All Forum Posts by: Ryan Moyer

I own in Kanab and one thing you're going to have to pay mind to other than underwriting is the availability of cleaners and handymen.  You can maybe find someone based out of Panguitch but it would be worth calling a few and seeing if there's anyone even taking on new work there as, outside of that, you're looking at over an hour to the nearest decently sized city.

I never underwrote as far north as Hatch when I was looking but I swear there was a house for sale there recently that was used as an STR and they shared their STR revenue. I can't find it now but maybe try to find the listings for some of the recently listed homes and see if you come across it.

What is the source of this article?

Whatever it is, it doesn't seem to factor in home prices at all.  Yeah, rent in Jackson where you can do $7500/mo in gross rents!  On a property where you have to pay $15,000/mo on the mortgage alone.  What a deal.

I can't get any bookings there.  No idea why.  Properties are booking very well on Airbnb/VRBO, but several properties without so much as an inquiry on BDC.

Not even getting scam offers.  C'mon scammers, am I not good enough for you?!

I think there is a difference between merely "420 is okay" and what the OP is describing here.  Sounds like OP is wanting to go all-in with it, basically theme the whole place out with it (and provide exotic supplies) akin to the way some people do with Airbnb sex dungeons, where essentially the idea is people are seeking it out explicitly and you're ONLY catering to that crowd.  You're okay with families never staying there because you're planning on staying pretty booked with your specific guest avatar.

I suppose it could be worth a try, but I would think the main barrier would just be the avatar of renter you would need.  Without any intent to offend, as I've indulged plenty of times, the avatar of guest that would want an over the top in their face 420 themed place is less likely to be a wealthy crew.  That's not to say there aren't plenty of well to do people that enjoy partaking, but rather that they're less likely to want an over the top in your face place with it.

So for instance, a Colorado ski town where lots of college or just out of college aged kids like to go on ski trips something like this could definitely appeal to them, and there would be LOTS of that type of traveler.  But the problem is that kind of group is usually a very budget conscious group as well.  So even if you can keep occupancy high the ceiling on nightly rate may be limited in a 2-season market with very high home prices.

What market is your STR in?

Breaking even on an STR you have no mortgage on is a pretty poor return relative to what is available out there, even in the current market, especially given that you've got summer 2022 in there which was probably the hottest few months in STR history and may not be repeatable this summer.

As to your question about year 1 vs. future years that mostly has to do with startup costs, so you should be able to subtract that part out and see what to expect going forward. Other than that in a normal market you do generally expect rates/occupancy to increase as you get more reviews and get repeat guests, but that is somewhat canceled out by the notion that you had summer 2022 last year and we may not see that hot of a market again for a while (STR supply/demand really hit a tipping point around Sept 2022).

Absolutely.  Doing things to stand out is definitely the way to go right now.  There was a time during the revenge travel boom where getting an average listing and spending the least out of pocket was a decent way to maximize revenue.  Now it's the opposite, as there is a huge oversupply of average listings and you really need to stand out in terms of amenities and the property itself.

Of course, as more and more people realize that (as many many already have) what was once "stand out" will become "average", and be less advantageous.  We're seeing this a lot in the Disney area where a "regular" home used to be average and a mid-tier themed home was "stand out".  Now I would say a mid tier theme home is "average" and to standout you have to have really over the top theming (which is becoming more and more average by the day).  

For starters, no one is scaling that fast anymore unless they have a bunch of properties from before prices/rates exploded.

Down payments are higher, closing costs are more expensive, cash flow is lower.  Someone just starting out and buying a $500k property right now is going to have a LONG time before that property generates enough income to pay for a $1M property.  A lot longer than 6-12 months.

VRBO's website is just so all over the place, I'm not sure that half the time people have trouble with it, it isn't just because there's something wrong with the website and how it's pushing their listing.

For instance I have 8 properties in the same market.  Practically the same neighborhood.  2 of them get bookings on VRBO regularly.  The other 6 have never had a SINGLE booking on VRBO.  Even when the 20% new listing discount was active, and prices were lower, no bookings.  While 2 similar properties I have practically next door get 2-4 bookings every month on VRBO.  With the same pricing strategies, same photographer, etc.

Quote from @Valerie Budd:

@Paul Wolfson in regards to your question about the 4 bedroom cabin demand I can shed some light.  We are a property manager in the Branson area for vacation rentals since 2005.  We mainly focus on stand alone properties of which many are 4 bedroom cabins.  We are not in Pointe Royale as we offer our guests a unique experience.  We currently manage over 225 properties ranging from 1 bedroom to 12 bedroom vacation rentals.  Our 4 bedroom, depending upon amenities and location in 2022 for only nightly revenue (does not includes cleanings/sales tax/insurance) over $50,000 to $75,000.  We are on target to duplicate this success for 2023 as well. 

I don't really see how this changes anything in regards to his broader point.  Just doing a quick browse it looks like a 4br place somewhat near the lake is typically priced around $600k - $1M (those rocky shores ones you mentioned are $600k and they seem to go up from there).

At those purchase prices $50k - $75k (on the high end) are really pretty poor returns that will likely not cash flow for someone buying at those prices.

How is this even a question?  It boggles my mind that there are people out there that are investing hundreds of thousands of dollars into a niche while being incapable of reading even the most basic reports on that niche.

Every quarterly report is the same. Quarter after quarter. STR demand is up, but STR supply is up more.

Everything happening right now is simple supply and demand. With supply increasing faster than demand, rates and occupancy of individual properties will decline unless your property truly stands out in some way. STR was easy money, everyone saw that and tried to jump in, so supply blew up until it was no longer easy money and it became something you actually have to work for. The same as every other growing investment vehicle ever.

Eventually supply will outpace demand by enough that people will start getting out of the game, supply will drop, and things will balance again.  Then it will tip the other way.  And back.  And over and over again as these things have all throughout history.

It's easy to pick out the ones that will get out and reduce supply.  If someone says "iTs ThE eCoNoMy" they will be the first to go.  Because travel demand has never been higher in all of history.  It blew up to unsustainable levels coming out of covid and somehow, against all odds, has only continued to RISE since then.  Eventually it will pull back, and then the real fun will begin with these people that already think things are too hard when travel demand has never been higher.

One neat trick for tracking travel beyond Airbnb's own earnings reports (which are such an easy guide to what's happening on the platform it's amazing people don't read them) and AirDNA reports (which dumb it down for all of us, yet people still don't read them and make ridiculous conclusions based on anecdotes instead) is to read the earnings reports of credit card companies like Visa, Amex, Mastercard.  They continue to list travel as one of their top performing categories, exceeding their expectations and smashing records every quarter.

So if these folks can't succeed in this during the peak travel demand in all of history, what are things going to look like for them when travel demand actually does have a totally normal and organic pullback/decline?  They're going to quit, and their supply will be out of the picture.

When things aren't going great, there are two types of investors.

1) The kind that rationally examines the market and forces at play, looks at what they're doing and how it relates to that and how they can succeed among that

2) The kind that irrationally blames everyone else (usually politics), throws a hissy fit on social media, and loses money to spite themselves instead of looking at things rationally. 

Shawn Moore actually had my favorite quote about this on his podcast.  "People are quick to give themselves all of the credit when things are going well, and none of the credit when things are going poorly".

IE in the post-covid market where a blind monkey could throw a dart at a house, pop it up on Airbnb, and cash flow extensively, everyone that did as much thought to themselves "Wow I'm really killing it, I'm really good at this!".  Then when the market settled into a more natural place where it's still relatively easy with travel demand very high, but requires a little work and is no longer the easiest way to make money ever those same people are thinking to themselves "well this isn't my fault, I'm not doing anything wrong, it's just impossible in this horrible market!".