All Forum Posts by: Chris Gawlik

@Nathan Smith I think it's a really great post that you brought up this topic. I did not have time to read the entire post I'm just sitting in my car on my cell phone with a flat tire on the side of the road lol.

So sorry if I'm repeating the same thing that others have said already but my 17 year old and I have been having this exact discussion so I think it's really relevant to me.

To be a great realestate investor does not take a college degree whatsoever but what it does take is drive if you do not have drive you will not be successful.

But there are some things that do require a college degree if that's what you want for a career nurse engineer teacher ect.

I also found this really great video. The video just proves a point it does not mean to become a plumber electrician ect. But what it does prove is that there are so many other opportunities that do not require a college degree, good luck Nathan.

https://youtu.be/CVEuPmVAb8o

small business is in some real pain right now. I think this is what will pop the bubble. Inventory will go up when moratoriums and forbearance is lifted. Be careful of residential RE right now. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/1...

When people are running to something turn around and run the other way quickly. Residential RE is not looking very safe at the moment. Everyone keeps saying, there is such a huge demand for single family houses. This might be the case while people wait out covid. Which by the way is not over. Second waves and re closures are happening all over the country. Inventory will change dramatically when the moratoriums and forbearance is over. I think investor are really underestimating what impact this is having on small business all over the country. IMO this is what will pop the bubble we are in. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/1...   

Bitcoin is really bad. Just another fiat currency. Gets its value from what people think its worth. If investor confidence starts to fade the currency will drop like a rock. Its even worse then our own dollar. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/0...

  @John Dennis I agree some properties won't be worth selling, but I think I like J Scotts line of thought on this, if you don't want to hold on to a property for the next 5 years then you should sell it. He's the host of the bigger pockets business pod cast. 

I think there will be deflation coming. That's what most bearish economist and hedge fund managers are trying to figure out ATM. Inflation or deflation. I am thinking with the amount of forbearance and rental moratoriums there is going to be massive deflation. Some of my lines of thought on this is just simple common sense. The forward momentum of money is just not there right now. There are so many negative things happening from all directions the trickle down effect will have a devastating impact on the economy over the next two years.

 This was actually happening before covid even started. I have discussed this before in some of my post only to be met by ridicule and laughter from the bulls and quite a few realtors. Look at when the fed started to lower rates. They started to do this in late 2019. The economy was already in trouble, covid just hammered the coffin shut.   

I am gathering cash to get ready for what's coming. I believe that in some harder hit areas there will be some amazing opportunities if your willing to move to that location learn the markets that are the hardest hit. Listening to the bulls at this time is a fools game. Don't let them swing your opinion that everything is going to be fine and the market will keep going up forever. This global downturn is just beginning.  

Really appreciate all of your input, learned a ton from this post. Good article, @Mike D'Arrigo. I guess finding deals in good neighborhoods is always going to be key. I think I have always looked for a shortcut or an easy way out, but there really is no easy way out of this. No matter how you look at it if you want to make money in RE you have to work your *** off. 

@Jim Spatzenfeld Hey Jim totally agree with you. Not about the economy but yes the trades would be a good place for kids to get a great job. Check out this vid.

Don't follow your passion

@Marcus Auerbach This crisis began even before covid. Covid just put a super giant nail in a coffin that was already there. 

https://prospect.org/economy/t...

https://www.reuters.com/articl...

This is why the fed already started to lower rates before covid even started. I think we were already headed for a recession before covid.

Fed cuts rates in Oct 2019 

I don't think people understand the amount of forbearance / moratorium going on and what the stimulus is doing to keep the economy propped up. I also think bullish investors are extremely underestimating a trickle down effect that is coming from so many directions that a free market will not and can not sustain itself. Notice I said free market. That means a consumer driven economy. We do not have a consumer driven economy right now, but they can not keep pumping money in forever. Eventually it has to come to a stop or they will crash the dollar. Here is what is coming at you from all directions. 

Unemployment is going to get worse and the numbers are already skewed ( so much more to say about this its an entire post by itself ) , forbearance, eviction moratoriums, low consumer confidence, worldwide supply chain break downs.

https://www.supplychainbrain.c...

There's to much going on not to have an effect on the amount of inventory that will come when all of theses problems finally show there face to the public eye. When the stimulus, moratoriums, forbearance is over. Wall street is already preparing for this. Main street will find out soon. I disagree, this will spill into the RE market and will destroy the commercial real estate market. If you want to pick up some good commercial deals wait and year and get them at 50%-70% discount. If you think peoples equity will save them I will disagree with that as well. When waves of short sales and foreclosures come they will have no choice but to panic sell. They will be competing with so many more short sales and foreclosures than we even had in 2008. In my opinion, this has only just begun.   

@James Hamling Not even sure James knows what he's saying anymore. He's just talking himself in circles. This is what he said earlier in this post 

James " Math never lies, never. The 08/09 financial collapse was called 24 months BEFORE it started, those who called it with pin point accuracy cited MATH, that it was all in the math and data, inevitable. Matter of fact a major movie was made of those people and that "The Big Short", so I would have to strongly disagree as math does tell all the struggle is only in people listening to the math and not arguing their "feelings" and emotions over the math."

Me clear winner of this debate haha "You said those who cited it with pinpoint accuracy. Who are they. Show me what math they used. Because those who called the last crash are calling it out again. There are economist and fund managers who called this last crash. They called the last economic down turn and they are warning people again. Tell me who called the last crash, who is not warning people about what's coming."

James "Seriously???? "The Big Short", look it up, watch, learn something. I have only detailed this no less than 2/3 times in this thread alone. Your other childish arguing of "prove the sun sets in the west, SHOW ME or else it isn't real", well if your incapable of lifting a finger to learn anything, I am not here to cure your problems."

Me clear winner of this debate haha "Wait a second even Michael Burry the main character of the Movie The Big Short says a crash is coming soon? What do you think about that James. The guy you said that used MATH to call the last crash says another is coming soon?"

James "Ill ignore that question because I don't have an answer to that, but what I will talk about is myself. I'm so good at real estate investing, and I'm so rich, I'm invincible and nothing can happen to me financially ever. So I'll tell everyone else that there wrong and tell them to invest all of there money in stocks and real estate because IM THE BEST."

I don't know James I think your argument is falling apart right in front of everyone on this very post. Not looking to good for you, but keep going. Everyone wants to keep hearing about how many deals you have done and how long you have been in the industry and how rich and powerful you are. Slow clap for you. Its coming. 

@James Hamling This is just the beginning James, you need to face reality. Your story is starting to sound like your grasping at straws more and more. Your infinite wisdom, and how much experience you have in RE will not stop this from coming. Neither will your arrogance. What we really should be asking is are we going into a deflationary correction or a inflationary correction. I think we are going to see heavy deflation coming. Keep buying those stocks James, load up and watch what happens to your portfolio. Also it makes total sense that your a real estate agent. You could also call your friend Michael Burry and ask him for some advice, maybe he will knock some sense into you. Remember your MATH you were speaking of earlier in this post. Your friend Burry has something to say about the stock market. 

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/n...  

 
You really have to read between the lines of what Michael Burry is saying. He can not come straight out and say that we are in deep ****, but he knows we are. He is going to profit from this just like he did in the housing crisis.

read this statement from him below. He said this in another 2019 article. 

“This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis in that price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved models of risk that proved to be untrue.”

Models of risk that prove to be UNTRUE. I think that will sum up your opinion James. 

MATH below ACTUAL DATA just the beginning

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/gr...

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