All Forum Posts by: Chris Gawlik

@Mark H. Porter I am not trying to start any kind of argument here and you probably have much more experience than I do, but just giving my opinion. Deff do not have a crystal ball either, but I do see many posts about buying there first rental property and getting into flipping and investing for the first time. Or comments like Don't wait to buy RE buy RE and wait. Um yea I deff think there are people on the other side of the coin that think the market is going to climb out of this hole quickly. A couple of the above post just make it sound so simple and easy. comments like just be smart about it or its as simple as if covid gets better the economy gets better. How is that going to help anyone new or warn someone to wait to buy there first home. and yes there are people who don't know that forbearance can be called due all at once. I was just talking with someone just recently who did not know that.  

 If I am right and I may be able to get some information out there to help someone new or on the fence about waiting or buying then I did my job. This is just my opinion take it or leave it.   

I keep hearing many investors speak of the housing market and stock market as if we are in a normal situation. Everything is great and the stimulus has solved all of the problems that a global pandemic has created. Take advantage of the situation and buy as many deals as you can before its to late. There are great deals in stocks that you should be pouncing on to ride the market to the new highs of 2021 and 2022. Trump looking good to get reelected will take us to places we have never been before with the US economy. Its really confusing and hard to believe that more people aren't sounding the alarm bells and getting ready for whats to come. Run while you can. This is just my opinion and everybody has there own way. I am not trying to offend anyone, and people must do what they feel is the right with there investment plans and strategies. Let me explain why are some of the reasons I think that the US economy is not ok, and we are up for some major pain to come.
 
Forbearance - Most inventors think that most banks are going to wrap your missed payments to the back end of your loan and you will not have to pay this until the end of your loan. So no big deal just 6 more payments and the loan will get paid off, but that is not the entire story. There are many private lenders who do not have to keep up good appearances in the public eye like the big banks do. They are going to require that the missed payments be paid all at once. With the majority of Americans living paycheck to paycheck this is just not going to be possible for them, and they will end up defaulting which will lead to a huge influx of foreclosures.

Brick and Mortar Jobs - Consumer confidence is at an all time low for going into buildings and doing business. This includes so many types of business' its very hard to name them all. All types of retail, hotels, restaurants, home goods, and small local business', to name a few. Many states have opened then shut down again and will not make the same mistake twice. This shut down will be much worse than the first because politicians will not want to look foolish if they reopen again and the numbers start to climb like they did the first time. With consumers not going out, how many people that are currently unemployed will get there jobs back. How could people think that this will have no effect at all on the US economy and that things will return to normal very soon. As soon as we get a vaccine or the numbers start trending lower everything will get right back to the way it was and business will be booming again in the US. This is a complicated process that will take years to come back from and In my opinion it has change the face of the way we do business forever.  

Inventory - With the above mentioned forbearance we are going to see huge amount of defaults. This is going to create a huge amount of inventory and the market will have no choice but to correct. Right now things look GREAT because of low inventory. This is causing a huge demand for housing because people are not selling like they were before covid, but when a flood of foreclosures hit the market things will shift. The banks are already preparing for this and have set aside billions to prepare for the coming flood of defaults and foreclosures.

Stimulus - Its going to dry up eventually, do you think they can keep pumping money into the market forever. When the bonus unemployment runs out and the bail outs stop there is going to be some pain. This is inevitable and the cheering bulls will soon start to change there tune and be heading for the hills.

RMBS and CMBS - this is a long complicated subject in itself, to long to list here and I am no expert, but all of these topics above are connected to mortgage backed securities. The government is not stepping in and helping the private lenders the way there helping Fanny and Freddie and once the banks start to sound the alarm bells the truth will come out and the market will correct.

Thanks for listening to my warning and rant. In my opinion if you can hold off or pass on some maybe marginal deals for the next few moths you should start to see more of the truth of the pain to come. Don't follow the masses. They are running straight off of a cliff and to me the signs are so obvious its hard not to see them. After all we are still in a global pandemic. Even though many people are trying to act like nothing is different, there going to have to face reality sooner or later, things have change and will take years to get back to the way they were before. Thanks Chris Gawlik

@Darius Ogloza

I don't think you will have to build a new carport with the new law but that depends on your city but Im pretty sure that the new law will not make you add additional parking if you're going to put in an ADU

@Pat Saperstein

I know how you feel about holding on to cash. I feel the same way about it. Please shoot me a message or give me an update if you decide to build your ADU I am very interested in the process And want to learn as much as I can about them before I start building them. I will actually be the owner builder and building them myself.

@Barbie Steele

would you happen to the tiny builders company info? thnx

Do you believe covid-19 is dangerous? How safe are you being ie mask everywhere you go, wash hands more often, carry sanitizer ect.?How do you think covid will effect the economy a year from today? No right or wrong answer.

@Brandon Carlson I don't think crash is to strong of a word here. I have heard so many diff things about why this will not be the same as 2008, but most of these people are deeply entrenched in the market with retirement accounts and over leveraged rental properties and vacation rentals.
This is going to sound pretty anecdotal but, I take a walk every night with my family. Its a nice neighborhood and other people take there nightly walks around the same area. When I walk by people even young people, you can feel that they do not want to get anywhere near you, and I feel the exact same. I have not gone to wal-mart / target for the longest period in my life. I get everything online, but skip out on things that I really don't need right now because its a pain and I have to wait a couple days to a week right now. 

This is not going to be over with for at least another year, and even after that some people are afraid to take a vaccine. This is going to change the face of the way business is done for years. I strongly feel this will have a much bigger impact on the economy than people are letting on right now. Business' do not want to tell you the real truth until they absolutely have too. They know there share price will take a big hit, but eventually the truth will come out and the trickle down effect from one business to another will be catastrophic. Right now its stimulus vs the economy, but they can't keep pumping money into the system for ever. Eventually they will have to let the pain in and its going to hurt pretty badly. 

I am also willing to admit that I was wrong, so if none of this happens I will be the first to admit that I called it poorly. I even put my money were my mouth is and sold my home before covid even took place seeing a downturn on the horizon, covid just put the nail in the coffin for me. In the end you have to do what you think is right and do what your comfortable with. Good luck to you guys with your investing.       

Hold off on buying for a few months and see what happens with covid. Not that I'm an expert with the economy, but just wait 6 or 7 months and see what happens. Just my opinion, but I am applying for equity lines and getting ready for a pretty bad recession. I know things are going nuts right now with housing, but its not going to last. Everything in the entire world will be effected by this soon. Once the banks start to sound the alarm bells people will start to realize that the stock market is going to take another big hit and the housing market will follow.

Bank of America Profit Falls 45% as it Prepares for Loan Default

Many investors think this is not the same kind of situation as the last downturn in 2008 but I disagree. I think things are headed for a crash soon. That's why I sold my primary house and pulled out the equity to get ready for the coming crash. You can read about that here. 

People Think Were Nuts 

To be fair I sold my home before covid even started, but I feel even more strongly about a looming crash soon.

I was wondering if anyone had any experience at buying at auction more specifically in California, but any state will do. How would you know if you were bidding on a second deed of trust at an auction? I have heard of this happening to investors even after they have a title company check title, someone makes a mistake and they get screwed bidding on the second and not the first. How true is this? Have your heard of this happening to people? Also is there a way to get title insurance when purchasing at an auction? Is there anyway to protect your self besides having or title company follow the chain of title or making sure the title is good somehow? Would love to hear your story about buying at auction along with any other advice you have about the process. Thanks.  

I was wondering if anyone had any experience or was planning on building or converting existing living space into an extra unit in California, or any state for that matter. The reason I specifically mentioned CA is because the laws have been updated recently state wide. These laws are because of a housing shortage in CA and can be pretty beneficial to an investor. Would love to hear your story if your are currently building one or even if your thinking of building one. Thanks everyone.