While I agree with 2 and 4, I respectfully disagree with 1, 3 and 5. For background I have vacationed in the Smokies since 1983 and own 6 currently in the Smokies. I have built and sold 3 others and fixed flipped 1. I have owned iand self managed all for 8 years.
As for point 1, I agree there is a higher demand for Gatlinburg, but it isn't that high to be called ground zero. Actually most potential guests ask how far to Dollywood and how far to hiking (arguably Gatlinburg could win the hiking). The majority of our cabins are in Jones Cove area and they have always crushed it. I contend while certain percentage of visitors want the Gatlinburg/PF experience there are a greater amount wanting an uncluttered view with easy access to these cities. This is why Wears Valley is a popular request (I don't own there). I do have a log one in Townsend but it is really a different market.
3. I have 3 log cabins and 3 modern/contemporary designs. Right now, and for 8 years, the contemporary outperform log. There are a large percentage of guests not wanting a log cabin. I do believe there is an overbuild of certain modern and contemporary designs. If you scroll through zillow you will quickly see multiples of these designs. I believe these are the ones you are referring to. I built my first modern 7 years ago and like you agree that some (not all) moderns will age out. Then again we thought that about A-frames the past 30 years and now they are making a resurgence. If you go modern make sure it is unique.The interesting part of modern is a large percentage of renters come from demographics with different cultural backgrounds than our family's. We enjoy that, but like any business know your customer base.
5. New construction is not "always the most expensive way to go." A significant amount of my networth was made through building in the Smokies. I can build cheaper than I could replace but there is a time and stress factor to consider. There are major warnings for people looking to build. There are some very shady builders still in the area. Google the builder's legal name and see what comes up. One contractor was at the planning dept the other day who just got out of federal prison earlier this year. Not all lots are cost efficient to build on. Make sure your plans are engineered from someone reputable (don't trust the builder's guy unless you can verify their trustworthiness). Costs will always go over budget. I would say generally, buying already built is cheaper on the mind, stress and time. If you don't have the additional mental bandwidth, can't deal with stress in healthful way or do not have much time to commit atleast 14 months of focus then do not build. If built right you could get some significant equity. As for buying already built I agree there are some great opportunities, but do your due diligence.
For me personally I will stay out of the city limits for STRs. There are some areas near Gatlinburg I would consider, but cities are just a large HOA which I do not trust over the longterm. Lastly, we all must remember we are close to 20 million visitors to the area (13M to GSMNP) every year and most owners just need 60 to 80 families to stay at their STR to have a successful year.
.