Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Paul De Luca:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Can there be a crash if everyone "sees" it coming? If everyone is holding cash waiting for the buying opportunity of a lifetime, is it likely to really be the buying opportunity of a lifetime? Most people did not see the Great Recession coming and it was a real black swan event.

Seems like a lot of folks are in denial and are not going to see it coming. There will be a huge opportunity for those who are prepared. 

[Kate Barry]

I do think the housing market is changing and honestly I could not be more relieved. As a Realtor I saw so many people make horrible investments just because they thought this 20% price increase year over year would keep happening. It was like people lost their minds. They thought it was going to be so easy to buy STR properties in our Vermont ski markets and so it didn't matter that they were paying all cash, $100k or more over ask, with waived inspections and waived appraisals. Properties that have major deferred maintenance or need all new septic systems.... and they didn't account for the fact that there is no one here to manage and clean these properties for them. If you didn't use a seriously qualified Realtor who understands the STR business and was able to advise you on your investment- they are actually going to be seriously screwed. They have no idea what their costs are actually going to be, and if they were over estimating the income and under estimating the expenses (VASTLY!! I mean, do you know a new septic will cost 40k?? that 90% of homes are heated by oil??? That VT is also going to tax the absolute last drop out of you??) I think next year we will really start to see the turn in full force when these types of investors have no choice other than to sell at the end of winter/beginning of spring 2023.

[Leo R.]

@Greg R. before the rate hikes, DOM in my city was about 3-6 days (in nearly all price categories).  Now, it's about 22-30 DOM.  Naturally, price reductions have become much more common, and inventory has increased substantially...

I bought a property just before the rate hikes; the payment is about $3,100/mo. If I bought the same house today, with today's rates, the payment would be about $4,300 (w/ PMI), or $4,100 (without PMI)--that's a huge difference!

...the market is already very different than it was before the rate hikes...whether that leads to a "crash", I don't know...but time will tell...

Good luck out there!

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Paul De Luca:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Can there be a crash if everyone "sees" it coming? If everyone is holding cash waiting for the buying opportunity of a lifetime, is it likely to really be the buying opportunity of a lifetime? Most people did not see the Great Recession coming and it was a real black swan event.

Seems like a lot of folks are in denial and are not going to see it coming. There will be a huge opportunity for those who are prepared. 

Yea Blackrock (the biggest private landlord) already setup a new private equity to buy distressed/forced sale houses in Q4 this year. One reason there's less activity in the market is that those funds are stopped buying temporarily. 

But what's very interesting from actual last sold data is the home price trendline is still following the exact predictable pattern. In our area the typical *normal* appreciation is like $60k/year or around 6.85% appreciation YoY. Based on latest actual sold number, this number is still being followed. Yes 2020-2021 is extremely rare abnormal appreciation, and 2022 # is showing that PSF is following the trend from the last ten years. No changes.

  I just saw an ugly house in our market that is still being sold for more than the asking price LOL and following the exact Zillow HI pattern. It's just a market that's being normalized back to its trendlines.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Yea Blackrock (the biggest private landlord) already setup a new private equity to buy distressed/forced sale houses in Q4 this year. One reason there's less activity in the market is that those funds are stopped buying temporarily. 

That should tell us something. Multi-billion-dollar companies like Blackrock don't make decisions based on intuition and innuendo. They have a team of data analytic experts and follow the data very closely. They have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders to make the best decision based on the market data. They've already halted buying in 38 areas and are adding 10 more to that list effective October 1. They're still active in many markets, but this is a pretty big shift from their prior stance. Interested in seeing what they do through out the year. 

[Joshuam R.]

Quote from @Randall Weatherall:

Anyone that says anything in the housing market is 'impossible' probably isn't worth listening to or are very new and get a little too swept up in articles written by people with something to gain.

 Just wanted to say, your logo is pretty badazz.

[Eric Rosiello]

I guess I don't see what's so exciting here. The market was too hot so the Fed starting raising rates to cool things off a bit and that is what is happening. Yes - there are some people who are overleveraged and will fail but I think the majority of people have a decent amount of equity and manageable mortgages. The whole point of raising rates is to flush out the overexuberant actors in the market. 

If we were continuing to see prices skyrocket despite the higher rates I think that would be more concerning and more supportive of a bubble but so far that doesn't seem to be the case. If there is a "crash" in RE I think it would be on the back of a general economic downtown, not like '08 where RE was at the forefront of the recession. In general I think here in the US we are in pretty good shape given the continued global dependence on the dollar and where we stand in terms of energy independence. The Fed also finally has some ammo to lower rates if the economy slows too much.

It's obvious that higher lending costs make buying less attractive now, at least until prices come down in lock step. But that doesn't mean that there aren't opportunities out there. Yes if the market comes off a ton then it would have made sense to suspend buying and wait for lower prices, but that's not an easy thing to time. It's very hard to know the right time to get back in. Like others have said, there have been people on this forum calling for a correction or crash for years and if people suspended buying based on those opinions they would have missed a massive bull run. You could be right Greg, but maybe not. Better off discounting your models a bit than trying to time it perfectly in my opinion.

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Greg R.:

I dunno.....Zillow has had some poor decision making over the years. And others...these huge companies get over-confident and then they get arrogant and lazy. Look at recent interviews with Larry Fink as an example.....

I would not personally follow any large company down the primrose path. Just my HO

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Eric Rosiello:

The market was too hot so the Fed starting raising rates to cool things off a bit and that is what is happening.

The Feds did not raise rates to cool off the hot housing market. They did it to combat rising inflation, just like they have always done. One of the ancillary results was less loans being purchased.....

[Eric Rosiello]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Eric Rosiello:

The market was too hot so the Fed starting raising rates to cool things off a bit and that is what is happening.

The Feds did not raise rates to cool off the hot housing market. They did it to combat rising inflation, just like they have always done. One of the ancillary results was less loans being purchased.....

Agreed, not directly for the housing market.

Could have clarified with... raising rates slows the economy as whole, of which the housing market is a large part of...

[Tony Kim]

Took a quick peek at RE prices during past resets and recessions. The only time in we had a meaningful drop in prices was in '08. Heck, even in the 80's when mortgage rates were in the mid teens, the actual price drop we had across the nation was just under 1%. A lot of the charts and graphs we see that show a large decline are typically inflation adjusted charts.  And since we had double-digit inflation in those times, the charts show a double-digit decline despite the numerical value of prices not moving much. I think the chances of a meaningful drop in prices are very low. We might have a flat market with lots of inflation, and I guess you could consider that a decline in prices. But it's highly doubtful you're going to see homes that are going for 1.5M today drop to 1.2 in a few years.

[Jack Seiden]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @David Song:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @David Song:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @David Song:

@Greg R.

Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com

Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.

Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.

The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere. 

Couldn't agree more. There seems to be a fantasy land that some folks are living in where prices never go down, and no matter the conditions - it's always the right time to buy. And you're right, the people who've lost everything from the flips they bought in Q1 are awfully quiet right now. Too much ego/ pride to come on BP forms and expose their foolishness. 

 Foolishness   little harsh dont you think ?   

Apologies if that came off as harsh. My point is that when "know-it-alls" screw up and make a foolish move, they have too much pride and ego to come clean - hence we never hear from them. And I'm not referring to you or anyone specific. 

Obviously not all flippers who purchased in Q1 lost their shirt, but a lot of them did. Don't expect any to come forward with their hands raised admitting it. 

 At least in SF Bay Area, I have seen multiple flips gone wrong, at 1m to 3 m price point. One guy bought a property across the street from one of my rental for 968k, complete gutted the house and listed for 1.8-1.9 m a few months ago. It did not move. I went inside and it looked pretty nice. If he listed in Q1, he can easily sell for 1.8-1.9 m range. Now, he can not get 1.5m. Location, San Mateo, ca.

There are many more such flips that will not be known to average people. Actual investors are feeling pain. That is simply a fact. Denial will not help.

 Some of these flippers are not good economic readers or they're just simply unlucky.

1) We knew from 2021 that Fed going to reverse QE in 2022. They started reserving QE on Jan 2, 2022.
2) Russia attacked Ukraine on Feb 27, 2022. Commodity skyrocketed and 10-year note reached new high a week later.
It's a perfect storm to melt-up the MBS market.

If the flipper bought in Q4 2021 they will see this problem.
Actually flipper in Bay area is losing money also in 2019 when Fed reduces QE.

Reading macro economy is actually more important than reading biggerpocket how much the cost a plumber, as if one can timing the market correctly , they can make good investment and avoid turbulent (not market crash) market. 

If one refinances their house with 2% rate in 2020-2021 ; you are all good for 30 years and this market crash is just a blip in history.

btw if you use statistic from Zillow H.I. There's still no crash, only flat market nationwide. There are huge price reductions where there's oversupply like NV and AZ. Most CF market is weak but nothing crashed. Even Hawaii property is still appreciating higher than Bay Area. lol...

What's actually scary is the latest Fed Chairman seems to be okay for people to lose jobs and unemployment started rising as long as they can kill inflation. 

 When prices drop, our portfolio will shrink in value on paper. Nobody likes that very much. However, I was amazed at how some folks keep refusing to accept the fact and keep denying price drop. Let us be honest. It does not matter what we call it, correction or recession or crash, it is a price drop. 

What will happen next, keep dropping or stabilizing? Anyone’s guess. I start to see more people at open houses the last weekend. But will the market start to turn around? I am afraid not. Sellers are panicking and reduces their prices to move their listing. New listings are priced lower. Rates might keep going up.

Is this good or bad? Actually I like it. The price drop will create some potential buying opportunities for cash buyers. Violent price fluctuations are where money is made. By end of 2022, I think we will have a better judgement on the market condition.

Completely agree. There are several deniers that are not accepting the facts. I also made the same point earlier about not wanting to argue about semantics/ definitions. Market is cooling, prices are dropping - that's a fact. 

I was gonna jump in here but you pretty much every point I wanted to make for me. For those debating semantics of crash vs correction, it does seem some what irrelevant in that if I think something is going to be worth less in the future than it is today why would I buy it as an investment. The housing market is driven by primary homebuyers using 30 year fixed mortgages that have doubled over the last 6 months (the average mortgage rate is up $900) your average consumer simply cannon absorb that therefore prices must come down and it’s already happening (In my market D.C. metro prices declined 7% mom from June to July.) I’m a big car guy and one thing this reminds me of is when car guys get mad at manufacturers for building boring ugly cars not realizing that enthusiast’s make up a tiny franction of the car market, similarly biggerpockets is by definition a housing enthusiast’s website, the only reason I engage so much is i really don’t want to see investors lose their shirt in this market.

[JD Martin]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Paul De Luca:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Can there be a crash if everyone "sees" it coming? If everyone is holding cash waiting for the buying opportunity of a lifetime, is it likely to really be the buying opportunity of a lifetime? Most people did not see the Great Recession coming and it was a real black swan event.

Seems like a lot of folks are in denial and are not going to see it coming. There will be a huge opportunity for those who are prepared. 

I still don't understand why it's so important to you to prove "the deniers" wrong - what's your prize *if* you are right? If your prize is lots of great deals for righteous individuals, why would you want to bring more people to your side to compete against you?

[Brian M Sweeney]

It’s inevitable that the market will retract. I think crash is a over statement but a slow down has already happened, which is completely healthy & normal. Long term everything will be fine as it always is. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @JD Martin:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Paul De Luca:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Can there be a crash if everyone "sees" it coming? If everyone is holding cash waiting for the buying opportunity of a lifetime, is it likely to really be the buying opportunity of a lifetime? Most people did not see the Great Recession coming and it was a real black swan event.

Seems like a lot of folks are in denial and are not going to see it coming. There will be a huge opportunity for those who are prepared. 

I still don't understand why it's so important to you to prove "the deniers" wrong - what's your prize *if* you are right? If your prize is lots of great deals for righteous individuals, why would you want to bring more people to your side to compete against you?

There is enough love to go around. I don't see this as an either/ or scenario. There will be enough deals for us all.  

[Derick Bonsu]

I was gonna jump in here but you pretty much every point I wanted to make for me. For those debating semantics of crash vs correction, it does seem some what irrelevant in that if I think something is going to be worth less in the future than it is today why would I buy it as an investment. The housing market is driven by primary homebuyers using 30 year fixed mortgages that have doubled over the last 6 months (the average mortgage rate is up $900) your average consumer simply cannon absorb that therefore prices must come down and it’s already happening (In my market D.C. metro prices declined 7% mom from June to July.) I’m a big car guy and one thing this reminds me of is when car guys get mad at manufacturers for building boring ugly cars not realizing that enthusiast’s make up a tiny franction of the car market, similarly biggerpockets is by definition a housing enthusiast’s website, the only reason I engage so much is i really don’t want to see investors lose their shirt in this market.

 So what you're saying is they can't build a twin turbo, 6sp manual, rear wheel drive,500 hp wagon that weighs the same as an NA Miata, that can tow like an f150, that you can also take to the tracks? Why not?

[Marcus Auerbach]

Before a real estate market will slow down, let alone correct or even crash you will see inventory go up. Inventory is a leading indicator and a necessary condition for a correction. As long as supply is critically low and demand is high there is no change. As long as we don't have at least 5 months of supply, this debate is pointless.

Anything is possible in this world, but a crash is just not in the data.

Actually things have been heating up again the last couple weeks after a slower July. Inventory is still super low, no additional inventory anywhere to be found, now seller's are clinging on to their 2.5% mortgages making inventory even more rare, meanwhile rents are going up and demand is strong - once a millennial has decided to buy a house and they have a baby on the way, there is no going back.

[Austin F.]

I heard a quote once that went something to the tune of:

"If you think buying in a hot market is hard, imagine buying when everything is crashing down around you"

People with excuses will continue to wait, people who know their markets and trust their numbers will continue to make money regardless of what the market does.

[Joseph Cornwell]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

I do not think that you can have data the proves your market won't crash or correct at some point. We are obviously looking at metrics such as days on market, price reductions, active inventory levels, etc. I think this particular market we are in is hyper local. For example, I am in Cincinnati. Each neighborhood near me can behave drastically different, price points as well. On the residential side, lower price points are actually not moving as fast meaning under 200k. The high demand suburbs are moving in a day or two at higher price points 300-600k. That is what people are looking for, and its a family and emotional motivation, not a logical one. As for investment property, turnkey properties in good areas are moving very fast still. Property that needs a heavy lift are sitting longer as most people are not wanting to take on a 6+ month rehab. Luckily that is my bread and butter so I am finding deals easier to come by right now, than 6-18 months ago. Again, its the micro markets and nuanced. I think it will be this way across the country. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Austin F.:

I heard a quote once that went something to the tune of:

"If you think buying in a hot market is hard, imagine buying when everything is crashing down around you"

People with excuses will continue to wait, people who know their markets and trust their numbers will continue to make money regardless of what the market does.

The idea of a crash shouldn't be an excuse for passing on good deals. It's about knowing when to buy, when to sell, and when to wait. I personally closed on a deal in December, right at the top of the bubble. That said, deals that I consider to be a good were basically nonexistent. This was a one-off, hence I took advantage. I'm seeing a lot of other folks buying in this market marking very poor COC returns, poor cash flow, etc. 

The idea that it's always a good time to buy is what me and others oppose. RE investors have every right to bury their head in the sand and ignore significant economical markers. However, this seems to be a phenomena mainly in RE investing. I've never heard a stock broker say that it's always a good time to buy. Same goes for other investments such as bonds, fine art, jewelry, collectibles, etc. 

[Randall Weatherall]

Quote from @Joshuam R.:

Quote from @Randall Weatherall:

Anyone that says anything in the housing market is 'impossible' probably isn't worth listening to or are very new and get a little too swept up in articles written by people with something to gain.

 Just wanted to say, your logo is pretty badazz.

Thanks, designed it myself while waiting for my brokerage license to come in!

[Carlos Ptriawan]

During the bottom crash of 2009 we saw 30-40 bids in a single house. There're lot of experienced people that able to time the market right.

 
Here's something that most people don't realize why there's a lot of price reduction currently :

There're about 35-40% of buyers in expensive metros (from CA to AZ/TX) in 2020-2021 that's is flipper. As the price gets higher and higher, some folks are overbidding especially in a constrained-supply market. Like 900k house is sold for $1.3,etc,etc. This also triggers more flippers activity. So when MBS rate is melting up those flippers needs to sell their inventory very quickly and that's what brings down the market now.

There were people who is thinking the investor/flipping is only 10 percent, it's way more than that in some markets.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Mike Dymski:

The membership does not disagree with you that housing prices could or are correcting.  They generally don't agree that prices will crash.  Inflation adjusted prices were flat for 40 years from 1970-2010 and then more than doubled in the 10+ years since.  There is a lot of room for prices to normalize some and only a small number of homeowners who did not ride it up in some form.  Most of the people who bought an "overpriced" house in the last two years sold an "overpriced" house too.

Now, what really matters more than everyone's hot air is what we are all doing about it.  “Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.” ― Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Members like @Account Closed @Jay Hinrichs @Greg H.@Tony Kim @Bill B. @Russell Brazil @Greg Scott and many others that have replied to your prior crash posts don't buy properties with a high risk of extended vacancy or long-term value problems.  They buy in growing markets, add value, use prudent debt, have reserves, and sleep well at night.  We are "investors" not "buyers" and this is an investing forum.  Even if you don't agree with many of the very experienced members who have replied to this and your other posts, I recommend focusing on what they are doing in this market...there are free, gold nuggets in their feedback.  From them, I have learned how to succeed through the cycle and am making my largest investment to date right now (in AZ, a market that may "crash").  Why?  Because I can build a one bedroom unit for $175k all-in next door to a 25 year old community that just sold for $490k per unit.

Life is not won in the forums.

I agree, we are investors and this is a critical matter when it comes to investing. There seems to be two camps, one being "buy now, now is always the best time to buy", and the "calculated/ strategic investor who strives to time deals". That is my main focus here. As an investor if I bought 6 months ago for 15% more or waited and saved that 15%, which is a better investment? 

And to be clear, I bought in this bubble. I closed on a deal in January, so I'm not saying that there should be a prohibition against buying. In some cases it makes sense, but I think those are the exception. Like everyone else, you are welcome to form your own opinion and beliefs. If you have a good deal, by all means take advantage.

However, there is nothing wrong with investors timing the market and using real-life economical data to forecast our next move. This topic is fair for discussion as much as any other topic on this forum. 

 There is everything wrong with this line of thinking Greg, and I do mean EVERYTHING. You can NOT time a market "bottom", flat out fact. Those of us who have been in this game for some time, and by some time I mean those of us who measure our career in decades not years, we know this fundamental law as fact. 

I get it, your sitting back dreaming of a '08' 2.0 and all the juicy deals your gonna snag up because have spent the last years thinking and saying "oh man, if I had just known I would'a" but fact is NO you WOULDN'T, because you DIDN'T, and you DIDN'T because when you COULDA you thought it was all bad and stupid, just-like-now....... 

Fact is, in '09' when I WAS investing, most and I mean MOST as in 90%+ were saying I was nuts, to "wait for the bottom". In 2010 as I flipped and was selling in less then 72 hours most said it was a fluke, luck, and I better stop while I was ahead. In 2011 they said I was going to go bankrupt any day once I got caught with a hot potato in hand. It was in 2012, as MEDIA caught traction fo things and the flipping shows started to become popular that people finally started saying "huh, maybe you got something there, but bah bah bah, it's way too risky". And by 2015 it was "oh man, I WOULDA _______ IF-I-KNEW....". 

Yeah, well, it's not that you didn't know, it's that you simply don't have the vision to see past the BS and see the opportunity. That's the reality check of it. 

To compare things today to '08' collapse and say it will happen again is just infantile knowledge, it is, because there is NOTHING of the same/similar setup, nothing, zero, zip, zilch nada. 

Are things stepping back today, heck yeah, and it's AWESOME! It's called CONSOLIDATION, and it's a GREAT sign and signal for INCREASED pricing. See, this is how economics work, I understand the YT of choice may not understand this in between slinging Nord VPN and then yapping how the world is about to reverse direction and spin backwards. 

We had explosive pricing ascension, if you don't understand the catalyst for this, then you will never understand the consolidation we are in, nor the localized adjustments. We are in the second great suburban migration, empowered by virtual working, civil unrest, politics of the day, and just a desire to not like like a Tokyo sub-division. We have inflation the likes of which has NEVER been experienced in human history and guess what, we are just getting through the 2nd wave of this tsunami of cash-expansion and there is more to come, that's how economics actually works, at least 4 waves from this, the 3rd which is just starting now which is mass increase to consumer expense and wage increase, which will facilitate the elevation in asset pricing yet again due to input cost elevation. 

No, there is NO collapse, unless we are no re-labeling that too so consolidation = collapse, slow moving adjustments over weeks/months = collapse, vanilla on a waffle cone = collapse....... 

Feel free to think you can time the bottom, be my guest, I am used to 80%+ sitting the sidelines talking a lot and doing little to nothing, I am happy to be the minority, I have been it for more then 3 decades. Fact is, home ownership is rapidly stepping away from attainment by most. The very fundamentals are well into transition into a renter nation, and once you realize it, it's too late, your going to be crying saying "oh man, if I knew I WOULDA.....". Again.......

[Larry Zucker]

The market is not crashing. The current market is very different from 2008 when inventory flooded the market as people could no longer afford their mortgages. Inventory levels alone tell that picture. In the raleigh, NC market, Year over year (YOY), July 2022 saw the number of listings increase by a modest 1% with a sale-to-list of 101.7% (down from 105%) and median sale prices are up 18% YOY.  While Average days on market have increased 33.3% as interest rates have forced some buyers out of the market, that comparison can be deceiving since the comparison is between 9 days on market last year to 12 days on market this year - historic lows numbers.

The current market changes are the start of balancing and normalization, not a crash. Keep an eye on that inventory. If it skyrockets - which I don't think it will because of solid homeowner equity - then the discussion about a crash may be relevant. But for now, it is not.

@Greg R. - Don't buy into the fear mongers that are promoting a market crash to improve their ratings, likes and reach. You asked for data, and I provided it above. Now rest easy. From an investor perspective, demand for rentals go up whether there is low inventory (people can't find/afford a home) or a market crash (high inventory created by sellers who now need a place to live) so your cash flow numbers should improve in this market either way.

[Nicholas L.]

@James Hamling I agree with most of what's in your post.  Just one question for you - if we were transitioning into a renter nation, wouldn't the homeownership rate be going down instead of being steady / up?  If the US continues to grow - and I hope it does, because I really like it here - won't the absolute number of both homeowners and renters continue to increase?