's no way I could qualify to come up with a legitimate and qualified response to such a partnership. 

Yet in some strange fashion, we both came to same conclusion. I wonder how that could be.

In all seriousness, appreciate your input. It drops some wisdom & folks can actually see it for what it is. Another point I wanted to stress that you mentioned when you said you didn't want to give up 50% of the profit, when providing the 100% of capital and you did that cause you entered with fear-- you need to fail some to really grow. That includes with investing, I've learned the most through my failures. Hopefully, none of our posts get censored as some are vying for. 

Post: New Partnership Model

V.G Jason
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Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:

@V.G Jason Well that was a lackluster response.  I was hoping for something a little more lively. Let me break down the numbers for you on the debt model versus the equity model.

Equity Model for the house on Noble:

With Debt 7.875%
Purchase Price$137,900.00
Title Fees$4,541.00
Financing Costs at purchase$1,700.00
Insurance$1,257.00
Rehab Costs$40,000.00
Utility Costs while vacant$450.00
Taxes while vacant (3 monts)$150.00
Hard money payments$4,311.67
Option Fee$3,900.00
Loan$180,000.00
Refinancing costs$8,000.00
Reserves in account$10,000.00
Shiloh's 5k share of profits$5,000.00
Amount left into the deal$29,409.67
Rent$1,500.00
Monthly PI Payments$1,300.00
Monthly Taxes$54.00
Monthly Insurance$105.00
Cash Flow$41.00
Sales price$269,900.00
Loan amount after 3 years$175,000.00
Closing costs on the sale$2,000.00
Proceeds from sale$92,900.00
Profits from sale$63,490.33
Profits from Cash Flow$1,476.00
Profits from Option Fee$3,900.00
Total Profits$68,866.33
Dividing the Profits
Operating Partner$31,933.17
Money Partner$36,933.17
Total money returned
Operating Partner$36,933.17
Money Partner$76,342.83
APR for Money Partner53%

Return for the money partner for the debt Model for the house on Noble 

First position lender 180,000 at 75% of the $240,000 ARV

Second position note from private money lender for $12,000 leveraging the property to 80%.

If the option gets exercised at the end of the option period to keep the scenarios the same, then the total gain for the $12,000 would be $3,600 for the 3 years at 10%, which is what I would offer in second position for a note less than a $25,000. 

So the risk is lower, as long as the market doesn't drop 20% and stay that low for the next 3 years. 

The equity model has risk in that it is not going to go directly as planned.  The tenant may decide that they want to move out rather than exercise the option.  We may then sell the property earlier or we may bring in another tenant buyer for a shorter period of time. We may make more or less than planned.  But if things go more or less as planned then the money partner leaves in $29,409.67 but then gains the same as I would which is $36,933.17 over a 3 year period of time. Which is about a 42% return each year.  

So it really just depends on which model the money partner would like. The debt model or the equity model. 

And to respond to your statement that you can post your opinion about what you would like. That is definitely true, however, I would suggest you only post your opinion on things that you have a lot of experience with so that you don't come across looking foolish.

The debt model doesn't force me to give up equity in the house. Equity provider does. Debt provider is essentially being a HML no?

As for posting my opinion, I can have an opinion on something I have not engaged in because it's just that--an opinion. If it gets you that distraught, maybe you look at respecting or ignoring someone's opinion without discounting just so you don't come off looking like a desperate shill. That's my suggestion to you. 

edit: first sentence.

Post: New Partnership Model

V.G Jason
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Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Stuart Udis:

@Shiloh Lundahl  No reason to get upset. V.G Jason merely pointed out what you are providing to the hypothetical partnership  can easily be performed through  contracted services with proper vetting and without having to give up 50% of the upside. Most individuals can originate the debt these projects require as well so its not as if your signature is opening the doors to properties these partners couldn't purchase on their own either.  You mention you would also share in losses, but you aren't investing any capital so poor performance would lead to your partner realizing a monetary loss before you.

Stuart I think what most are missing here is these investor are/want to be passive they dont want to have to hunt for a loan or try to run a rehab project ( remotely as most probably dont live in the market these props are at). And from my point of view ONE property one investor is far safer than the syndication model for most passive investors .. kind of like Investors making a HML where they are the only beneficiary .. My thought is along with others scaling and taking care of 20 plus set of books is a ton of work :)

so for those of us active in the business of course we would think we can just do this ourselves and of course we can


 The "passivity" is worth 50% of equity versus other forms of investments available in the market?

It's an opportunity cost, just like anything else. I'm still confused on why someone does this. 


VG is the exact same thought process of why investors buy Turn key rentals through turnkey brokers or turnkey companies.. Its all done for them and they are willing to pay a premium.. Instead of having to source a rehabber house, figure out how to do rehab when they have zero experience at it. and then trying to find a HML to do the loan up front ( if thye dont have the cash) and a take out lender.

 They still own the house though. In a TK--they basically sign over control & overpay, but don't sign over equity.  Unless I'm off?

 correct but in Shilohs model there is forced equity turn key model there basically is no equity or negative equity if one has to sell within 2 to 3 years as transactional cost will eat your equity..  Keep in mind I started funding TK providers in 2002 and have done over 4000 of those deals for those companies over the years so pretty familiar with the model.

Also keep in mind many investors simply wont partner with anyone they want total control.. Especially foreign investors.. 

 Agreed to the bold. Which is my hesitation with partnerships, but apparently I cannot have an opinion about them. 

In the TK model though, you're underwater day 1 right? If you sell within the first 3-5 years you're OTM. But if you sell when its ITM, you reap the rewards. Full reward.

 In this model, you're locked into a lease option and if for some reason you need to sell. You're now out 50% of it, and need your partner to agree.  So the value add is really just covering ground, not adding ground. 

Time can defeat the former, time can help the latter but the lack of control & giving up that much is just too much to overlook or ever agree to. 

Post: New Partnership Model

V.G Jason
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Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Stuart Udis:

@Shiloh Lundahl  No reason to get upset. V.G Jason merely pointed out what you are providing to the hypothetical partnership  can easily be performed through  contracted services with proper vetting and without having to give up 50% of the upside. Most individuals can originate the debt these projects require as well so its not as if your signature is opening the doors to properties these partners couldn't purchase on their own either.  You mention you would also share in losses, but you aren't investing any capital so poor performance would lead to your partner realizing a monetary loss before you.

Stuart I think what most are missing here is these investor are/want to be passive they dont want to have to hunt for a loan or try to run a rehab project ( remotely as most probably dont live in the market these props are at). And from my point of view ONE property one investor is far safer than the syndication model for most passive investors .. kind of like Investors making a HML where they are the only beneficiary .. My thought is along with others scaling and taking care of 20 plus set of books is a ton of work :)

so for those of us active in the business of course we would think we can just do this ourselves and of course we can


 The "passivity" is worth 50% of equity versus other forms of investments available in the market?

It's an opportunity cost, just like anything else. I'm still confused on why someone does this. 


VG is the exact same thought process of why investors buy Turn key rentals through turnkey brokers or turnkey companies.. Its all done for them and they are willing to pay a premium.. Instead of having to source a rehabber house, figure out how to do rehab when they have zero experience at it. and then trying to find a HML to do the loan up front ( if thye dont have the cash) and a take out lender.

 They still own the house though. In a TK--they basically sign over control & overpay, but don't sign over equity.  Unless I'm off?

Post: Tariffs and commercial buildjng

V.G Jason
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Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @V.G Jason:

The real question is duration of these tariffs. 

It'll be confusing in the short term, I think people assume it's inflationary. It is, on paper. 

If this happens for sub 3 months or longer than 9 months, it'll be inflationary. On the former front, the consumer will eat it. The latter part, the supplier will eat it. Anywhere in between, I think it's deflationary because consumer won't continue to eat it & supply side is still long enough to not warrant new supply at tariff related prices.

We really need to see how long this lasts. 


i found in my build projects that started just before and continued through the pandemic prices rose. everything but lumber became sticky IE they rose but did not fall.. Lumber and plywood went up to the sky and then came back down but not down to previous levels everything else rose and stuck. If we were not able to raise the price of our homes by 20% or more we would had to stop.. my LORI plan started at 600k sold two of them and made our normal 100k net.. last loris I sold 36 months later went for 850 to 900k and we made right at 250k NET on those ones.. so it was very specific to plans that CASH buying empty nesters wanted .. Our two story more family homes started at 500k and have ended up at 675k to 725k.. with our original nets at 100k ( was the goal) to now we are 100k to 150k NET NET NET on those.. we have 17 more to deliver and 11 are presold at those high numbers and so if I can keep lumber where i need it we should have a very nice last year of the project. This was 90 homes were i bought the dirt did the horizontal and built all the homes.. My wife sells them and does the interior designs etc. Been a lot of work and Lot of exposure financially I borrowed about 50 million to pull this off.. Thankfully we are commercial bank clients so our rates are as low as you can get in the market place for anyone who is not Lennar or DR horton or those types.
Do you pre-sell houses without hedging a percentage of the supply?

Post: New Partnership Model

V.G Jason
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Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Stuart Udis:

@Shiloh Lundahl  No reason to get upset. V.G Jason merely pointed out what you are providing to the hypothetical partnership  can easily be performed through  contracted services with proper vetting and without having to give up 50% of the upside. Most individuals can originate the debt these projects require as well so its not as if your signature is opening the doors to properties these partners couldn't purchase on their own either.  You mention you would also share in losses, but you aren't investing any capital so poor performance would lead to your partner realizing a monetary loss before you.

Stuart I think what most are missing here is these investor are/want to be passive they dont want to have to hunt for a loan or try to run a rehab project ( remotely as most probably dont live in the market these props are at). And from my point of view ONE property one investor is far safer than the syndication model for most passive investors .. kind of like Investors making a HML where they are the only beneficiary .. My thought is along with others scaling and taking care of 20 plus set of books is a ton of work :)

so for those of us active in the business of course we would think we can just do this ourselves and of course we can


 The "passivity" is worth 50% of equity versus other forms of investments available in the market?

It's an opportunity cost, just like anything else. I'm still confused on why someone does this. 

Post: Advice on working with a home buyer's RE agent using an hourly rate?

V.G Jason
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Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Erika Andersen:

Update! Finding an RE buyer agent to work at an hourly or fixed rate was hard - although contrary to what a few folks mentioned here, those options are listed on the standardized Colorado contract. In the interim, I found a house, negotiated 2.5% off the listing price, and we're under contract! I attended the first open house and requested a showing by the seller agent with my husband present.

Here's why I think my process worked:

1. Denver is a buyer's market - houses sit for a bit (one month plus). Two years ago, this approach would not have been an option.

2. Narrow focus - I know the zip codes I wanted to purchase well. I wanted to be within a less than 20-minute radius of my mom. Also, hyperfocus helps me find a home with the right conditions - a stable but increasing-value neighborhood. An older house that had already been flipped (2022) -- all new appliances, remodeling, good floor plan. The exterior is a bit sad - which worked to my benefit. It didn't yell "cute" in the Zillow picture, but improving curb appeal won't be a huge investment. Plus, the buyer needed to get rid of the house quickly as she was getting married and moving - her list price was 5K over what she had paid in 2022, and she had made improvements. I knew she wouldn't want to come down too much --- so she got the same net, and I saved 2.5%. I'm happy - the floor plan is exactly what I was looking for - tri-level 4/4- which is hard to find in the price range I wanted. House went on the market 1/17- we were under contract @ day 14.

3. Not a rookie - While I have never purchased a home without an agent, I have purchased two homes in the last fifteen years in Denver and, at some point, managed both with some form of rental income, plus helping my mom manage the independent basement apartment in her home. I also put my good student skills to use in understanding comps, etc. Fortunately, those skills can be generalized from one profession to another.

4. Luck  - Colorado contracts are straightforward.

5. Support - I hired an RE attorney @ $350 hourly. I also filled out the contract to minimize the fee, and we reviewed it together. Also, my husband has experience with contracts and helped with researching information I found difficult. Overall, the process was easier than I had anticipated.

6. Privilege - We don't have contingencies. We are keeping our current house as a rental. I have a flexible schedule and was able to put in the time.

My takeaway: - I would definitely hire an RE agent as a seller. However, the next time I buy a house, if it's a buyer's market and I know the area I want to purchase well, I'll repeat this process if it's in a state with straightforward contracts. I learned a lot, feel more confident and am pleased with the outcome.


 Here's what rubs me about this situation: the market has gone down since 2022. So why would you pay what they paid then? Like you said, it was a strong seller's market then with steep appreciation, multiple offers, way over-asking price offers, escalating clauses, appraisal gap coverage, buyers waiving all contingencies, etc. It was crazy. Most people who bought in 2022 overpaid. The tables have turned and it's a buyers market now with values flat or declining, much longer days on market, price drops, listings expiring, very rare to see full price offers on new listings, etc. 

So why would you pay even close to what they paid at the peak of the market in 2022? Even with having made improvements, anyone selling now who purchased in 2022 should be expecting a loss. You basically made a full price offer when you didn't need to. That makes no sense. Never pay full price in a buyer's market! 

Let's compare this to a deal we did last week: Seller had purchased in 2022 and listed the property for around 5% more than they had paid in 2022 (there are a lot of highly unrealistic/hopeful sellers like this currently who overpaid in 2022 and need to sell). They had no other offers so we offered 30% under ask. They countered and we met them in the middle at 15% under, and then negotiated an additional $15k off during inspection, so total discount was around $150k off list price/ what they paid in 2022. Seller had also made $100k in improvements btw. We also got them to have it professionally cleaned, ducts cleaned, they threw in some furniture for free, paid a lot of the closing costs that buyer usually pays, paid most recent mill levy instead of prior years taxes, paid my 2.8% commission, etc. because it is a buyers market and that's what you can negotiate in a buyer's market. This is a more typical deal for the current market, and what yours could have looked like if you had someone who knows what they are doing representing you. 

This is typical of what I see when buyers or sellers "go it alone": the unrepresented side gets the short end of the stick every time. They often think they're getting a good deal and tell their friends they got a good deal, when they really left money on the table unknowingly. I've seen buyers leave $500k on the table and tell their friends they got a good deal by not having an agent involved. Filling out the contract etc. is not that difficult but without being active in the market every day and having expertise that comes from doing deals all the time, beginner mistakes like this are going to be made and money is going to be left on the table every time. It's no different than anything else that people try to DIY: it can be done but beginner's mistakes will be made, the end product usually isn't as good as a professional would have done, and it usually takes longer and costs more. 

Frankly, this seller is really lucky you came along and were willing to overpay by 10-20% in order to "save" 2.5%. If it had been my client buying this property, they would have paid a lot less even with the full commission factored in. 

It seems like the property works for you at the list price and you're fine with what you're paying, so that's great. But don't kid yourself by thinking you saved any money here by representing yourself when you are overpaying compared to what most buyers are currently paying. 

Savvy buyer's agents look at stats like sold price to list price ratio trends and watch specific properties to see what they sold for compared to what they were listed for to really understand the market and make offers accordingly. You clearly misread the market here and could have done a lot better IMO. Good learning experience for you, but better to learn by working with a good agent and saving money until you have done at least 10-15 deals, rather than learning by making mistakes and leaving money on the table IMHO.   

@Steve K.: is exactly right "there are a lot of highly unrealistic/hopeful sellers like this currently who overpaid in 2022 and need to sell"

A competent realtor adds the value of "and then negotiated" which is the most important portion of he transaction. The other parts can be pretty much learned from reading or watching videos.   

So really, you should be looking for two things from your realtor
1. A realistic understanding of "today's" market and
2. Good negotiations skills. (not letting emotion decide how much your property is worth")

 Ideally, yes.

But let's be honest-- most agents don't care about getting their client the best deal, but just closing the deal particularly on the buy side. How many agents do you see now that follow those 2 rules?

And then if they are, they're actually willing to do the back & forth negotiations require. 

Post: New Partnership Model

V.G Jason
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I'm fair to my post opinion. It's interesting you want to call me out for calling you out. 

Yet you can't debate the basis of my argument on why this is not an ideal model. At some point, it'll get down to the substance. So while you may want to raise your voice, I'll just strengthen the argument. While the debt angle makes sense, and the equity one is suspect. "Investors" should do diligence on the behavior of the LP/GP in this "partnership" model. That extra diligence is screaming.

Perhaps you should stick to promoting yourself. 

Maybe you can become a moderator then and censor my posts like you want to.