All Forum Posts by: Chris Gawlik

Everyone keeps saying money flowing around. Where is the money flowing too? There is a huge divide with what happens on wall street and what happens on main street. Main street is getting crushed while wall street insiders are getting rich. Let me ask you @Shawn Elrod are you going to see any of that stimulus money? If so how much 5k maybe 10k if your lucky. Will that change your financial future? I'm not being sarcastic or facetious, I'm asking you how much did you get. Are you going to use it to invest, if so how much will that change things for you.

Most Americans are not reading bigger pockets right now, or looking for deals or the best stock picks. Most of the average Americans live paycheck to paycheck. They are the ones that are going to be hit hard. They are also the ones that will have the biggest effect on the economy.  

https://www.usatoday.com/story...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0... 

https://www.nbcchicago.com/new...

https://www.businessinsider.co...

Read the bottom article this is happening all over the country. The average Joe is living paycheck to paycheck. Its a trickle down effect that is going to cause a storm. Its already causing major problems. Read the bigger pockets articles. Not the forums. Even the home and apartment building supply chains are being crushed right now and its only the beginning. My point is, there are so many things going on not just in our country alone, but all over the world that will have some sort of effect on the economy. All the different problems happening all at the same time. Its to much for any politician to solve. They can only put up a smoke screen to fool you into thinking that this problem can be solved.  

To tell you the truth I like that so many people are bulls about the US economy, the stock and housing market. I will do the opposite of the masses. When everyone is running towards the market you run. When every one starts to run away from it you move towards it. Ohh yea and by the way if you figure out how to get any of the big money there pumping into the economy, let me know about it.        

There is so much at play here guys, that even the pros are not seeing or mentioning. There are so many people that are going to lose there jobs. If you think this is over, its not, its only just begun. Also, what your not realizing is that consumer confidence is at an all time low right now. Look at the graph below pretty simple to see, a slight uptick in the last month or so, but that will not last. Its going to get worse.

https://data.oecd.org/leadind/...

@Shayla L Otolorin Glad you mentioned inventory. Its something that keeps coming up from people who don't believe there will be a correction. The market is so strong right now in my area. Prices have gone up 10%-15%. Its not to hard to watch those vids that I posted to see whats coming. Supply and demand. There will be many, many, waves of defaults, foreclosures, short sales, from land lords defaulting, from home owners defaulting, vacation rentals defaulting. None of this is an issue right now because of the stimulus. Others have eluded to this as well, Once it stops then you will start to see the truth of what the economy really looks like. The stock market is a big party right now, but that will end with a huge correction as well. The market was headed for a recession before covid even hit.

look at the DATA. 33% GDP RETRACTION WORST IN HISTORY EVER. not sure what else I can say. This is only the beginning. I'm not just spouting this from my crystal ball here in my dungeon. Read the news headlines, you don't even need to read between the lines. There blatantly telling you that a crash is coming soon and its eminent. Read what safe and honest hedge fund managers are saying to there clients. The data, the analysis, the timing, all wrapped into a nice little package for you to see. On one of these vids, these guys are multi million dollar RE hedge fund manager. Over 100 million, and there warning you. Not sure what else I can say here. I am not alone in this thought process. I am very much so outnumbered by bulls on bigger pockets that's for sure, but I will stick to my guns and repeat that its coming and to be prepared for it.   

https://www.forbes.com/sites/i...

https://www.fool.com/investing...

Sound the alarm

The 2021 Crash

I hear many of the same things over and over again in different ways. What most of you are saying is that the market is so strong right now there no way things will change that drastically over the next year ( mostly from people, who can't get out and have a strong vested interest in the market stabilizing and normalizing ). Because of this and because of that Its not possible for the US economy ( or housing market ) to correct. Your wrong, it can correct, will correct, and the process has already begun. When the moratorium and stimulus ends the storm will begin. This is a fact that will happen no matter what remedy or magic numbers you pull from your hats. No matter how much experience you have. Your going to have to face reality, its coming.

@Joseph ODonovan I totally agree with that statement, but strategies, I think especially for new investors should be to wait for a few months. I think any investor not adjusting there strategy for whats coming right now will be sorry in 6-8 months. I also think many people will be downgrading there cost of living because there going to lose there jobs and homes. 

Yes its totally true I am repeating what I am listening to from other savy more experienced investor, but what I'm not repeating is the hyped up its ok to buy and hold anytime if your comfortable with your purchase, or don't wait to buy real estate buy real estate and wait. I am telling people to look at the data and listen to the professionals that are trying to warn you that its coming. This is not just me that believes this. There are many other muti million dollar hedge fund managers writing letters to there clients telling them that a huge storm is coming, and to prepare for it.   

@Max T. Again, an argument with no opinion. Hey, its just my opinion. Everyone is entitled to there own. This is what I believe, and if my beliefs can help someone new wait for a better opportunity than I did my job. If I am wrong, then I'm wrong. Like I said before I'm not just chicken little sky is falling about what I believe. I put my money on the table brother. This is how I'm playing this poker game. I sold my home. Sold my rental properties. It was not just some small thing for me either. It was my dream home, but I believe in my heart that this correction will give me more opportunity to jump start my financial independence. Take it or leave it, this is what I believe, and this is my strategy, I took action, and this is where I stand, right or wrong. 

Getting quite a bit of flak from very experienced investors. Its not an easy thing. Another thing is some people can't get out. There priced in and there's no way for them to get out. Of course people are going to disagree with me when there so heavily invested in the market, or its there source of income. I truly believe many investors are going to go broke. The sad part about it is, for some theirs really nothing they can do about it now, its to late.  

@Steve Morris You dodged my question. What is your opinion about what will happen in the next year with the US economy and real estate prices. Your a Portland OR broker. What do you think will happen to Portland OR real estate prices in the next year. Do you think there will be an increase in foreclosures and short sales in the next year? Do you think unemployment is going to go up or down in the US in the 6 months? I have chosen my side of the fence on all of the questions I just asked you. You seem to be arguing, but not giving an opinion about what you think will happen. If you disagree so strongly with the post tell me why you think this way. What data do you have? How many people are unemployed right now in the US. Many people think those jobs are coming back. There not. Those jobs are gone fore ever. The companies filing bankruptcy will be gone forever. This is just the start of it. This is what I have unemployment rate for July 10.2 %. GDP drops at a 32.9 % rate, the worst US contraction in HISTORY. If you think the RE market being hot reflects the current condition of the US economy, your wrong. Just because your floating high on the hog being a realtor / broker right now does not mean there will be no correction. Its just means that people held off on selling because of covid and you got lucky because of supply and demand. When stimulus can no longer support whats happening then you will see the pieces start to fall. The banks will start to sound the alarm bells and you my friend will be very very quite. 

@Henry Lazerow Its also funny that most brokers and realtors totally disagree with my post. Maybe thats because they want the market to climb forever to keep the money flowing. I get it, but its not reality. There has to be a correction at some point. The economy expands then contracts. We are quickly heading into a contraction.  
   

@Mike Dymski I get it. Some people are priced in and they will ride the wave, but for someone new thinking of a house hack or a flip may want to just wait until a bit more data comes out. Just a few more months could save you quite a bit of heartache and headache. Don't buy into FOMO ( Fear Of Missing Out ) right now. 

I am actually replacing my moms windows ATM. I am doing the work my self. Its actually surprisingly easy and it will save you thousands of dollars if you DIY it. When I say thousands let me give you an example. We got 3 quotes from glass companies in the area. 15k was the cheapest quote. I can do my moms entire house for around 4k. If your interested in a DIY project PM me and ill give you some advice about things I learned from the install so far. My father in Law owns a glass company. Even he could not beat Home Depots price for retrofit windows. Plus if the order is above $1500 most of the time they give you 10%-15% off.  

@Juan Pardo Hey Jaun, I really appreciate all your support. I am actually trying to get prepared and take action. Starting to look into lease options. I think there may be some opportunities in this area if the market takes a dip. Just got back from driving for dollars tonight and studying my local market. If I find any deals right now I would probably just try to wholesale them, but I want to be prepared and know my local neighborhoods and market for the coming downturn. 

Whats are your thoughts Juan? Also was wondering your plans for the future. You can PM me if you want. Talk to you soon.