All Forum Posts by: Chris Gawlik

Some people think deflation is coming. Its kind of a battle between inflation and deflation opinions. Both sides agree we are in a huge bubble, but what happens after it pops is the question. Watch this vid.

SUPER BUBBLE

@James Hamling Pretty simple to understand supply and demand. Also Minnesota is not the US. Its one state. We can go back and forth forever, but only time will tell. The amount of experience you have, how rich and powerful you are, and how much money you have is not going to change what happens with the US economy.

Home prices up 8% as supply fell 22%

@James Hamling You quoted a movie? That alone proves your full of it. I knew you had nothing James. Everyone on this post knows your full of it now. You could not even give me one name besides Michael Burry. 

Burry's scion takes a bath with recent covid purchases

That's all you got James pretty disappointing. Your bull Burry just lost his ***. You quoted math like you actually used this math yourself to look at data and make decisions. Calling everyone out to buy there properties like there stock options. Ill give you names. 

Peter Schiff called the last one and is warning others again. Listen to his podcast. He will tell you we are in a lose lose. Read this as well. 

Here comes the real recession 

Hey James at least I cite others opinions who agree we could be in trouble. You write long drawn out posts about how GOOD you are at MATH and cite nothing but your rhetoric which doesn't mean anything to me. Not sure what others think about your posts, but now I know you have nothing but your superficial false narrative. Nothing to backup your story or your opinion. You lost your credibility James. I thought you would at least give me some data to back up your story, but NOTHING.   

@James Hamling You said those who cited it with pinpoint accuracy. Who are they. Show me what math they used. Because those who called the last crash are calling it out again. There are economist and fund managers who called this last crash. They called the last economic down turn and they are warning people again. Tell me who called the last crash, who is not warning people about whats coming.

Your calling everyone out. Send me some names so I can look them up. I want to know the so called mathematicians / great economist who cited and called the last crash with MATH. Here is what your going to say. Its not worth my time to look it up. Do you want to know why. Because your full of it. You can't and you won't give me any names. Because there are none. Prove me wrong James. 

@Kate J. Not everyone has fannie freddie loan. So you have a choice of adding missed payments ( not saying that you missed any ) to the back end of your loan. Those with private loans will be asked to pay all the missed payments right away. They will not get a choice. Pay all missed payments now or bank will foreclose. 

Jump in Early Stage Delinquencies

This article was written mid July, but I believe there is still so much at play here that will keep things headed down the path of low consumer confidence, unemployment, and company bankruptcies. 

Companies filing bankruptcy

Some of these problems alone will cause some major problems with the economy. Added to these problems are small business' closing, kids not going to school, no children sports being played, not as many family gatherings, not as many people eating out, hotel stays, travel, and the list goes on and on. These are small everyday things that we used to take for granted, but I think these things will have a major impact on the economy. Things are being felt worldwide as well. This will have an impact on the entire world. Supply chains are becoming more of a problem worldwide as well. 

Things may be hard to get soon

Food supply chains breaking down

@James Hamling Sometimes math does not cover issues that you can't see, or can't predict, but data is showing very troubling signs ahead. 

GDP worst drop in history EVER

@Alec Burton @Miguel Castro @Juan Pardo Thanks for joining my cause boys. So I'm not the only one battling the all mighty bulls here. Thanks Alec love you to bro. haha. Juan and I have agreed from the start that things may be headed for a correction.

 Yea James kinda had me down and I did feel pretty alone for a while. I also cried my self to sleep last night. While he was looking down at me from his mansion with all his degrees ( and crystal ball ). @James Hamling are you and Jim brothers, you teamed up on me on the last dooms day post as well. Haha. Anyway I think everyone is just going to have to wait and let it play out to see whats really going to happen. Kind of like a very slow movie. Good luck with your investments. We'll see who's right in the end James.      

@James Hamling Totally dodged my question? WHAT ABOUT COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE? TELL US JAMES? WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN? We all know how great you are, and how much experience you have as an all seeing oracle or the economy. Answer my question. 

@James Hamling What about commercial RE James. Do you have anything to say about that. Let us know whats going to happen on that front as well? I also strongly disagree with you. There will be a bigger correction in the single family and multi family RE sectors than you are forcasting. People need to be warned. Especially new investors. You are one of the people laughing at me in the other threads. Acting like your an economist on BP. You should not give people a false sense of security. This is not the same as people calling out a correction before covid. There is too much at play here to have no effect. 

pandemic putting the squeeze on nationwide office leasing 

https://www.sandiegouniontribu...

https://www.seattletimes.com/b...

https://tucson.com/business/in...

https://www.curbed.com/2020/7/...

Do you think anyone effected by the above articles owns a house. Its just a couple examples, but there are so many things happening all at once. Will the fed keep pumping money into the market forever? They have to let go eventually or they will crash the dollar. They are in a lose lose situation and after the elections it does not matter who wins there going to have let things play out. At that time your going to see a huge wave of short sales and foreclosures. Inventory will not stay this way. A stock market and RE correction are coming. I would not be surprised if you start seeing things happening within the next 3-6 months. I believe more data will come out to support my opinion in that time. People touting that everything is find mostly have a vested interest in doing so. Not sure if there lying to you or they just can't get past that bull part of there brain, but listen to your gut here. Something is drastically wrong when you in the middle of a global pandemic, RE hits all time high, and stock market hits all time high ( nasdaq and S&P ). To me those are major warning signs to get out. 

Sound the alarm 

@Steve K.

I think you're wrong sitting out in waiting is actually a great strategy right now. The only thing I'd be doing right now is shorting the stock market if it wasn't for the fed pumping money into it every day. Already got bit trying that one this year.

The market would have crashed already probably worse than 2008 if the fed didn't come to the rescue that's not how things should work . A capitalist market does not work that way. It's unfair for people that plan accordingly save and try to get ahead by doing the smart thing and being conservative. While the rest of the US lives pay check to pay check and gets bailed out.

I'm tired of defending myself against so many bulls, by the way Steve show me 3 realtors who are bearish right now and telling their clients to get out with equity or hold off on buying And I'll be impressed. If you found them it would surprise me.

@Steve K. @Henry Lazerow @Whit B. Have you ever noticed that RE agents are always bullish. Look at just this thread alone. For the most part your vested interest in the housing market staying strong and your salesman type aggressive way of being competitive, keeps you in this line of thought. Keep telling your clients its a good time to buy. That will deff help them out, and line your pockets at the same time. Good job. 

Whit it doesn't have anything to do with how much equity someone has in there house. Will the bank still take your house if you can't pay your mortgage? If you neighbor sells his rental or his house just like Joe purchased that is the new comp for that neighborhood. You think inventory is going to stay this way. You got lucky because your markets have been really hot from low inventory. That's it. Just because you were lucky this year and did well as realtors does not mean the market will not correct.   

@Joe Cassandra That is a really honest opinion of which direction the market may be headed. I'm not alone in this thought process.