All Forum Posts by: James Hamling

It's really the theory of America that people love. And unfortunately, the actual practice or actions that have made unnecessary enemies and disdain. 

Iraq is a good example of what I am trying to say. 

When we first rolled in there, in was nothing but cheer's, flowers, hug's n love. It was amazing. Next thing, the local military/police just wanted a chance to do normal things of running and helping there country, under USA control etc.. There big-wig general was all set. It was a slam dunk. 

Than these D.C. morons took over and acted as if we were still in active combat. Demanded us control thru n thru, that nope all the soldiers, Generals, all of em were out and we'd instill something else. Complete idiocy. 48hrs later things started exploding. 

And the rest is history. 

Nothing was gained by any of it, and a hell of a lot was lost, all for the sake of power/money grab to funnel everything through big-corp.. 

That's the kind of stuff that the rest of the world leaders have seen and why none of em truly trust us. And USA earned that distrust. 

And across Africa, yes, they do prefer to work with China or Russia vs USA in many ways because there is fear that USA will change there mind mid-stream, maybe decide there government needs to be changed, overthrown, or whatever. Because we've done that, a lot. 

I don't think they necessarily "like" Russia or China, but they don't fear the partnership with them like they do USA. And that cost's the USA opportunaties. 

Our meddling to "make things better" almost never works out. Afghanistan (twice now), iraq (3 times now), Syria, Iran, Libya, Ukraine, Vietnam, Korea...... Our list of fails is long. Try to name some "nation building" we got right...... 

USA has gotta change the way we try to influence things or were just gonna keep building that list of distrust. And work on understanding we don't really always know what's best in foreign nations and foreign cultures. 

We started getting things right in Iraq when we started focusing on taking a back-seat and assisting vs being the "nation builder" and that only happened because of ISIS, yet another line on USA's "whopsies" list. 

Korea was the same, we had it done and in the can until McArthur wanted to really make sure he was set for a POTUS run and pressed the Chinease into getting into it. And all the way back to the 38th and where we sit today. There would be no "Rocket-Man" if he hadn't done that stupidity. And he was warned, i know because I knew the Lt Col who warned him personally and got it straight from the horses mouth himself. 

The first step in solving a problem is first admitting you got one. 

The USA is not loved, cherished and trusted in the world. We need to do something about that. 

100%    It shocks me how few people catch on to this, and actually do the math to just look at what the bottom line is. 

In my market I've seen other brag they "only" had to pay half a month's rent for tenant placement. And then come to find there getting zinged 8-12% of rents monthly.... Yeowzers. 

The newer upstarts notoriously see doing this, nerfing down 1 fee to use as promotional material, while inflating others. 

I tell people they work with me because I am good, damn good, and I got the data to prove it. I'm not cheap, nor am I expensive, I am FAIR. And most important, FULL TRANSPARENCY. Simple pricing, simple fee structure. 

Chasing "cheap" is how expensive problems happen. 

Chase GOOD. Quality matters immensely. Were talking about 6 figure+ properties and 5 figure annual revenues. Does it make sense to expect it cost less than the average persons monthly Starbucks? 

If looking to hire an armored truck to drive your money around town, would your decision be based on who's the cheapest, or who's got the strongest dang truck? 

America is FAR from being the "trusted" person on the international stage. At least, not trusted in a good way. 

Yes, I would say China and even Rusia are far more "trusted" internationally than USA. 

The USA has a long history of stabbing people in the back. Or meddling in foreign nations affairs and only ever making things far worse. 

Example, Iran. The Iran we have today, that USA hates, that so many hate, is all thanks to USA. Many are probably just a bit too young to remember it all. We really f'd that country up. 

There is a long list of countries the USA has used, abused, and the people don't forget. 

China does not have that history. Nor even Russia. USA is king-Con on the international stage. 

This is why our allies don't ever even fully trust us, because they've seen us F so many others and we just say "yeah, but, were like buddies n all, we wouldn't do that to you...." until we do. 

Afghanistan is another. In 80's we made so many great promises, and Osama was our operative. We trained and funded them. And then when they did the job we gave them, when they achieved all the goals, we f'd em hard. So hard, that they never forgot it. And what happened, something far worse came in and took over and there we are back again many years later to deal with a mess we could have avoided if we had just honored our promises. 

And than we did it AGAIN...... 

If you think the world is in some love-fest with USA, that's because you havn't been out around the world. Most places in the world have a very negative perception of USA and Americans. 

And fact is USA earned that. Only way to change it is to hold self accountable and stop the BS. Stop "nation building" which is code word for nation imploding given its trackrecord. 

China is HUGE in Africa. There taking over and Africa is THE resources powerhouse. What's USA doing, saber rattling about making Gaza a damn resort..... wtf..... 

China builds roads, hospitals, infrastructure, is taking over a continent with there smiles and gifts. USA could learn a thing or 12 from them. 

We can't even keep Russia in check who is a laughing stock compared to China. 

The world does not need the USA, they simply are happy to use the USA if and when it suits them. NATO, China, all great examples of this. USA is #1 at being used, because we like the ego-stroke. Europe giggles and says they'll happily let USA enjoy the ego and let them enjoy the wealth. There not dumb. 

Get out there, travel the world, find out for yourself. The reality is far different than the domestic propaganda. 

They don't need to station people there. 

Just when know the powers going down, ok, get a generator out to lift station, plug it in, turn it on and walk away. 

We have these all over the place in MN. A big-ole Generac just sitting there at lift station. 

Most of our lift stations are in the ground, so all one sees is a concrete slab, metal cover, and a big Generac box on part of the slab. 

And it's for that exact reason, if power goes down something has to power the water pump so there is water pressure still. 

Every city has staff who fiddles with electricity, so even not having thought through the common sense before hand to have this in place, knowing power was going off someone should have said "hey, we need power to pump the water or were gonna be fkd". 

And whatever lift station was still safe, which I can't imagine they turn off power seconds before the flames engulf the lines, they anticipate, so CalFire, the city etc. could have also anticipated, got any trailer generator, tooled it over, rigged it up to connect it, turn on and leave. 

I guarantee at the city services they have a number of these trailer generators just sitting there. Or go to a rental center and allocate them. 

No effort was made on leadership part. They expected firefighters to use what, nasty looks to put out the fires once water stopped? 

There was no way they could cut a fire line in that time, on those hills, with the way everything was. That's like asking em to go stand in a 35 degree hill of gasoline rags as flames approached and try to clear it. 

Water was the only chance, to knock down embers in areas as they started jump fires. That's how the old man and his son did it. 

Wow..... 

So it looks like, if CalFire went and robbed the local Home Depot, and put teams of 2 people with a garden hose pumping from pools, they could have saved about 2,000% more homes...... If not more. 

Yeah, I call that an epic failure of leadership. Or really just thinking in general. 

What get's me is what appears to be no accountability. Just demands that tax payors across the nation flip the bill for it all. 

No, I say too bad. CA can flip the bill themselves. They made there bed, they can lay in it's ashes. 

I totally get that. 

What baffles me is in a fire zone, where it's a normalized thing to need to turn off power grid for safety sake of fires, is there really nobody who thought of having generators at the water lift stations? 

I mean, come-on, that's rather obvious isn't it? 

You need water to fight fires. Need pumps to keep water going. Seems rather obvious to have backup power generation given a policy to turn power off in fire risk instances. 

There was the 1 guy in the middle of the fires who stayed and saved I don't know how many homes, several, because he ran around with a dang garden hose. I am betting via a home generator and a well. 1 old man and a garden hose..... 

So yeah, I question what could have been if someone put there thinking cap on and took a mobile generator to the lift stations so the hydrants would have had water....... 

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

We don't have the labor to make more things in the US. 

We still have about 7.4 million open jobs and vs 7 million unemployed. You can't drive unemployment to zero. Anything under 5% is considered full employment. And we are at 4.1%. So while it sounds great to "bring jobs back" - who is going to do them?

And we also have a qualification problem. A modern auto factory does not require much unskilled labor. Material is moved by automated forklifts, and assembly is either done or assisted by robots to meet TQM standards. Much of what you need are engineers and highly skilled workers. We are already short on both.

I doubt that most of the 40% unemployed men of the inner city of Detroit are a good fit for a modern day manufacturing plant.

The Apple CEO Tim Cook said famously: people think we manufacture in China because labor is cheap. The real reason is they have a vast pool of HIGHLY qualified skilled labor.  Video.

I have spent almost 20 years working for a global manufacturer. For any machine that was produced in our US factory and the components needed to assemble the decision was to either fully automate the process to 24/7 production here in the US - or offshore to MX or CHN, the difference being the response time to change orders (6 months vs 6 weeks) due to geographic distance. MX kept us more flexible.

Here is a picture of the BMW plant in Spartenburg, SC and if you want to see the list of jobs they have it's here https://www.bmwgroup.jobs/us/en/location/location-spartanbur...

Why should we care about Apples phones etc.  If they aren't going to bring opportunity to Americans to buy a house, provide for a family then they are not a priority, if they go broke "thems the breaks".  They can take all the money they are spending sending missiles and weapons all across the world and get the folks in Detroit up to speed for those good jobs Apple has.  Americans don't need more technology, we need some good jobs that can create strong communities, towns, neighborhoods etc.  And if your business doesn't provide that then your business is not a priority.  Am I missing something?

Yes, I think you missed my point. It's not about Apple. The issue is: we have more open jobs than people looking for jobs. In other words: we don't need more jobs. And if we create more jobs, who is going to take them?

And a large portion of the people unemployed today have a qualification problem. Simple manual labor is not a thing anymore. You need automation engineers who can troubleshoot a FANUC 6-axis robot - and not a grunt to do heavy manual labor.

And you are not going to train a 40 year old unskilled laborer to become an engineer. Heck, who would even make the investment to pay for college with only 20 working years left to retirement?

Good jobs to create strong communities" sounds really great, we all want that, I am all for it. But the definition of what a good job looks like has changed. Give it another 3 or 5 years. Machines will be picking your strawberries, because they will do it cheaper, better and also at night.

We can recreate an economy like it was in the 80s with "Good jobs for hard working Americans". Tune back the technology. But the world will move on and the ones who say America is a dying empire will have been right.

People today have a qualification problem because the jobs have been shipped over to asia, and industries like timber has been crushed by regulation with the help of BlackRock etc so they can use cheaper labor and make more money.  Nike, Apple etc use these people in asia like slaves the governments are totally corrupt with no labor or environmental protection, impossible for us to compete with that.  The outsourcing of the nations wealth Wall Street and the corporate outsourcers took a huge cut off the top and sent it overseas.  Thats how I view it and that is why Trump was elected I believe.  If Apple can't make money building their technology or Nike can't build their dumb woke shoes here and make money I'm good with that let them go broke.  It took along time to get our population as fat and ignorant as they are today (God bless them, LOL) there could be alot of pain and time whipping our country back into shape.

I didn't know shoes can be woke, good thing I don't have any Nike lol. I agree that Wallstreet and turbo-capitalism took the wealth from the middle class, but the real question is weather it is feasible for us to on-shore production in a reasonable time, AND get wages up AND keep prices from shooting up so affordability gets better AND redistribute income back to the middle class.

It took as all of the 80s, 90s and 00s to offshore our manufacturing. Moving factories and building supply chains takes decades. Raising a workforce with the right qualifications takes a generation. And the sweatshop China you describe has been rapidly vanishing and is being replaced with hyper modern fully automated facilities. 

And you need a very qualified workforce to run them: 1.5 million engineers graduate every year in China, I believe we are just over 100,000

We are asking if we could re-open some of the mothballed factories that was designed to manually assemble a Ford Granada. Meanwhile, BYD is just finishing a car manufacturing plant the size of San Francisco - about 50 square miles large - that will produce a million cars per year. Highly automated factory, not a sweatshop. 

And the cars are amazing! I usually drive German SUVs, but every Chinese car I have driven in the last 2 years makes me realize that they are getting ahead in every aspect. For half the price

So, yeah - something has to change. We can't keep importing everything and the only thing we ship the other way is dollar bills. We do this long enough they have all the dollars and we have all the stuff. Then what?

First I think everyone needs to wrap there head around accepting the fundamental fact that the path USA was on only ends 1 way; INSOLVENCY. 

That is just a fact. And oddly enough, as much as people burry there head in the sand to it, countless experts have been sounding the alarms on this for literally years.

For years there has been a similar denial culture in South Africa. Friends and family would ask me and wife when back visiting of why don't we move back, why are we "suffering" in USA. And in many ways we were suffering in USA vs the lifestyle we could readily have in South Africa. 

But we saw the writing on the wall, the future was certain, we knew what was coming, the reaping of certain actions. 

Now, nobody has been able to swim on Durban beach for over a year because of the human waste, YES human feces river literally streaming out 24-7 and nothing being done to the infrastructure. 

Load shedding...... Imagine 4-7hrs of electricity a day, or less. Especially when hot. 

This is the future of USA if something DRASTIC is not done. The crisis in South Africa didn't happen over a few years, it was decades in the making. Decades of neglect, ignorance, can kicking, avoidance, corruption, fraud and sticking heads in the sand. Until finally the issues rupture so big it's all but impossible to deny the stench, very literally.

I don't think anyone sane is saying it will be easy in USA, but it's NECESSARY. 

How fast can it be? I'd argue speed comes from level of necessity. When the Japanese hit Pearl Harbor the USA was half foot into the war, or so it thought it was, and realized it was sooooo far under equipped or ready that it effectively was wholly unequipped or prepared. And the USA panicked BUT panicked with purpose. 

In lightning speed, no not decades, the USA built an industrial TITAN of manufacturing that out produced the entire axis forces to a scale of multiplication factors. 

It CAN be done. It HAS been done before. 

Labor, both skilled and unskilled CAN be trained, in scale, and at lightning speed. It has been done before. 

Necessity is the Mother of invention, but also the Father of motivation. 

CAN the USA? Well of course it can, it already has, and there was no playbook on how-to back then so absolutely no excuses this time around for "can we". 

The question, the question of all questions is; WILL WE....... 

The USA culture is still deeply entrenched in denialism. In it's own sense of grandiosity to even conceive it is anything less than the center of the universe and no nation can possibly compete more or less eclipse it. Despite all the facts and reality to the contrary. Still trying to coast on the steam of a generation lost to time. 

I do not think those under 45 have any concept of what's at stake. 

It's a question of will-power not infrastructure. USA has proven this before. If and when the will-power exists, nothing can't be done. Mountains will be moved, fleet's built, a sleeping giant will awaken.....

A great speech writer has been lost on you James! I get the picture.. and I am 50 BTW

Couple thoughts: if you read Ray Dalio you start to get a sense where the US was headed and that's not good. You can't maintain a 1.5T trade deficit forever, we are basically exporting money and then borrow it back. That is a terminal trajectory.

I don't know what the solution should be, but I think that turning a consumption-based economy (70% of GDP) into a production-based economy is no small feat. If it is possible at all!

It took China 30 years to rise, out of brutal necessity, and with massive economic help from the US. We WANTED them to make cheap stuff for us and they were beyond willing to do that. The US is a gigantic consumer and we kept blowing oxygen into that fire for decades and made it the world largest factory. If there would not have been a continuous stream of money from the US (and others) it would not have happened.

Who in the world would want buy US products (at scale) and why?

We would have to produce either better or cheaper.

The car industry makes it painfully clear that we are neither! Heck, it pains me to say, but even the German carmakers have lost that race to the Chinese in the last years on both accounts.

I love the idea of the US coming together for a massive cause and rally, we have to acknowledge that the leap that is required to do so is geometrically larger compared to WW2 efforts. 

Yes, you can train a farmboy to weld a crude Normandy-style landing boat in a couple weeks. You can't train an Amazon worker or truck driver to become a robotics engineer, not in a couple years, probably ever.

Here is a list of open jobs from the Tesla website to give you a sense:

Sr. Industrial Engineer, Megapack
Maintenance Planner & Procurement Specialist, Lithium Refinery
5 Axis CNC Machinist, Die Shop
Metallurgical Engineer, Die Shop
Production Planner, Die Shop
Sr. Quality Engineer, Stationary Battery Enclosure, Megapack
Staff Quality Engineer, Megapack
Staff Process Engineer, General Assembly, Megapack
Associate Engineering Manager, Production Control, Megapack
Sr. Process Engineer, Production Control, Megapack
Project Engineer, New Product Introduction, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Powder Coat, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Module & Power Electronics, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Body in White, Megafactory

I love Ray Dalio, he has an amazing talent for communicating wildly intricate, complex things in a way that seems almost simplistic, yet retains all nuances of the details. 

FYI, I also graduated in mid 90's. Yes people, I am a Grandpa, several times over. I am very blessed to have blue-zone genes. 

The notion that USA was going to be a consumer economy, and that it would some how lead to prosperity was one of, if not THE, greatest con's ever pulled off. 

I recall when the entire lunacy of it was announced and championed. It was immediately apparent to me of "how will the nation make $" and that was not an ok opinion to have on it. It felt very Roman-esk, the masses wanted to just enjoy there bread & games.... 

The concept of an ip economy has well been proven as a spruce goose. 

ip has always been, and always will be, the most vulnerable of assets. Easily stolen through a variety of mechanisms. As China has well proven and championed. 

I don't blame the Chinese, I don't, if anything I envy them. 

I believe the only shot USA and for that matter, the western nations have as a whole, have is a methodical concerted effort and actions to change the social dynamics. The mindsets must shift. Without that, it will all fail. 

Americans have to exterminate their social narcissism. 
The prevailing word of language must become "WE" replacing me, I, my...... 

My fear is the history. 

Americans have a deep history for action after the fact. Europe burned and burned and burned and only after punched straight in the face at Pearl and a miracle staving off total obliteration in the Pacific did USA shift. 

Is that what will be required again? A catastrophe verging on total absolute calamity to bring Americans together as a unified, roll up the sleeve, do what we gotta do "UNUM". 

In 1939 the US military was less that than Portugal's..... Under 190k. 

In 1940, leading up to Pearl, they jokingly thought they were "prepared" at almost 500k. 

Within 12 months of Pearl, over 3 million strong. 24 months later and roughly 8 million....... 

In less than 48 months the USA built, from dirt, the biggest most powerful fighting force the world had ever seen. 

That includes clothing, housing, feeding, training millions upon millions upon milliions. 

Think; how'd they shazam up that many boot's? 

How'd they ever find that many dentist's? 

How in the heck did they manage to move enough food and water every day for millions upon millions? 

The logistics are absolutely mind boggling. And it was achieved in a measurement of weeks and months, not years and decades. 

Everything, EVERYTHING had to be built, created to facilitate it all. There was not enough toilet paper in all the nation for those soldiers butt's. They had to grow manufacturing capacity for literally everything at a rate not only never done in the USA, but never done in human history. 

I don't know how we can do it again, but WE CAN, we did, we did it because we HAD TO. Failure was not an option. 

That mindset lead the way of everything. There was no place for lamenting how hard whatever would be, or how this or that wasn't readily available. A generation of problem solvers, because that was the messaging, that was the requirement expected of everyone, how can you help, what can you solve, what can you do for the greater whole. 

"We do these things not because they are easy....."

If that spirit is gone and dead...... Than so is the USA.....

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

We don't have the labor to make more things in the US. 

We still have about 7.4 million open jobs and vs 7 million unemployed. You can't drive unemployment to zero. Anything under 5% is considered full employment. And we are at 4.1%. So while it sounds great to "bring jobs back" - who is going to do them?

And we also have a qualification problem. A modern auto factory does not require much unskilled labor. Material is moved by automated forklifts, and assembly is either done or assisted by robots to meet TQM standards. Much of what you need are engineers and highly skilled workers. We are already short on both.

I doubt that most of the 40% unemployed men of the inner city of Detroit are a good fit for a modern day manufacturing plant.

The Apple CEO Tim Cook said famously: people think we manufacture in China because labor is cheap. The real reason is they have a vast pool of HIGHLY qualified skilled labor.  Video.

I have spent almost 20 years working for a global manufacturer. For any machine that was produced in our US factory and the components needed to assemble the decision was to either fully automate the process to 24/7 production here in the US - or offshore to MX or CHN, the difference being the response time to change orders (6 months vs 6 weeks) due to geographic distance. MX kept us more flexible.

Here is a picture of the BMW plant in Spartenburg, SC and if you want to see the list of jobs they have it's here https://www.bmwgroup.jobs/us/en/location/location-spartanbur...

Why should we care about Apples phones etc.  If they aren't going to bring opportunity to Americans to buy a house, provide for a family then they are not a priority, if they go broke "thems the breaks".  They can take all the money they are spending sending missiles and weapons all across the world and get the folks in Detroit up to speed for those good jobs Apple has.  Americans don't need more technology, we need some good jobs that can create strong communities, towns, neighborhoods etc.  And if your business doesn't provide that then your business is not a priority.  Am I missing something?

Yes, I think you missed my point. It's not about Apple. The issue is: we have more open jobs than people looking for jobs. In other words: we don't need more jobs. And if we create more jobs, who is going to take them?

And a large portion of the people unemployed today have a qualification problem. Simple manual labor is not a thing anymore. You need automation engineers who can troubleshoot a FANUC 6-axis robot - and not a grunt to do heavy manual labor.

And you are not going to train a 40 year old unskilled laborer to become an engineer. Heck, who would even make the investment to pay for college with only 20 working years left to retirement?

Good jobs to create strong communities" sounds really great, we all want that, I am all for it. But the definition of what a good job looks like has changed. Give it another 3 or 5 years. Machines will be picking your strawberries, because they will do it cheaper, better and also at night.

We can recreate an economy like it was in the 80s with "Good jobs for hard working Americans". Tune back the technology. But the world will move on and the ones who say America is a dying empire will have been right.

People today have a qualification problem because the jobs have been shipped over to asia, and industries like timber has been crushed by regulation with the help of BlackRock etc so they can use cheaper labor and make more money.  Nike, Apple etc use these people in asia like slaves the governments are totally corrupt with no labor or environmental protection, impossible for us to compete with that.  The outsourcing of the nations wealth Wall Street and the corporate outsourcers took a huge cut off the top and sent it overseas.  Thats how I view it and that is why Trump was elected I believe.  If Apple can't make money building their technology or Nike can't build their dumb woke shoes here and make money I'm good with that let them go broke.  It took along time to get our population as fat and ignorant as they are today (God bless them, LOL) there could be alot of pain and time whipping our country back into shape.

I didn't know shoes can be woke, good thing I don't have any Nike lol. I agree that Wallstreet and turbo-capitalism took the wealth from the middle class, but the real question is weather it is feasible for us to on-shore production in a reasonable time, AND get wages up AND keep prices from shooting up so affordability gets better AND redistribute income back to the middle class.

It took as all of the 80s, 90s and 00s to offshore our manufacturing. Moving factories and building supply chains takes decades. Raising a workforce with the right qualifications takes a generation. And the sweatshop China you describe has been rapidly vanishing and is being replaced with hyper modern fully automated facilities. 

And you need a very qualified workforce to run them: 1.5 million engineers graduate every year in China, I believe we are just over 100,000

We are asking if we could re-open some of the mothballed factories that was designed to manually assemble a Ford Granada. Meanwhile, BYD is just finishing a car manufacturing plant the size of San Francisco - about 50 square miles large - that will produce a million cars per year. Highly automated factory, not a sweatshop. 

And the cars are amazing! I usually drive German SUVs, but every Chinese car I have driven in the last 2 years makes me realize that they are getting ahead in every aspect. For half the price

So, yeah - something has to change. We can't keep importing everything and the only thing we ship the other way is dollar bills. We do this long enough they have all the dollars and we have all the stuff. Then what?

First I think everyone needs to wrap there head around accepting the fundamental fact that the path USA was on only ends 1 way; INSOLVENCY. 

That is just a fact. And oddly enough, as much as people burry there head in the sand to it, countless experts have been sounding the alarms on this for literally years.

For years there has been a similar denial culture in South Africa. Friends and family would ask me and wife when back visiting of why don't we move back, why are we "suffering" in USA. And in many ways we were suffering in USA vs the lifestyle we could readily have in South Africa. 

But we saw the writing on the wall, the future was certain, we knew what was coming, the reaping of certain actions. 

Now, nobody has been able to swim on Durban beach for over a year because of the human waste, YES human feces river literally streaming out 24-7 and nothing being done to the infrastructure. 

Load shedding...... Imagine 4-7hrs of electricity a day, or less. Especially when hot. 

This is the future of USA if something DRASTIC is not done. The crisis in South Africa didn't happen over a few years, it was decades in the making. Decades of neglect, ignorance, can kicking, avoidance, corruption, fraud and sticking heads in the sand. Until finally the issues rupture so big it's all but impossible to deny the stench, very literally.

I don't think anyone sane is saying it will be easy in USA, but it's NECESSARY. 

How fast can it be? I'd argue speed comes from level of necessity. When the Japanese hit Pearl Harbor the USA was half foot into the war, or so it thought it was, and realized it was sooooo far under equipped or ready that it effectively was wholly unequipped or prepared. And the USA panicked BUT panicked with purpose. 

In lightning speed, no not decades, the USA built an industrial TITAN of manufacturing that out produced the entire axis forces to a scale of multiplication factors. 

It CAN be done. It HAS been done before. 

Labor, both skilled and unskilled CAN be trained, in scale, and at lightning speed. It has been done before. 

Necessity is the Mother of invention, but also the Father of motivation. 

CAN the USA? Well of course it can, it already has, and there was no playbook on how-to back then so absolutely no excuses this time around for "can we". 

The question, the question of all questions is; WILL WE....... 

The USA culture is still deeply entrenched in denialism. In it's own sense of grandiosity to even conceive it is anything less than the center of the universe and no nation can possibly compete more or less eclipse it. Despite all the facts and reality to the contrary. Still trying to coast on the steam of a generation lost to time. 

I do not think those under 45 have any concept of what's at stake. 

It's a question of will-power not infrastructure. USA has proven this before. If and when the will-power exists, nothing can't be done. Mountains will be moved, fleet's built, a sleeping giant will awaken.....

The average monthly cost of living in China can range from $440 to $1000 USD, depending on the city size and lifestyle. Larger cities like Beijing and Shanghai are more expensive, while smaller cities are more affordable. Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• Larger Metropolitan Cities (e.g., Beijing, Shanghai): Expect to spend around $800 to $1,000 USD per month.
• Smaller Cities: You might be able to live comfortably on $440 to $750 USD per month.

Knowing there is a rather universal ratio near or in the 1:3 range of gross income too living expense, going off the median cost of living in China that states a realistic "average' or median incomes of $1,320 - $3k mnth.     Not $300, nowhere even close too $300mnth. 

Kind of like here in USA. There is areas of minimum wage around $10hr or even less, and that is not by any stretch of the imagination the living wages or even the average or normalized wages pretty much anywhere in US. 

Minimum wage is just that, MINIMUM, as in the most basic most entry level for like kids, teens just starting out. Not an economic basis. 

So yes, wages DO look to be a lot closer to on PAR with USA's than some big savings multiplier. Not to mention after factoring shipping from opposite side of the planet. 

Why the singular focus on distressed opportunities?

Think of it this way; what is it at root that makes distressed good? It's the value-add, right? 

Well, value-add comes in a whole assortment of flavors, not just that 1 vehicle of distressed. 

Example: 

Almost 3yrs ago now as it got next to impossible to land a buy, multiple offers and crazy over ask for seemingly anything, we had to pivot. So, I took this client of mine to look at a very different play, phase I new development. I found a great townhome development, phase I, surrounded by nice SFH's, was a bit nicer then average townhomes call it "sheq" townhomes, not luxury but definently much nicer then average.

Getting with builder, knowing full plan, we got in early. Was able to snag in low $300's. It was a lot at time for townhome. But surrounding homes were just popping over $500's so it was "cheap' vs the area which was "catching fire" for desire and trending. 

We leased it in 17 days listing. Nearly $3k rents, to exactly who we targeted. Divorcing upper middle class professional who worked hybred and valued our 3br + office. 

A year and a half later, had our first vacancy coming up and, yet again, had it leased in 19 days listing this time 2 full weeks before exiting tenant had even moved out making for 0 vacancy. 

And yes, again, divorcing upper middle class professional, home owner in the area, 2.5 kids yada-yada. 

Fast forward to today. Development is 100% completed, development has expanded out, and current market value is in the low $400's. 

How? 

What too many don't know is new-con development has a unique factor potential in appreciation called FORCED appreciation. 

See, knowing this builder, being a registered insider with em, There profit is on the last 10% of units. And as everyone sells, the "game" is how much they can price up the next. It's all designed into it. So knowing this, I come in phase I and offer a win-win. We help build velocity, because for them velocity = more profits. More velocity = faster/bigger rate of price increase, which = higher sold $ on those important last 10% = bigger net on the development. 

And I don't hack at the sold price, no, we protect that. Buuuut there is more then 1 way to skin a cat, and get discounts. So we get them to pay 100% agent fee's, 100% closing, kick in all the freebies for appliances and what-not AND cover all loan origination fee's, rate buy-down etc etc.. Now, a 5% rate vs 6.5% may not seem like $ in the pocket but I assure you it is. 

And that's what we got, 5% flat. Awesome sauce! 

Is it a traditional value-add? No, not really. 

BUT, we are still doing exactly this but also with unfinished basements that are fully plumbed in and framed for future finish AND have all arcitectural prints for the finish, nicely setup to just pull lines, rock, trim, flooring and vhwallah 3br 3ba turns into 4br 4ba. 

Value-add. 

And in the new-con side, we got supply. Not just supply but supply controls not available anywhere else in market. We can view traffic studies, populace growth studies, all this nerdy report stuff telling us what to expect in future and from that, quantify a projection for rent and home sale appreciation. 

because again, FORCED appreciation. I get to see all the plans and intentions of where the builders prices are going. And they are literally setting the market prices in these areas, setting the comp's. 

 The opportunities are out there. They just come packaged a bit differently.