All Forum Posts by: Timothy Lewman

@Brian Thomason Yes it's coming.  @Travis M. is correct, it will take time and the Biden administration will likely put more programs in place to kick the can further down the road. My prediction could take a few years to play out but I think is three waves 1) the 1st wave will be homeowners with equity who can list and sell their homes on the MLS the traditional way - or they get wholesaled if a quick sale is needed to satisfy the lien. 2) the 2nd wave will be those that are break even or are forced to sell to avoid foreclosure. 3) third wave will be those that are underwater, they will delay as long as possible but eventually will be foreclosed upon, banks will eventually sell them off.

Check this out:   http://image.adc.auction.com/l...

@Will Stewart glad your reading them. Prices, as a result of low inventory, show it's a great time to invest in MA. I'll have April out real soon.

There are two sets of data that I cover to compile my information. 1) The Warren Group, reports ALL transactions recorded by the Registry. This encompasses not only the 3 MLS services but also the intra-family transfers and unlisted properties that are sold. They provide limited data to the public. 2) Massachusetts Association of Realtors, reports only transactions on the MLS, providing insight into the retail market. Their public data set is more robust and provides a clearer picture of the monthly data.

Median Sales Price: Warren Group shows $402,000, up 6.3% from 3/2019's price of $377,000. MARealtors.com shows $416,000, up 6.67% from 3/2019's price of $390,000.

Closed Sales Volume: Warren Group shows 3,571 homes switched hands, down 2.6% from 3/2019. MARealtor shows 3,471 retail transactions, up a miniscule 0.03% from 3/2019 (it doesn't register on the chart below). As far as a rolling 12 month total, we are on pace to expand what we did in the preceding 12 months by 1 house! (55,666 vs 55,665).The rest of these numbers are exclusively MARealtor.com

Inventory: Number of houses for sale during the period. We had 8,374 SFH's for sale, -22.61% from 3/2019. This is not a Covid-19 stat, for Feb we were -20.45%, Jan -22.49%, Dec 2019 -20.87%...the last increase was recorded 6/2019. Inventory is an ongoing problem in MA, certainly won't be helped by the lockdowns. It's hoped that a severe inventory shortage will help prop up prices in these difficult times.

New Listings: We had 6,061 new listing for the month, down 6.34%. Again, not a Covid-19 stat. We had Feb +11.21%, Jan -9.09%, December -13.73%... the last increase was Jan 2019, so we have had 2 increases in 15 months. The national media is showing trends of 30 to 50% drop in listings depending on the market so these listings numbers will be the 1st Covid-19 state in April numbers, stay tuned!

Months Supply: Where 6 months is considered a market neutral figure between buyers and sellers, we had a paltry 1.8 months, tipping the balance heavily in favor of sellers.

S and P Case-Schiller Index for Boston region showed flat again.

@Nicholas Van Blarcom go to meetup.com look up Black Diamond REIA and Metrowest REIA. Black Diamond has been doing zoom calls.

@Amy Aziz Your welcome!  How's the LA market holding up?  DO you invest in east coast at all? I have one flip going, total gut and reframe, hoping the markets will pick back up in the summer.  Evidence in China is showing that RE is picking up as they end the lock downs.  There is talk of shutting down the construction industry though and that will have me lining up at the gov't $$ trough for small business loans, haha.  

The swan song for the MA real estate single family home market; these represent the last data of the trend heading into Covid-19 shut downs. Expect these start a nosedive for March and should be in full swing for the April numbers. I've seen a variety of predictions and evidence from China's rebound. One thing is clear, volume of closed sales, new listings and inventory will fall off a cliff. Prices are the question of the day - will lower volume lead to price drops to spur buyers?

For February 2020 closed sales, The Warren group (thewarrengroup.com) - reports ALL recorded transactions - shows that Single Family Homes (SFH) had a median price of $380,000, an increase of 4.11% over Feb 2019. They show that transactions are down to 2,673, -4.88%. The Massachusetts Association Realtors (MArealtors.com) reports only sales via the three MLS services in the state, giving us a view of the retail market. The Realtors show that the median price of SFH in Feb was $395,000, up 4.77% over Feb 2019. Closed sales checks in at 2,493, down 6.59% over 2/19.

MARealtors.com provides the rest of the numbers:

Affordability continues to be a challenge as inventory (# of homes for sale in Feb 2020) fell 20.45% compared to 2/19. We have YoY drops in inventory since 7/2019, I expect this trend will accelerate in March and April.

New listings were actually up 11.21% to 4,982, however the rolling 12 month average is still down 3.98% so this is a just blip in what is an otherwise shrinking market. In fact we have had a reduction in new listings in every month since 12/2018, except for the months of 1/19 and 2/20.

MARealtors also shows that the months supply calculation is at 1.7 months. Months supply = the inventory of homes for sale (at the end of a given month) divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.

Case-Schiller index for Boston is up 4.5%, slightly outpacing the national rate of 3.9%. For the record: "The monthly S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices use the “repeat sales method” of index calculation – an approach that is widely recognized as the premier methodology for indexing housing prices – which uses data on properties that have sold at least twice, in order to capture the true appreciated value of each specific sales unit. MSA Represented Counties Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area Essex MA, Middlesex MA, Norfolk MA, Plymouth MA, Suffolk MA, Rockingham NH, Strafford NH"

@Joaquin Camarasa I'm curious to see if people are going to stay home instead of listing thier house or going to open houses and showings. I'm tracking mortgage applications as a 1st read. Any other ideas on how to track impact on real estate?

Greetings, January 2020 Massachusetts real estate update:

The Warren group reports that we had a median sales price for single family homes (SFH) of $393,000 in January 2020, up 7.08% from January 2019. Of transactions on the MLS services, the median price was $405,000, up 6.86% from January 2019. I added a new chart that shows the 12 month moving average of the median price, which smooths out all of the seasonal fluctuations.

As far as closed transactions are concerned, Warren group shows 3,507, up 8.58% from 1/2019. MARealtor.com shows 3,259 properties changing hands, up 6.75%. For the year of 2019, transactions are down 0.10%

Inventory will not save the day, according to MARealtors.com the reading is down 22.49% to a paltry 7,939 homes for sale in January 2020. We haven't seen a figure this low in years, it's off the chart! Additionally, new listings are down 9.09% from 1/2019 to 3,931.

On a national scale, we see the Case-Shiller index check in at 224 for the past 3 months. This has held steady for the last few reports.

Contact my friend Chris' company, I've known him 25 years since college.  He works with investors all the time up in that area:  https://www.dohertyproperties....