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All Forum Posts by: Jay Hinrichs

Jay Hinrichs has started 323 posts and replied 41211 times.

Post: Impact of International Travelers Cancelling US Travel

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 42,951
  • Votes 63,388
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Trent Reeve:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Trent Reeve:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Trent Reeve:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

"but according to a 2024 report from Social Security’s inspector general"

The reason that so many IG's were fired recently was because they are in on the game. They have little interest in uncovering fraud and waste because it would reveal their corruptness.


 thats not why they were fired, but you believe what you want



"thats not why they were fired, but you believe what you want"


Oh I will....As you may know, IGs were introduced under Carter. Since then, the oversight process has gone to h*ll resulting (in part) in the immense waste and fraud.

This is much like the Dept of Education (also created under Mr Carter, hmmm). Before that horrendous day, the US was #1 in education...now we are #40.


 you understand, education priorities and curriculum are set by state, not federally. 

"you understand, education priorities and curriculum are set by state, not federally"

Of course. That's exactly why we do not need a Federally managed Department to oversee a State issue.

 except to ensure even disabled kids have access to education.


Who do you think is dumb enough to believe this garbage? 

Do you seriously expect anyone to believe disabled kids are denied education or access to education by there States, Counties or cities? And it requires the Federal Gov to get involved so disabled kids get education access..... 

GARBAGE! I call BS to that inferment. And anyone with an ounce of intelligence will too. 

THIS is why D's are polling at 27% now, because of total blatant BS like this. It doesn't even take the internet to see what BS this is, anyone who's had kids in schools knows this is BS. 

Ridiculous, seriously, just ridiculous. 


 FWIW  the DOE was a gift to the NEA for their "support"



FWIW the DOE was a gift to the NEA for their "support"


Exactly! And look what has happened since ten. Pathetic. I just read that a 7th grader in the US is at the same level as a 3rd grader in China. And kids in Baltimore? Only 7% are proficient in basic studies....yes, 7 PER CENT!

its all about the parents..  I look at my grandkids whose parents are highly involved and they are above grade level in pretty much all subjects.  One set are in public school one set in private school.. In some of the inner city of which you mention the issues are far deeper. 

Post: The Bigger Pockets Mount Rushmore

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 42,951
  • Votes 63,388

for others to add to the list

Don Knopil

Mike Dimski

Chris Seveney

Mike and Don for quality or quantity !! Chris gives both. 

Post: Scammed by "Estate Legal"

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 42,951
  • Votes 63,388
Quote from @JD Martin:

I'll say one thing - you're not doing your business any favors here by continuing the arbitration push. You have several vocal and determined customers that are unhappy with your service, and you appear to be throwing logs in their path to some kind of full/partial refund. Arbitration is either going to refuse them a refund on some technical issue in what they've signed or agreed to, or give them a partial or full refund. Why not just skip straight to the chase and do that yourself? $3400 is chicken feed in the grand scheme of things, especially for legitimate, operating businesses. I've known lots of businesses that paid people more than that just to go away happy. 


agreed these guys are committing on line business suicide  JD. One has to think it was premeditated .  U have to hire the arb company and a lawyer cost more to do that than what they paid for the service so no one is going to go to arb.. YUP  pretty silly.

Post: Scammed by "Estate Legal"

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 42,951
  • Votes 63,388
Quote from @Christopher Johnson:

Zachary, and others, this is defamatory and actionable. Zachary, your response said " not sue intimidation tactics instead of resolving complaints" ... This is bizarre. We've been asking you to resolve issues, through the method you agreed to use, when you signed an agreement with us. You refuse to, but now you contradict yourself when you claim we dont want to "resolve complaints" .... We would be glad to address and resolve any issue through Arbitration through the American Arbitration Association. Why would you refuse to follow the required alternative dispute resolution process as required in the contract you signed? Just like this website most likely has terms of service, every other site has these terms. Your refusal to Arbitrate the matter, even though you contractually agreed to do so renders your position not credible and frivolous. If individuals are allowed to circumvent business agreements, what would be the need for contracts? Zachary - All of you have refused time and time again to cooperate with ADR. Are you willing to arbitrate the matter and resolve any issues (as required via agreement) through the American Arbitration Association? And if not, why not? You agreed to do that in the past. If you're not willing to go before a mediator/arbitrator, the next question is why do you refuse to take the matter before legal arbitration? You wish to circumvent that required step, which is not a fair way to do business.

Again, We are committed to transparency, a quality experience, and helping our clients and partners achieve collaborative success. We'd like to share that this matter is being discussed in arbitration, per long-standing company policy, we will not to comment on this matter further until Arbitration is concluded.

We hope that those reading this post will reserve judgment until this matter is concluded in Arbitration, and we are ready to share the conclusion.

We take our reputation very seriously and are dismayed at these claims. We are more than happy to address and resolve any issue you may have in the appropriate way and forum.

However, we will make it very clear, that these allegations are false. Again, we encourage anyone who may have any issue, to contact us to discuss possible solutions, and if applicable , initiate arbitration through the American Arbitration Association. Thank you.


LOL  

Post: How Do You Choose the Right Out-of-State Market?

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 42,951
  • Votes 63,388

well you got the usual Columbus agents responses kind of an inside joke on BP..

I have quite a bit of experience in this myself as a investor and lender of OOS since 2002 started in Detroit and have funded and owned in about 20 plus states throughout the mid west and rust belt.

The markets by and large are darn near interchangeable.  

Property taxs

Insurance

are two things to check on and this is what makes Las Vegas really attractive lowest in the country for both basically.. Plus weather is important for long term maintenance  

However regardless of market you choose I always suggest you determine the Median price point for an SFR in the MSA and buy at that or above for an OOS investor.. this will get you better neighborhood better tenant and usually better schools. And we know those items are the driver for values to hold and rise..

U don't want to invest in a market that has a median of 250k then buy a 120k property logic will dictate the price point sets for RISK and desirability..  Locals who self manage and live there can take more risk but when your 1500 miles away you should de risk your purchase and go for solid property.

Plus the 250k and above will appreciate the 120k is investor dominated sales and values will only track rental income which moves very slowly.. homeowners always pay more for a home to live in than an investor will pay.

Post: seeking private lending and hard money lending

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 42,951
  • Votes 63,388
Quote from @Justin Mumm:

thanks for getting back to me.  i have ave credit but not a down payment.  i am looking for a lender that looks at what the property is worth more than the downpayment amount.  


very rare these days to be able to get a loan one off with NONE of your own cash I think your wasting your time at the moment.. I think personally your time would be better spent finding a CASH partner once you have the cash down the loan will be quite easy.. 

Post: Massive inventory boom in Southwest Florida's housing market raises questions

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 42,951
  • Votes 63,388
Quote from @Mike Anderson:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Mike Anderson:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Mike Anderson:

My wife and I have been looking in this market. Had a long conversation about this with a couple buddies last night actually.

I have to assume that market (and I am including Fort Myers) is a heavy second home market. Maybe more so than most other markets, which is what we are looking at it for as a second home to have to get out of the mountains where we live and enjoy the beach and more amenities of a larger city.

We aren't as concerned with rates as we are cash buyers but the carry cost with HOA's due's, taxes, and the other items are just too high to justify. With the boomers getting older and them being so large in terms of sheer size I have to wonder how many people in 5 to 10 years will be willing to float 1k+ HOA fees.Are there enough to backfill into these places and keep the HOA's solvent? Once the amount of snowbirds and retirees starts dropping, I have to assume when the younger generations who are stilling working receive some of these in the estate if they sell because the carry costs are so high because its not worth keeping to spend a week or two there even without a mortgage. The younger generations seem to really enjoy traveling but they like going to different places and not commit to just one place. There are exceptions to all of these thoughts of course but I think we might be looking at a really bumpy road in these markets if we can't figure out how to get these costs down.

I'm just not convinced that enough people will be willing long term to pay these high HOA fee's, insurance costs, and property taxes for a second home. It's going to interesting, I welcome all thoughts and opinions on this.


I dont think a lot of the SFRs that have been built in the 3000 to 400k range have those kind of HOA's I think maybe your talking about a condo.. and those are legit concerns for FLA condos

Condo or townhouse. 

I have a townhouse in Vegas its 450 a month.. Just fyi.. so your probably right on the money factoring in 450 to 1k a month.. our rate has not gone up in the 7 years I have own it. Although the development does not have any real amenities  just a crappy little pool we never use. but nicely located and its gated which in my mind in Vegas  is pretty much a necessity.  U could for sure buy something out in Lehigh acres for probably  steal and those are large lots that you could park your RV no problem. Not sure you want to live there though :)  

RV resorts are pretty cool I have tracked a few over the years thinking about developing one myself.. never got to it.. But I have seen a few really nice ones..  One in Bend Or and other up on Flathead lake in Montana.. I suspect the RV lots sell pretty much north of 100k each and have a real sense of community when the owners pull in and stay for a while.  ANything like that in your neck of the woods ?  Or do everyone just buy cabins and go to the local KOA for their RV needs ?

I've seen as high as 2200$ to 2300$ HOA a month. I have no idea how that will hold up. Not like super high end either in the 300-500k condo...

The issue with RV lots right now is people are asking more for one that you can get a townhouse or condo for. With HOA's around 1000-1200 a quarter and they don't even mow any grass on your lot or anything so it seems odd. I've looked at the ones in Gulf Waters down in fort myers they seem nice but not worth the cost in my opinion. Yes tons this way in my neck of the woods you can buy the lot and own it, and either rent it or live on it.


2k plus a month HOA is for sure a non starter for me as well.. when I lived at Silverado CC in Napa Valley..  our hoa for our neigbhorhood was about 200 a month that was in the 90s and that included all exterior yard work and water bill  tennis court and pool.. then as members of the CC club that was another 400 a month or so.. but that incuded two Robert Trent Jones golf courses  the club house  SPA with work out faciities and lap pool.. 27 tennis courts.. special dinning nights with 1/2 off etc etc.. For the 10 years I lived there is was worth every penny. 

Post: Massive inventory boom in Southwest Florida's housing market raises questions

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 42,951
  • Votes 63,388
Quote from @Mike Anderson:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Mike Anderson:

My wife and I have been looking in this market. Had a long conversation about this with a couple buddies last night actually.

I have to assume that market (and I am including Fort Myers) is a heavy second home market. Maybe more so than most other markets, which is what we are looking at it for as a second home to have to get out of the mountains where we live and enjoy the beach and more amenities of a larger city.

We aren't as concerned with rates as we are cash buyers but the carry cost with HOA's due's, taxes, and the other items are just too high to justify. With the boomers getting older and them being so large in terms of sheer size I have to wonder how many people in 5 to 10 years will be willing to float 1k+ HOA fees.Are there enough to backfill into these places and keep the HOA's solvent? Once the amount of snowbirds and retirees starts dropping, I have to assume when the younger generations who are stilling working receive some of these in the estate if they sell because the carry costs are so high because its not worth keeping to spend a week or two there even without a mortgage. The younger generations seem to really enjoy traveling but they like going to different places and not commit to just one place. There are exceptions to all of these thoughts of course but I think we might be looking at a really bumpy road in these markets if we can't figure out how to get these costs down.

I'm just not convinced that enough people will be willing long term to pay these high HOA fee's, insurance costs, and property taxes for a second home. It's going to interesting, I welcome all thoughts and opinions on this.


I dont think a lot of the SFRs that have been built in the 3000 to 400k range have those kind of HOA's I think maybe your talking about a condo.. and those are legit concerns for FLA condos

Condo or townhouse. 

I have a townhouse in Vegas its 450 a month.. Just fyi.. so your probably right on the money factoring in 450 to 1k a month.. our rate has not gone up in the 7 years I have own it. Although the development does not have any real amenities  just a crappy little pool we never use. but nicely located and its gated which in my mind in Vegas  is pretty much a necessity.  U could for sure buy something out in Lehigh acres for probably  steal and those are large lots that you could park your RV no problem. Not sure you want to live there though :)  

RV resorts are pretty cool I have tracked a few over the years thinking about developing one myself.. never got to it.. But I have seen a few really nice ones..  One in Bend Or and other up on Flathead lake in Montana.. I suspect the RV lots sell pretty much north of 100k each and have a real sense of community when the owners pull in and stay for a while.  ANything like that in your neck of the woods ?  Or do everyone just buy cabins and go to the local KOA for their RV needs ?

Post: At what point does a house's appreciation slow down?

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 42,951
  • Votes 63,388
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

There is no universal answer on appreciation vs age. Home values go up with inflation plus any extra demand for an area. 

The importance is square footage is often underestimated. 

That brings you to cost per square foot as a metric - sometimes buying a larger home in a A+ area and remodeling it completely is a very good way to force appreciation.


having lived in Palo Alto for years and being rasied in Cupertino.. which values track Irvine. the value is in the LAND not the house.. 70 year old homes in Palo alto sell for 2 to 3 million and are then torn down for a new build.  Its location location location large lot that allows a mcmansion new build in my mind is were the appreciation value will be.. U could easily see the older home on large lot have a residual land value of 4 mil in 20 years.. 

this is happening NOW in Lake Oswego Or were I live currently.. old homes on big lots get sold for 500 to 700k and are torn down.. those houses 15 years ago sold for 200 to 300k .. My current home I did that.. I paid 300k for a tear down in 2008  ( bad timing LOL) tore it down but could not build because the market went to crap.  But hung on built in 2013 at a cost of about 450k which was 120 a foot.  So in it 750k and its doubled in value since 2013. But if I just had the land and never built it would be worth 600 to 700k as well. 

thats the play with high cost CA OR WA real estate in my mind.. the lack of land and the middle housing push all cities are doing now for tiny lots and high density is going to put a real premium on lots that you can build a larger mcmansion.   Just my opinion of course for whatever its worth :)

Post: Massive inventory boom in Southwest Florida's housing market raises questions

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 42,951
  • Votes 63,388
Quote from @Andres Montbrun:

It's wild how much inventory has spiked in Florida—definitely shifts the power toward buyers. I mean, a 7% mortgage rate might sound steep compared to the lows we just saw, but if you really dig into history, rates were north of 18% back in the early '80s. So while today's environment feels tough, it's actually not as crazy as it might seem in a broader context.

That said, the sheer volume of homes on the market is really pushing sellers to negotiate hard, which could mean some great deals for those who know how to play it. Personally, I think this is a golden moment for buyers to re-evaluate what they're willing to pay, while sellers might need to adjust their expectations.

I'm curious—how are you all factoring this historical perspective into your current strategies?


in my mind the investor with max leverage and a vacant house or not performing well will lose all thier equity on a sale.. I think values in those will drop to the point that the owners dont have to write a check to sell Like what happened to many of us in 08 to 2011. so to me thats the delta to play with when looking to buy.. first see how much is owed deduct sales cost come up with the true cash equity and offer the amount that gets them out of the loan and maybe a few grand of their equity.. Now some folks it could be phantom equity you know forced appreciation others it will be true cash equity they lose.. the phantom folks will be more motivated as they never truly have the equity anyway. the ones with actual cash into the deals will be a harder nut to crack.