All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

sounds like a job for a fancy automated guru system to me! ;)

Joshua Dorkin

socal bp summit sounds good to me too! we can also have it (at or) near disneyland - plenty convention space there like where Brandon Turner recently did his due diligence prospecting for the socal market area! :)

sounds like this property was purchased a while ago... the assessed value is typically (these days as far as i have noticed) given the sold price. i'm not sure how assessed value was arrived back in the past (like, the 90's, 80's, etc).

quickest way to get to a comp range (fmv - fair market value) would be to call an active agent in that area and ask for a comp done on that property. assuming you don't have an agent and will be using one, you can let them know your interest in purchase and wanted to get a comp. IF you wanted to avoid using an agent, the NEXT quickest way is to go to redfin, enter the address, and when the listing comes up do a "price this house" to see what their comp comes up with.

zillow's z-estimate methodology for arriving at value is not the same as an agent comp (nor redfin's for that matter)... eppraisal i believe is some statistical automated way that can be inaccurate.

do a search on "determining arv" or "finding comps" in BP if you want to see some posts on how to come up w/value for yourself. there's a lot that has already been written that you can learn a lot from.

ya... 0 response rate doesn't sound normal. more details about how this was done would be helpful to troubleshoot the lack of response.

Hi James Vermillion (that's odd, the "at sign" from your name doesn't show - oh well) and all readers of BP...

REI IN A BOX?
IN HINDSIGHT, I would have taken a different route to my REI education. HOWEVER, I did learn a lot from @j. scott scheel (hey, Joshua Dorkin, is the mention function a li'l buggy? i can't hail j scott scheel - a member here) thru his commercial RE seminars. he was fair and not so hype-y, when you compare him to the guru bunch, in his promotion of courses.

My reason for going to seminar world way back when was for similar reasons others did/do: i wanted to hit the ground running with the "proper" guidelines for evaluating property. i was hoping for a road map... a business plan in a box. i think this is similar to those who look for a training coach to get fit. no one needs a coach or trainer to lose weight, get healthy, etc. especially when you're the one doing all the work to get to that physical fitness you seek.

HINDSIGHT: 20/20
The reality of it is what I originally had hoped to learn in 5 days, I eventually came to understand in about 30-45 days of daily doing.

I coulda, shoulda, woulda spent the 5 days reading BP forums, listening to podcasts, and selected a few books from amazon for my foundation material.

Even the tools that are available today (and back then) aren't any good until you really understand the fundamentals. THEN, the tools are good for saving time - assuming they are working properly. The allure of guru's and their systems is the hope to follow a streamlined system ... the hope for the quickest path to riches.

WHO RIPPED WHOM OFF?
Maybe it's more an ethical question or is it a business question(?)... is it truly a waste of money when someone willingly pays for whatever package/system/house? :)

I think the value is best determined after proper DD (due diligence)! Just like buying a car or a house or a product/service, it's wise to take time to do the research before spending a large sum of $ towards your desired outcome. BUT if you choose to go with your gut, and you spent 20k for what you only later EVENTUALLY find out that you could have spent 20days reading BP, then NO ONE ripped you off. This is where we need to exercise some self-responsibility. come on, no one told you that they were the only and best way to making money... and even if they did, why would you choose to believe them? again, your personal choice. but..but.. they told me that I can make millions investing in commercial and with their guidance... sure, of course they did... and of course they're the best and only place to go to...

In the land of opportunity and we, the people, who know there are so many choices, maybe we need to exercise some critical thinking. I admit that I was enamored by the presentation and then the herd mentality guidance of (1 + guru + 20k = success) simplistic formula. only after eventual a$$ backwards DD and some critical thinking after the mass hypnosis did I realize other (better) paths of learning what I learned.

In most cases, including mine, I ripped myself off... I sold myself, just like most everyone who chose the guru/package/seminar did. I chose the illusion of the "shortcut" (that's what i believed, they didn't tell me it was a shortcut).

IF I ONLY KNEW THEN WHAT I KNOW NOW

ya, the best way to get to the above subtitle is by doing your dd before investing in anything.

i certainly learned the more expensive way (in time and money). was it worth it? I have nothing to compare it to... i have no what-if path to contrast. I've learned to look before i leap - where it deals with parting from a lump sum at least! the point is that I've learned the lesson of DD... and sure, tuition fees vary from person to person for that lesson. but if it's not this lesson you pay the price, there's a lotta other lessons that people will eventually pay "the price" for. ;)

im not sure i understand .. why would u consider buying the course after all the opinions n mention of this course being non-compliant with the law?

What's the duration of a cycle?

looking at this chart, it looks like ~5yrs (for a boom at least)

find other charts here

If you guys haven't seen or read about the growing bubble, this is a great read (and vid reference) on the actual experience in the so cal market (san diego in this vid) - Jim the Realtor is a great watch :)

Just an FYI, you can find some helpful info on CalculatedRisks's blog site. Here's the link to the article about the growing hype

Given the heavily manipulated factors in the market, I'm not sure how safe it is to flip ... in so cal at least. We're dealing with artificially uptrending prices thanks to low inventory, low interest rates, high demand (hedgefund money, typical and growing re investors, and the conventional home buyer). Meanwhile the job market has been declining to flat. That said, (I heard this from a norris group talk recently) if trends continue to where new construction begins to pencil, the economy can turn around. The problem will be that the already inflated market will not have much foundation to stand on. I've been looking at some of the numbers in the area, and if trends continue to the 2005-7 days, I'm not sure how most hh income will be able to support such high pricing.

Are you guys continuing to flip in this uncertain market - well, at least in the LA / SO CAL area? What's the ideal strategy/ies to have in an uptrending (bubble) market? The only position I see as "smart" might be (2 actually): 1. buy/flip early in the trend (but early is relative to what the cycle will be); and 2. be the enabler of purchasing r/e (as an agent/broker, lender, etc. etc).

How are you approaching the current and uptrending market?

Brandon Turner

perhaps "buy a home" implies personal use and "buy a house" is along the lines of investment? hmmm.. but that wouldn't explain the lack of activity of search during the bubble for "buy a home" though.

too bad google can't chime in on this data trend!

Hi Jeremy Wells... regardless of opinions, have you tried this on any properties in a more populated area to help validate results?

I enjoy data geeking as much as the next number cruncher. would be curious to see how your results compare to past sold. for example, have you tried taking a property that sold in december, and from that input props to run your model and see how close it matched against the actual sold price for that subject property sold in december?

have you made any progress or updates since your v1?

thanks for sharing!