All Forum Posts by: Timothy Lewman

October 2021 Massachusetts Single Family Housing Stats: We have some statistical blips as we lap last years Covid skewed fall data.

Median Price: $520,000, +10.43% Yoy - September's Yoy increase was 7.14%, is this just a monthly blip or going back up?

Closed Sales: 4,839, -19.74% Yoy - tough comparison as October 2020 was like a summer selling month. 10/2019 was 4,943, about the same.

Closed Sales YTD: 46,077, +4.06% Yoy. 10/2019 was 46,394, about the same.

Inventory: 5,096, -21.60% Yoy. 10/2019 was 13,437(!), we can handle a lot more houses.

New Listings: 5,258, -19.93% Yoy. 10/2019 was 6,287. 

New Listings YTD: 57,207, -4.39% Yoy. 10/2019 was 66,704, we can handle a lot more houses.

Cumulative Days on Market: 30, -33.33% Yoy. 10/2019 was 59 days. New listings are low and not sticking around, driving prices further into nose bleed territory.

Mass housing stats for September, returning to normal?

Median Price: $525,000 +7.14% Yoy - 7ish % isn't unusual, I have multiple ~7% moves since 2016.

Sales: 5,344, -10.06% - normal number for September, 2020 was unusually high due to delayed purchases from Covid thus the yoy loss

YTD sales: 41,238, +8.36% - highest Sept read I have, houses are selling.

Inventory: 5,875, +6.16% - still too low compared to pre-Covid, see stacked chart.

New Listings: 6,366, -10.61% - still too low compared to pre-Covid, see stacked chart.

YTD New listings: 51,949, -2.47% - prior to Covid we were running 60k+ houses.

Months Supply: 1.2, -14.29% - persistently low indicating an unrelenting sellers market, see the Existing homes as a % of households chart, continues to shrink.

Cumulative days on Market: 26, -44% - persistently low indicating an unrelenting sellers market

Prices: $552,000, +11.97% Yoy (take a look at the 12 month chart, it finally dipped)
Closed sales: 5,766, -8.02% Yoy
Closed sales YTD: 35,894, +11.98% Yoy
Inventory: 5,342, +5.23% Yoy
New listings: 5,954, -8.83% Yoy
New listings YTD: 45,583, -1.21% Yoy
Months Supply: 1.1, -21.43% Yoy
Cumulative days on market: 23, -48.98% Yoy

No slow down in sight; MA housing update for June 2021.

Median prices are +5.18% from May! and +26.31% Yoy.

Closed sales are +29.6% Yoy and YTD closed sales are out pacing last year by 14.89% and matching 2019's pace.

Inventory has pick up slightly, now only down 41% from 6/2020.

New listings are continuing to come on line, +6% from last year and inline with 6/2019. However, we are +1.89% from 2020's YTD pace and -18.62% from 2019's YTD - lots of room for improvement.

Months supply is still painfully low at 0.9 months.

Cumulative days on market is also at a new low, meaning houses are getting scooped up quickly. 

Will the Delta Covid variant throw cold water on the housing market for July? I tend to doubt it.

It's been a hell of a ride for Massachusetts Single Family Housing (SFH). Here are the April numbers, all in Yoy unless stated.

Median Price $528,000; +20.23%

Closed Sales: 3,923; +14.01% - seems large due to Covid shut down base effects

Closed sales YTD: 13,640; +5.09%

Inventory: 4,103; -51.87% - bad but an improvement over Marches -62.37%. Also note March was 3,151, the monthly increase was 952 houses. See the stack chart, we are well below the levels from prior years.

New Listings: 6,721; +69.29% - seems large due to Covid shut down base effects. Also note March was 5,804, the monthly increase was 917 houses. See the stack chart to compare to prior years.

New Listings YTD: 19,157; -6.85%. Months Supply: 0.8 months - it
actually went up from March's 0.6 result of increased new listings that
didn't sell.

Cumulative Days on Market: 36; +40%. Houses are flying off the market.

Months Supply: 0.8, up from 0.6 in March 21

@steven ortiz sorry for the delayed repsonse - My $34k was the down payment, contractor used his money for the rest of the project

Hi,

I did a quick analysis of the tidal wave of foreclosures from Covid related delinquent loans.  The numbers are imperfect - but the latest available.  In short, we have 1.125 million mortgages in Mass (as of 2019) and a 5% delinquency rate (as of 2/21) so that laves us with about 56,274 that are in peril.  Depending upon how many homes actually get listed to pay off the arrears (either forced sale or foreclosure) an how long it takes to process all of them, we may see increase in listings of 9% to 106%.  In a market that is desperate for inventory, these listings will help normalize the market back to pre-Covid levels- and not crash it.  We can easily absorb a doubling of listings, more supply will stop all of these insane 17% yoy price increases. 

I did a video walk though, please click the link:  Video walk through

@Oke Tammik 100% guaranteed to have programs in place within a week or two of Biden taking office.