All Forum Posts by: Chris Gawlik

@Steve Morris  2009-2011 is when things were stabilizing from 2007-2008 crisis. What kind of example is that? I can't really tell if your joking or not. What is your true opinion about things to come? Im thinking your the permabull that thinks the market will climb forever. Start looking at the actual data instead of running your real estate brokerage. Better get good at short sales Steve. 

These kinds of people touted the greatest real estate market of all time back in 2007-2008 as well. You better buy now before you get priced out of the market. Right before it collapsed.  

This is what I mean. Your about to fall off a cliff. Also this is the 3rd time you poked at me about buying what I had at a discount. Getting old brother. Come up with some new material. This article below was written back in March. Things have gotten worse since then.   

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/financial-crisis-2008-coronavirus-donald-trump-economy-stocks-a9392881.html

If your thinking of starting to flip fixer uppers, buying your first buy and hold, or your just starting out in RE investment. It would be best to put those plans on hold for at least a few months. Just wait and see what happens with the economy. This is a warning to all, but especially younger newer investors with no experience. I went into a detail in a previous post about why I think this a couple weeks ago, and its becoming more and more relevant as time goes on. Those who are still in limbo as to weather this global pandemic will have an long term impact on the US economy, as well as the housing market in general, need to face reality and plan accordingly. Again this is just my opinion and everyone will have there own plans and investment strategies. To tell you the truth, its really hard to believe that there are still people, to put it bluntly multimillionaire RE investors who think that covid will have no impact on the US economy and housing market. Read my post about the US economy below. The market is crashing, I am not just saying this, I have taken action and sold my primary home and am selling my investment properties to get prepared for whats coming. You can read about this below as well. I am writing this post not to gloat or get attention from readers. I am writing this post to WARN YOU. DON'T FOLLOW THE MASSES ON WALL STREET, THERE ABOUT TO RUN STRAIGHT OFF A CLIFF. THE BULLS HAVE HAD THERE TIME AND ITS OVER. THE TIME OF THE BEARS HAS COME. GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN.  

people-think-were-nuts

the-us-economy-will-recover-quickly-think-again

@Juan Pardo I don't think that link is working I tried to fix it, but I couldn't. You can search for that topic on google and find it though. Its an interesting article thanks Juan.

banks are starting to tighten up quite a bit. The banks are going to be very careful who they lend to in the coming months. Underwriting is a pain in the butt for buyers. Its happening right now. I think this is going to get worse in the coming months just my opinion. With the unemployment and low consumer confidence, credit scores are going to take a hit. I don't think this low inventory issue is going to last. I think your going to start seeing more and more inventory especially during the slower buying season coming. All of this combined will start to cause a selling panic in the market and prices will start to correct. There is also a mass  exodus from cities ATM. Its happening all over the country. So the market is hot in the suburbs right now, but Covid has caused many people who were going to list there property put the sale on hold, but they still plan on selling soon. This combination of things working all at once is going to cause a storm. Just my opinion again, but be prepared for a big correction in the next year or so.   

@Juan Pardo I agree with you Juan. If you can hold off for a few months it would be best to see what happens. I also just followed buffett and purchased some gold and silver. Along with a few other mining stocks. I will keep buying gold for a few months to hedge against the falling price of the dollar and inflation. I do listen to peter schiff and I know he is always touting gold, but buffett betting against the US dollar should have had much more attention from the media. There barley spoke about it. I know some would say that he kept his other positions or its not much of his wealth, but Warren has always had nothing good to say about gold. Then suddenly he flips the switch and buys 500 million dollars worth. What we don't know is how much more he ha privately purchased. You know the guy has been planning this for a while and what he does not report to the SEC. Its a statement. Buy some gold.  

@Juan Pardo yea this is far from over. As you know from the post I am more of a permabear but some of the bulls are starting to feel the sqeeze. If this starts to turn bad they will become very quite. As for me if I am wrong and not much happens with the RE market, I will gladly admit I was wrong and squandered my chances of becoming a multi millionaire. haha.  

The US economy is in deep trouble again

Bad, bad, and more bad news is flowing from the economy. No one knows what will happen. This is an unprecedented time in our history of our nation and the world. Now the extra unemployment relief is starting to dry up in many states. Even though Trump signed an executive order, 20 million unemployed are not getting the extra money. This means there income is basically cut in half. This is getting a bit harder then we thought. There going to need more stimulus to get the country out of a pretty tough recession. Not sure how much more they can pump in, but congress won't even be back in session until Sep 7th. So unless they come up with some emergency meeting, or Trump pulls another unconstitutional exec order, looks like people will be on there own for a while. This is going to have a pretty bad impact on the economy. 

Looks like this post has just about come to an end. Thanks for all your comments and views. I tried to look at things from other peoples perspectives as well. We also had some really deep economic insight. If we would have added some alcohol and a bar there may have also been a couple fist fights, so yea.... good stuff. Good luck with your investments. Chris Gawlik.  

@James Hamling I understand you and Walter are battling it out here, and you guys have way more experience with the economic stuff, but you act like covid is a total hoax. Its still really bad illness. Its killing people, and even if you live through it, many people will have long term health problems from this illness. A 30 year old friend of mine just went down for a liver biopsy. He had covid and it damaged his liver. He was in perfect health. Not overweight exercised and eats healthy. He could not move for 3 days and pissed himself a few times to put it bluntly. Its not a good idea to give people a false sense of security about this illness. You don't know if you are one of unlucky ones that suffer some really serious symptoms. BE CAREFUL.   

I talked about this in a previous post. Why is it when I take my nightly walks, people will cross the street to keep there distance. I will do the same. Because there scarred. Some are not, but I would say the 7 out of 10 even younger people are keeping there distance. This is just a simple common sense example, but what do you think that means for local brick and mortar businesses and even the big box stores. 7 out of 10 people are not going into the ice cream shop right now to get a scoop. There not going to get a burger or burrito. There not clothes shopping like they were. How can this have no effect at all. In 2006-2007 there were permabulls also. I read many articles back then and many of my friends bought there first homes. They all lost them and it took them years to recover. So answer this James. Will it ever happen? Will the housing market go up forever? What do you think could make the housing market correct? The way you talk the markets will never correct. It doesn't make sense, there has to be a downturn at some point in the future if not now then what and when in your mind? Hyper inflation, A world war, a terrorist attack. what?