All Forum Posts by: Chris Watson

Quote from @Collin Hays:

Quote from @Chris Watson:

Just a few additional details to accompany the fuzzy math data.  The National Park Service changed their statistical data method for 2024 and when they retroactively applied it to 2023 for modeling purposes the model showed 2023 numbers would have been decreased by 8% under the 2024 model (source Knoxnews.com Jan 18, 2025). When you even dig deeper into the numbers by areas of entry to the park by month for 2024 you will see the Hurricane Helene impacted greatly numbers but to areas outside Sevier/Blount County.  When you peel back and try to see the real numbers for 2024 under using the previous guest tracking method (2023 method) you will see only a few percentage point drop in visitors to the Sevier/Blount County areas of the GSMNP.  

I’ve never fully trusted NPS numbers. State, county, and city sales tax receipts don’t lie.  And traffic is down in the Smokies significantly.  

 I agree that tax receipts don't lie.  The question is how much is lower volume (nights booked) vs lower pricing.  I know that the lodging pricing has decreased, leading to lower lodging tax numbers.  Unfortunately, TNTAP and Sevier County Trustee do not capture the number of nights rented when taxes are remitted.  I believe the pullback might be in two categories. The first category is the percentage of people not traveling due to socio-economic issues. The second category is the percentage of people traveling but with reduced spending when traveling (i.e., cheaper cabin, cooking at the cabin vs eating out, less attendance at paid attractions).  Based on the data I currently see, it suggests the second category is larger than the first.  June 14 to Aug 14 will truly show the state of the market in the Smokies.  With the booking window reducing so much in 2025, the jury is still out on what it will be for 2025.  I expect it will only be down 10% or less for 2025, but if people are operating businesses on thin margins, this will be enough to cause economic disaster for them.

Just a few additional details to accompany the fuzzy math data.  The National Park Service changed their statistical data method for 2024 and when they retroactively applied it to 2023 for modeling purposes the model showed 2023 numbers would have been decreased by 8% under the 2024 model (source Knoxnews.com Jan 18, 2025). When you even dig deeper into the numbers by areas of entry to the park by month for 2024 you will see the Hurricane Helene impacted greatly numbers but to areas outside Sevier/Blount County.  When you peel back and try to see the real numbers for 2024 under using the previous guest tracking method (2023 method) you will see only a few percentage point drop in visitors to the Sevier/Blount County areas of the GSMNP.  

I expect this will work for more metro areas, but I expect the conversion rate to be less than 2% of guests.  Some people never really care about prices and just buy/book and Airbnb will focus on this customer profile.  I do see it not ending well in the sense of being like Allegiant Airlines Sunseeker Resort. This will drain resources (manpower/money) from Airbnb core hosting and eventually after 3 or 4 quarters of losses they will still offer it but with bare minimum resources/support and operate like Viator.  What will be interesting is when people offering on-site services start asking/demanding owners give early access to provide a service on property. What happens when owners/hosts start asking for proof of insurance and/or liability waivers from service providers? Off-site services will have minimal impact on hosts.

Quote from @Ty Brady:

In theory, it's great.  In real life, the connection is bad, the software is ok at best and the support is nonexistent.  I'm using it, but it drives me crazy.  Does anyone know of any good alternatives?

I was setting up some ubiquiti products (same as StayFi is using) for something else and I ran across on reddit how people program the same products and set them up at there properties (no monthly fees).  Programming seemed easy as people have published step by step guides.  The one thing is you need a dedicated computer (aka server) to collect the data.  It could be at the property or remotely somewhere else.  After seeing Stayfi's cost I would go to setting it up myself.

Vacassa has alot of fees which makes historical data look great. I would request the realtor for a detailed breakdown with rents, cleaning fees and other fees.  The good news is every Vacassa managed property I have looked at is bringing in way under its potential due to Vascassa's poor management..  

Do you know if anyone who is API integrated received this email?  

For my Smokys properties I do not have limits or wifi thermostats. For my Florida beach properties it is ranged 68 to 78.

I have a large percentage of guests in the last three months comparing VRBO vs Airbnb pricing and they detest the large fee.  On one booking the Airbnb fee was $1,700.  What helps drive people to my direct booking site is people not happy with the outrageous Airbnb/Vrbo fee and then searching for a cheaper option.  I just did it myself for a place in Greece this summer for a family vacation saving almost 20% by booking direct. Since I prefer direct bookings I will keep the fee displayed. The mind shift needed for owners is that Airbnb and VRBO is no longer just a booking platform, but an advertisement to drive people to your direct booking website to become a first time guest.

We offer cable or Directv Stream packages (unlimited number of TVs streaming at one location/IP address) depending on the location/cable availability.  I would recommend people look at their nightly price point and target audience.  If I paid $150 or more a night I expect not to have to log in to my own accounts, and I expect a reliable TV service provided (I actually hate logging into apps myself).  I would probably ding on value for not providing reasonable access to college football (all of my rentals are in SEC territory). Eight of my nine rentals fall into this nightly rate category year-round.  I do have guests who still want to use their Netflix/Hulu/Disney+ apps even when I offer the top-of-the-line DirecTV Stream packages.  Therefore, I have gone to using Firesticks on all of my DirecTV Stream setups with instructions on how to access everything (Roku guest mode will not work for what I want to accomplish).

I had cost segs done on all my properties last year.  Due to them being in two primary locations the price was economical including the site visit.  Why all? 

1. It is cheaper to do all at once.

2. Just because it was done this past year doesn't mean I have to utilize it right away.

3. It gives my CPA several options when developing my tax filing strategy for each year depending on the current tax law environment.

4. I plan my tax strategy for +3 yrs out.  No need to worry about paying taxes if you plan properly. 

5. It also relieves the pressure to find "this year's" write off. I make acquisition or developments based on fundamentals not "needed write off/depreciation".