All Forum Posts by: Timothy Lewman

@Matthew Kinch glad you like it. I put these out every month once all the info is posted.

@Zac Ballin glad you find it useful

My best advice for you is to buy a triple decker multi-family as an owner occupied property.  You can live cheap, learn landlording/property mgmt and save for your next investment by living cheap.  

December 2019 Massachusetts Single Family Housing update:

What a year! We closed out 2019 with a bang as median SFH prices increased by 9.93% over 12/2018 per MARealtor.com, showing up at $412,250, another record high. MARealtor.com reports only transactions from the 3 MLS services in Massachusetts. The Warren group also reports state statistics, the difference being they report ALL closed sales which includes those that aren't publicly listed. The Warren Group shows the median price for SFH at $397,500, a 10.42% increase over their 12/2018 number.

As far a sales volume - the number of houses changing hands - we had a pick up for December but an overall decline for the year. MARealtor shows we had a 14.73% increase from 12/2018, 4,129 to 4,737 closed sales. For the year we are down 0.1%, 55,635 2019 VS 55,688 2018.

The Warren Group also shows a dramatic 13.27% increase in sales for 12/2019 vs 12/2018. For the year, Warren group shows 59,034 for 2019 VS. 59,732 for 2018, down 1.17% overall. We had 4,044 houses sold or transferred that were not listed on the MLS, 6.77% of all the closings.

If you are looking for new listings to help increase sales volume, keep looking because they were down in December 2019 by 13.73% VS 12/2018. For the 2019 year, new listings were down 3.44% VS 2018.

All of this has pushed months supply to a new low of 1.7 months. 6 months is considered a neutral stance.

Case-Shiller index of housing shows that the Boston region up 0.48%, compared to the national index which was up 0.15%. These are very minor changes that don't amount to much. https://us.spindices.com/…/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-boston…

Analysis:

In general we have had the same problem for years now, more people looking to buy in the Bay State than available houses. Basic market economics show that we have more demand than supply, which pushed prices up. Until we can get more inventory of existing homes and new construction homes, we have no price relief in sight. Low mortgage rates are helping keep homes affordable for those that can find one.

National info:

National Association of Home Builders NAHB.com, shows that construction materials 2019 price increasing 1.5%, compared to 1.9% in 2018. http://eyeonhousing.org/…/building-material-price-growth-s…/

New construction sales for 12/2019: 694K vs. 728K expected (annualized numbers). On a year-over-year basis however, new home sales were up 23%. The median sales price of new homes in December 2019 was $331,400; average sales price was $384,500. For the year we had an estimated 681,000 sales in 2019, up 10.3% from 2018 figure of 617,000 https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

Happy 2020, how about some November housing stats for Massachusetts?

The trends are still intact, not much has changed except the pace of decline in sales volume. The MAR, measures retail sales on the MLS, shows another SFH record high median price for 11/2019, $405,000, which is up 3.39% from 11/2018. Warren Group, measures all recorded sales, has the median price at $390,000, up 1.3% from 11/2018.

Sales volume is down on the MLS from 11/2018 by 9.30% at 4,504 retail sales. Warren group shows 4,615 closings, down 11.78% from a year ago.

Inventory also took a tumble in November compared to 11/2018, 11,142 homes were available for purchase, down 16.92% from 11/2018!!!

Don't look for new listings to help the inventory problem - it was down to 3,680 or 12.73% from 11/2018.

Not surprisingly, months supply registered 2.3 months, indicating a very tight sellers market. 6 months is considered to be neutral balance of buyers/sellers.

We can look forward at the dawn of the new year but until inventory and new listings number's improve, expect more price increases as buyers compete for an ever dwindling supply of homes to purchase.

@Lais Lima dont quit your day job, it's a lot harder than it seems. Fix and flip is basically project management, assuming your not a contractor doing the physical work. Wholesale is very hard to find good deals, you have to know how to get ARV, repair costs (difficult it you have no construction experiance) and great negotiations skills to get houses under market value. Look up the complete deal flow system, $400 or so. Great info, Nick is a beast in our area (eastern MA).

@Kristen Rolinski it's already happening, Miami is experiencing sunshine fluids during high tides. Stay away from coasts and low laying areas. In general the south is going to get even hotter, while the north will become the new south, in 100 years or so. There are maps that show how sea rise will effect your area, just google it.

@Kai Van Leuven when the Federal Reserve stops pumping money into the economy thru QE and Repo, and way too low interest rate targets. Bubbles in RE, stocks and bonds (assets) are the result. It will end when the Fed gives up buy raising rates and selling off its ginormous balance sheet, gets back to normal and let's the dust settle. We had a glimpse of what will happen at the end of 2018. This cant and wont last forever.

@Mohammad Haidarasl not counting the potential investment income, can you make the payments with your current cashflow? If so I would invest you cash pile. If not, look at refinancing it to a lower rate and see if you put down some money if the payment will be more manageable.

@Taghrid Soliman keep you wallet in your pocket. You can learn most everything on BP and at your local REIAs.