How accurate are AirDNA estimates & calculators for STR's?

[AJ Wong]

Not a day goes by when a vacation rental investor does not ask: "How accurate are AirDNA rentalizer estimates and projections for short term vacation rentals?" 

The simple answer is highly accurate..A recent CBRE report on the accuracy of AirDNA date found it to be 97.5% accurate in reporting active supply of vacation rentals. That same report found data to be 96.2% accurate. 

Here on the Oregon Coast, I would attest to that accuracy based on the review of hundreds of financial statements for active oregon coast vacation rentals and the performance of nearly two dozen STR investors and operators we've helped acquire properties within the past three years.

In fact, AirDNA is so accurate that many lenders will now accept a AirDNA estimate (for non-declining markets) as evidence of sufficient qualifying income on many DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans and mortgages. That's a good example of a 'healthy' mortgage market albeit fairly astonishing that banks would consider the revenue data accurate and consistent enough to lend on. For lenders/banks, quality vacation rentals are clearly a unique and reliably performing asset class..

For investment properties these lenders typically require a minimum 20-25% down payment but since there is higher gross revenue, the investor can often qualify for a higher loan amount. Most allow gifted funds for the down payment as well as seller concessions of 2%. The majority of STR properties in Oregon fall within the loan limits of up to $2-3M depending on the property type. Loan programs that utilize AirDNA income projections to qualify can also be utilized for cash out refinances (if not currently operated as an AirBNB) although some lenders have a maximum cash in hand of $500k-$1M typically at a lower loan to Value of 65-75% for investment property vacation rentals.

I advise clients not to solely rely on AirDNA data for performance analysis as there can be some variation based on amenities such as hot tubs, premium decor and design and general operational excellence. Operators that are open and able to offer combined usages for slower seasons, such as mid term discounted extended stay rates in the winter, can improve lower estimated production in the off-seasons. 

It is good practice in assessing STR potential and performance by combining personal research and rental experiences (rates and dates) with at least one local reputable Property Management company rental revenue estimate.

Is AirDNA accurate in your area? 

[Ryan Moyer]

If I pull up my market in AirDNA, and scroll down in the comps to find my actual house, the revenue it says I'm making is not very accurate compared to the revenue I'm actually making.  On all of my properties.

[John Underwood]

I've heard many people say the same as Ryan, that Airdna has been way off.

I recommend people take a few minutes and manually check their competition to get the most accurate analysis. 

[Shannon Strickland]

John Bianchi has a very helpful free course on YouTube that taught me how to identify good data amid bad data. I can't recommend his content enough.

[Carleen Murone]

My experience in SWFL, based on comparing occupancy rates the calculators report, with actual operators and STR property managers is that the nightly rates are pretty accurate but the actual % occupancy is not. This is because many fill last minute rentals in downtimes with private rentals or through FaceBook groups, etc, which aren't showing up in the reports. I believe the harder you work to keep it occupied the more occupied it will be.

[Sarah Kensinger]

So long as most of the bookings come from VRBO or Airbnb the data is pretty close! But for those listed on other sites as well as Airbnb and VRBO it can be a little off. I have found that those with the proper knowledge in how the software works, and of course know how to use the software, would agree with your post, including myself! 

[Joseph Chiofalo]

Hi AJ, 

AirDNA data is a great reference for investors / buyers to analyze how a property performs. 

Its real-time data, tailored for short-term rentals, offers an accurate assessment of a property’s income potential.  The data on the report surpasses the traditional 1004 appraisal.  

DSCR / Investor loans, focus on the property's income potential rather than the borrower's personal income. Lenders and borrowers can benefit significantly using the detailed and market-specific data that AirDNA provides to make an informed decision on a property.

[Andrew Steffens]

It can be very accurate in areas with a lot of mostly uniform properties.  If you run a 3/2 pool home in Largo, FL - It will almost always be accurate as I can check the numbers against properties I manage.  If you have a unique property somewhere with less comps, it will likely be useless in my experience.

[Calvin Baughman]

Quote from @AJ Wong:

Not a day goes by when a vacation rental investor does not ask: "How accurate are AirDNA rentalizer estimates and projections for short term vacation rentals?" 

The simple answer is highly accurate..A recent CBRE report on the accuracy of AirDNA date found it to be 97.5% accurate in reporting active supply of vacation rentals. That same report found data to be 96.2% accurate. 

Here on the Oregon Coast, I would attest to that accuracy based on the review of hundreds of financial statements for active oregon coast vacation rentals and the performance of nearly two dozen STR investors and operators we've helped acquire properties within the past three years.

In fact, AirDNA is so accurate that many lenders will now accept a AirDNA estimate (for non-declining markets) as evidence of sufficient qualifying income on many DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans and mortgages. That's a good example of a 'healthy' mortgage market albeit fairly astonishing that banks would consider the revenue data accurate and consistent enough to lend on. For lenders/banks, quality vacation rentals are clearly a unique and reliably performing asset class..

For investment properties these lenders typically require a minimum 20-25% down payment but since there is higher gross revenue, the investor can often qualify for a higher loan amount. Most allow gifted funds for the down payment as well as seller concessions of 2%. The majority of STR properties in Oregon fall within the loan limits of up to $2-3M depending on the property type. Loan programs that utilize AirDNA income projections to qualify can also be utilized for cash out refinances (if not currently operated as an AirBNB) although some lenders have a maximum cash in hand of $500k-$1M typically at a lower loan to Value of 65-75% for investment property vacation rentals.

I advise clients not to solely rely on AirDNA data for performance analysis as there can be some variation based on amenities such as hot tubs, premium decor and design and general operational excellence. Operators that are open and able to offer combined usages for slower seasons, such as mid term discounted extended stay rates in the winter, can improve lower estimated production in the off-seasons. 

It is good practice in assessing STR potential and performance by combining personal research and rental experiences (rates and dates) with at least one local reputable Property Management company rental revenue estimate.

Is AirDNA accurate in your area? 

 I feel it's quite accurate, even if it doesn't have 100% reliability. You can't base all your work on AirDNA, but it's a great tool for making parallels and getting estimates with a percentage margin of error.

[Calvin Baughman]

Quote from @John Underwood:

I've heard many people say the same as Ryan, that Airdna has been way off.

I recommend people take a few minutes and manually check their competition to get the most accurate analysis. 

 It's the ideal thing to do if you need a very precise analysis, but I think AirDNA is still a nice tool to make parallels with a larger margin of error, even if you don't know much about marketing or any other more complex tools!

[Craig Jones]

I don't rely on it.  Many of the "comps" in my market are not really comps.  Lots of properties that are 2nd homes, self-managed by owners who are just hoping to make a few extra bucks, not running a serious business.  Substantial owner use during peak periods.  Also, dozens of properties that have been vacation rentals for 40+ years and not listed on AirBnB or VRBO.  Still bookable only via local property managers.

[Jeffrey N beasley]

Quote from @AJ Wong:

Not a day goes by when a vacation rental investor does not ask: "How accurate are AirDNA rentalizer estimates and projections for short term vacation rentals?" 

The simple answer is highly accurate..A recent CBRE report on the accuracy of AirDNA date found it to be 97.5% accurate in reporting active supply of vacation rentals. That same report found data to be 96.2% accurate. 

Here on the Oregon Coast, I would attest to that accuracy based on the review of hundreds of financial statements for active oregon coast vacation rentals and the performance of nearly two dozen STR investors and operators we've helped acquire properties within the past three years.

In fact, AirDNA is so accurate that many lenders will now accept a AirDNA estimate (for non-declining markets) as evidence of sufficient qualifying income on many DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans and mortgages. That's a good example of a 'healthy' mortgage market albeit fairly astonishing that banks would consider the revenue data accurate and consistent enough to lend on. For lenders/banks, quality vacation rentals are clearly a unique and reliably performing asset class..

For investment properties these lenders typically require a minimum 20-25% down payment but since there is higher gross revenue, the investor can often qualify for a higher loan amount. Most allow gifted funds for the down payment as well as seller concessions of 2%. The majority of STR properties in Oregon fall within the loan limits of up to $2-3M depending on the property type. Loan programs that utilize AirDNA income projections to qualify can also be utilized for cash out refinances (if not currently operated as an AirBNB) although some lenders have a maximum cash in hand of $500k-$1M typically at a lower loan to Value of 65-75% for investment property vacation rentals.

I advise clients not to solely rely on AirDNA data for performance analysis as there can be some variation based on amenities such as hot tubs, premium decor and design and general operational excellence. Operators that are open and able to offer combined usages for slower seasons, such as mid term discounted extended stay rates in the winter, can improve lower estimated production in the off-seasons. 

It is good practice in assessing STR potential and performance by combining personal research and rental experiences (rates and dates) with at least one local reputable Property Management company rental revenue estimate.

Is AirDNA accurate in your area? 

Is this an ad?

[Collin H.]

Airdna is about as accurate as CarFax.

[Chris Watson]

I would say AirDNA is accurate as much as a weatherman.  On my own properties they are 50% accurate and off by over 50% on others. I contend the more people push for direct bookings the harder for AirDNA to account for it and as said above they have no way to account for uniqueness (location, amenities, build). So my 5 bedroom new construction on top of the mountain with phenomenal views is lumped in with a 30 yr old 5 bedroom 1/4 mile away in the valley surrounded by trees.  

[Mya Toohey]

I am agent and host in the Largo/Clearwater/Tampa area.  I found that when I used AirDNA that my numbers were better than the projected.  You have to market the property on social media sites and direct booking helps.  I used Hostaway and it raised my bookings by 30% as well.

[KiKi Wood]

I agree with what is said above! I have found it to be great for estimates for clients, but to really get accurate data you have to dive into the competition's numbers. I really do like AirDNA though, I just don't trust it blindly! :)

[Brian Barch]

I believe there is value in these online, in the sense that I would use them as one tool and not ignore them.  However, When I punch in my rental some of them are somewhat close, and some wildly off.  Rabbu has my market at about 50% of what it should be for instance.

But I think between using all the tools, talking to STR friendly realtors, the enemy method, etc.....one can get fairly close

[Ryan Thoma]

AJ, any input on the daily rates in AirDNA? I'm performing an analysis right now and gathering data on top-performing properties I admire in the area. One issue... The daily rates AirDNA posts are different from what's on Airbnb/Vrbo.

For example, my neighbor's listing. AirDNA claims they have a daily rate of around $555. However, on Vrbo or Airbnb the property is listed at around $245 per night. Have you run into that discrepancy? Am I missing something?

[AJ Wong]

Quote from @Ryan Thoma:

AJ, any input on the daily rates in AirDNA? I'm performing an analysis right now and gathering data on top-performing properties I admire in the area. One issue... The daily rates AirDNA posts are different from what's on Airbnb/Vrbo.

For example, my neighbor's listing. AirDNA claims they have a daily rate of around $555. However, on Vrbo or Airbnb the property is listed at around $245 per night. Have you run into that discrepancy? Am I missing something?

Yes especially if privately managed it won’t reflect.  

[Carleen Murone]

Quote from @AJ Wong:

Quote from @Ryan Thoma:

AJ, any input on the daily rates in AirDNA? I'm performing an analysis right now and gathering data on top-performing properties I admire in the area. One issue... The daily rates AirDNA posts are different from what's on Airbnb/Vrbo.

For example, my neighbor's listing. AirDNA claims they have a daily rate of around $555. However, on Vrbo or Airbnb the property is listed at around $245 per night. Have you run into that discrepancy? Am I missing something?

Yes especially if privately managed it won’t reflect.  

 Does the market have significant seasonality?  For example here in SWFL this is our slowest month so the nightly rates right now are much lower than the high season.  The $555 might be an average?

[Adrian Clapp]

AirDNA data does not account for "discounting" by hosts.  In over-saturated areas like Scottsdale, hosts are often asked by guests to discount their nightly rates (especially for extended stays) and many hosts accept the discounted rates because they know that if they deny the request, the guest will simply book with a different host that will extend a discount.  If AirDNA sees a property is "booked", it just takes the number of dates booked and uses the list rate.  I confirmed this issue with AirDNA data with the AirDNA team at their 2023 BPCon booth.