All Forum Posts by: Chris Gawlik

@Steve K. @Jim Spatzenfeld Spend your money how you want. Go buy some commercial RE its also looking good ATM as well. Like I said everyone is laughing at me now, but as time goes on your going to get really quite about it. Its just my opinion take it or leave it. I strongly feel like a correction is coming. 

Yea Steve that was a pretty bad one from 2010, thought that was 2020, but hey your going to play this game your way and ill play it my way. But im not going to sit quite while all of you bulls keep acting like there is nothing wrong with the economy at all and everything is fine. Its just blatantly obvious. The economy is headed for a correction.

GDP Drops 32.9% Worst in History

@Steve K.

https://www.reuters.com/articl...

https://www.investmentnews.com...

https://www.marketwatch.com/st...

https://fortune.com/2019/01/22...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ne...

@Jim Spatzenfeld

10% in July to 8% unemployment in Aug is a false sense of security. This is how they spin it. We created 1.4 million jobs in Aug. No we did not create anything. Those jobs were from people being laid off previous. That number will also climb higher over the next year. No, unemployment is not only low wage jobs. Part of that number was also government jobs. Government jobs don't help the economy. Paying one hand with the other. There are many jobs lost that are not coming back, ever. Companies are going bankrupt. This is just the beginning. Everything culminating together is going to have a world wide trickle down effect. its already happening and Its going to get worse. This is not over.  

@Johnnie Walker Now that's the honesty that I wanted to hear! Wow. Crazy stuff. Deff gives me some insight into a war zone type area. 

Since your being so honest I wanted to know, why did you choose to invest in that location? Was the deal so good you could not pass it up...? Do you like investing in this type of asset class because of the cash flow? Are you going to buy more of this type of asset? Are you trying to clean it up? 

Sorry for so many questions. Just really curious about what got you into this type of asset from your perspective. Really appreciate your brutal honesty. Also not taking away from any of the other land lords contributing to the thread. Appreciate every ones diff perspectives and personalities.

@David Gonzalez I disagree. I think were likely to see much more inventory coming out when the moratoriums are lifted. There are also many private lenders and there loan servicing companies who are in a tight bind right now. The way I look at it is business' hold 2 books the one for the public eye to see and the real books. Business' don't want you to see the real books until is absolutely necessary. Thats the way it is for a large part of the economy right now. Private lenders don't want there clients to know about the forbearance there dealing with. There going to asking for all that money up front. There not going to add these missed payments to the back end of there loan. Your going to see a large wave of foreclosures and short sales. It may be even bigger than 2008.

Consumer confidence is at an all time low. That is not going to change for a long time even when a vaccine gets approved, Which by the way won't be for a very long time. maybe 7-8 months from now. Kids are not going to school across the US. There are so many things happening at once. Think about this. A historical global epidemic has put the world on hold for months now. Yet the stock market hit an all time high and real estate has gone up 10% and is so hot ATM. Sounds very much like 2006 to me. Everyone wanted in.

I strongly feel like there is going to be a big correction in the next year. I have posted my beliefs and have gotten belittled and laughed out of thread after thread about this, but I'm sticking to my gut on this one. Correction coming be ready. There are multi million dollar ( honest ) hedge fund managers that also agree with me. Start to look up letters written to clients. There warning them to get out of the market. Its not going to end well for those of you who keep up this bullish game. The RE market is going to feel the effects of all this as well.  

@Account Closed So even though your telling me do not predict whats going to happen next. What I get from your strategy is that you are doing the exact same thing I am and holding your cash in a waiting pattern. So why even argue. I sold my properties to gather up cash and wait and see what happens. Gained some good equity there and took it off the table. If it does not happen within the next few months and I don't see data showing a correction may be coming soon. I will have to jump back in. I can't wait forever. Just from what I am seeing and feeling. This seems really bad right now and I feel like were up for a correction. They say not to invest with emotion right? I can't say Im not doing that because I am. Very afraid of what could happen to me equity wise if I jumped in and started buying up properties again and equity's. Everything is just to volatile right now. I could name 10 things going on that are all happening at once. It just does not feel like the right time to buy any stocks or RE right now. Watch the vids I posted in the previous posts. Pretty scary stuff from people who are far more experienced than me. I agree with them. I will wait and see what happens for a few months. My opinion is still, correction is coming. If I'm wrong than so be it.

@Todd Pultz Holy %&&#, great post here. Great detailed info again Todd. It really gives you insight as to how to be a hands on manager. Never would have thought about the cameras. When you say you have 100 doors what type of properties are they? Mostly Multi units or SF or a mix? When you have a vacancy do you have a system for what you do rehab or repair wise to get the unit ready for next tenant. For instance you won't put in a garbage disposal, or you only put in vinyl flooring instead of carpet ect...? Have you ever purchased a property and replaced all the systems like a total gut job, new electrical plumbing ect?   

@Finn Valjean III Sorry Finn not sure I would have enough time to help you, but would love to see what you come up with. Also have not decided what location we may start to invest in. Going over pros and cons between moving OOS and starting more of a cash flow business. Or staying in Cali and more of an appreciation type of investment. I am very hands on and not afraid of confrontation. I worked in casinos dealing cards, while I don't have any type of security or police type background I grew some thick skin.

My wife would have a hard time moving away from family, but would not have to work a 9-5 any more. So its a hard choice. What happens with the economy over the next 6 months plays into our decision as well. We have made big moves though, just recently. We sold our home, our rentals, and are gearing up to make a big move and change our lives. One way or another we will be making real estate investing our full time business. 

@Todd Pultz really appreciate what you gave us in your response. I was reading your response to my wife and kids. Really impressive. I love your don't take crap style of how you manage your properties. 

Was wondering if you could give me an estimate of how many evictions you have done over the past couple of years? Have you ever had any problems with meth? What does that mean for your house if there has been meth use or someone cooking meth in your house? These are some of the things I am most afraid of investing in these types of properties. It would be horrible, but I have gutted houses before. I assume if theirs a meth lab in one your rentals you would have to almost tear it down to studs, but thats just a guess. Thanks again for the great reply Todd. This post has gone further than I thought it would. Good information in this post.  

@John C. Wow really amazing information. Thanks so much its what I was looking for. Really great stuff. Thanks for taking your time to write a really great response. Love the detail as well. I am considering this seriously ATM. I was thinking of OOS, but reading your post I think It would be to much risk and have decided if I'm going to pull the trigger on something like this, I would be moving to that location. Thanks again John. 

@Account Closed I don't claim to be a genius or a profit or an economist or buffets protege. Just giving my opinion. Still many people telling me how its impossible to time the market, and giving no opinion about what they think will happen in the next year or so. Are you changing your investment strategy at all. Or are you just plugging away at it like you have always been. Do you think this will have no effect on the US economy at all? You know what side of the fence I'm on. David, what do you think will happen in the next year?  

@Account Closed. Also Jay you said you think most people go broke that buy the slums OOS? You also said C and D class landlords are much more involved? I wonder if being in the area to manage the problems better, if you could be profitable or even very successful as a D class land lord. Sounds like Im joking, but Im not. That's who I wanted to hear from and the real story about how it is to own that sort of asset class.

One reason is I read this post I think there is a newer one as well about this. the blog article is not so much about D class properties, but it got me to thinking, and I wondered what other investors thought about this type of investing. 

https://www.biggerpockets.com/... 

There is an area in Redlands CA that is pretty close to a war zone. What I wonder is when you start coming out of the hood and start heading into the nicer areas, there has to be that area in between that you could find some C and B neighborhoods. I wanted to know about those type of areas as well in the mid west.

Kansas City, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Detroit

Anyone out there that does this sort of investing that the article is talking about, and successful at it. Thanks.