The last talk I heard was where he was talking about the market rising til new construction pencils...
THAT, I can imagine, is what everyone (the govt and their keeping rates low) wants to happen... he followed this point by saying that in after every turnaround in new construction, the economy turns around also.
while i do not recall any specific %'s in appreciation, he did talk about how he expects the market to continue to the point where new construction kicks in and gains momentum. Once the economy turns around, the bubble is definitely live (and the clock ticking).
THAT said, i'm still baffled (and concerned) that despite a boom in new construction and bubble 2.0 (at least in cali), how does the lack of employment factor into this growing/pending bubble?
if it's true that the economy mirrors the uptrending new construction, I infer that the majority of our job market must be closely tied to housing manufacturing and service markets. hmmmm... more data is needed to qualify this assumption as well as help figure and further guesstimate how employment influences and is influenced in such a trend.
so here's a question for the more seasoned investors (maybe specifically in the socal market, but also to those outside the market)... what marker do you figure new construction pencils? I'm assuming that might be at the $120/sf marker and not the replacement value of $80/sf... right? that said, i'm not sure if those numbers 120 (where new construction pencils) and 80 the replacement cost value is used for general nationwide calculations or that's just from what i've heard once upon a time from somewhere in my mind that i recall being from an authoritative source. :)
anyone w/more experience care to chime in?
@j scott, Will Barnard, Karen Margrave... hmmm my (at) mentions don't seem to be working properly right now..