All Forum Posts by: Ryan Moyer

It's unlikely that a property manager will increase your revenue by enough to make up their fee (unless you're really bad at it), so if you're looking at it strictly from a returns perspective then you're probably better off self managing.

The question, of course, is how much your time is worth to you.  Because on an hourly basis, your time may or may not be better spent elsewhere.  It's cheaper to walk from the airport to the hotel than take an Uber, but it takes more of your time.

It sounds like you have the means and desire to give self management a try.  So what does it hurt to give it a shot?  Try it, and see if it works for you, or if you'd rather pay a slight premium to not be bothered with midnight clogged toilet calls.  For some people, that's worth saving some extra cash.  For some it ends up not being worth it.  Most people are afraid to even try.  It sounds like you're not, so give it a shot and see how it goes!

 I swear it's something new every quarter.

I think it is based on the account of the person viewing the listing.  For instance if I look at my listing in an incognito chrome window the reviews on my listing show up in a different order than if I view the same listing while logged into Airbnb. 

Windsor Hill's age is not really a problem.  The proximity to Disney makes up for it.  And while their amenities are much smaller than the newer resorts, they did a good job with them such that they look great in listing photos, with the big bright water slides etc.  

Storey Lake's amenity area is much larger and more comprehensive than Windsor's, but Windsor's actually LOOKS better in photos to people scrolling quickly on Airbnb.

Additionally, Windsor's age means it has a reputation, so there are people that seek it out exclusively (IE they don't search for "Orlando" or "Disney", they search for "Windsor Hills").  Maintenance costs are also less becuase you have more international families compared to the other resorts that attract plenty of party locals.  

Lastly, the age their can be a boon at times if you do updates to make the home more modern.  When people search out Windsor you'll be competing against a bunch of people with old 2004 oak cabinets etc, so you can make your place stand out beyond just the theming.  Compared to Storey Lake, Windsor at Westside, etc where everyone is going to have the same modern kitchen, living room, etc.

That said, it's not necessarily my favorite if ROI is a primary concern.

Windsor Hills - Closest "real" resort to Disney.  Quieter, attracts more families, international travelers.  Modestly priced homes but max out at 6br,

Champions Gate - Far from Disney, but most travelers arent savvy enough to know the travel time is further than the map indicates.  Great amenities.  Best acquisition prices here relative to the home you're getting.  If you want to put most of your money into theming, at a lower acquisition price, this is the place.  Like Windsor, there are people that have been coming here for a long time and specifically search out CG.  Much more of a party vibe when you drive through the neighborhood though.

Storey Lake - In between.  Not as close as Windsor, but east of Disney instead of south so you avoid I-4 and actual travel time is much shorter than CG.  New modern houses, much higher prices than CG.  You save a few bucks on the reno as they already come with flex/game rooms instead of having to drywall in the garage like in CG/Windsor.  But your place theming better be awesome here because people are doing these things to the nines.  Also while every neighborhood has it's issues (Windsor has the least), Storey Lake has maybe the most.  I swear the front gate hasn't worked properly in a year and they just don't seem to care to fix it.

Reunion - If you're a baller with $2M+ to spend, this is the place to do it.  You get an actual unique home (not the same thing repeated like the other neighborhoods) and do something special.  But this is a totally different market than all the rest.  If you are looking at the main, real part of Reunion with the $4M custom homes, then you're not considering the other neighborhoods because it may as well be a different city.

Solara - Meh, it's nice.  Small compared to the other behemoths.  Does everything okay, not particularly a standout at anything, so people tend to forget about it.

Solterra - Just don't do it.

Windsor Island/Windsor at Westside - I honestly know less about these resorts than the others, as I only manage one in WI, none at Westside.  My impression is that the returns are not quite as good here, but I don't have hard data on that like many of the other neighborhoods where I own or manage multiple.

Bottom Line - If it were me, I would buy a big place in CG and spend a bunch of money on really really good theming.  Or I would buy in Windsor Hills and try to be one of the top 20 properties there, as location is the one thing you can never change and a thing people will always be looking for.  And don't sleep on the difference in maintenance costs.  These behemoth resorts further from Disney definitely bring in a lot more wear and tear than the kind of visitors typically coming to quiet Windsor.

A place like Storey Lake is really nice, and will do a bit more in revenue, but I don't think enough to justify the cost.  Our themed places in Storey Lake may do 10-15% more in revenue than our themed places in CG/Windsor, but you're talking about a $1M acquisition price on those Storey Lake homes versus $600k-$700k in Champions Gate and Windsor.

Just my $0.02.  I also have a realtor friend (that sold me my house in CG: https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/52612233) that has a lead on a totally different option to get out of the grind of the same home in these resort neighborhoods copied over and over, if you wanted an introduction.

I am both an investor and manager in the Orlando area.  

For a lot of investors Orlando is a really poor choice. For some investors Orlando can be a really good choice. If you have a typical mortgage (80% LTV) It's not a cash flow market unless you are willing to spend extensively on theming/upgrades. With theming, it can be done but you still need to weigh it against the saturation even within the theming submarket, which has exploded.

Regarding your questions

1) Saturation is very real here, and the biggest "problem" for owners by far.  Not just quantity saturation, but quality saturation (the houses are gettting bigger and better, pushing formerly top-end houses down the list into appearing more mediocre by comparison)

This is my property: https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/52612233

Three years ago I would have said it was a 99th percentile property.  Now?  Not even close to that.  But it still makes me good money.  Of course I have a different mortage than you will.  I'm happy to share those numbers.

2) Orlando has already declined quite a bit off of the peak RE values.  The question is where the bottom is.  There's a chance you might be catching it before it bounces back up.  Or a chance it's a falling knife that will keep going.

I bought my property for $568k in 2021. Disregarding the theming (IE just comparing the appraisable size/comps of the home) it probably peaked out at around $900k in value during the RE peak, but is probably worth $650k-$700k now (again disregarding the upgrades). So as you can see, almost back down to where it was before the big RE boom, whereas in most STR markets the homes are still 2x the price they were in early 2021 if not more. So maybe that RE decline that's coming for those markets is already built-in here.

Orlando does offer other major long-term advantages like long term demand (will Broken Bow still be a place people travel to in 10 years?  Maybe.  Will Disney still be a place people travel to in 10 years?  Certainly) and some of the lowest regulation risk in the country so long as you buy in the approved areas.

I'm happy to share real world revenue and theming examples as well.

It's mostly the middle one. SLC doesn't really enforce it very strictly. But it's playing with fire to buy there if STR is a priority as it's very likely they will eventually start enforcing it better.

@Trevor McCormick I have a lot of properties in that area.  If you want some revenue numbers for similar properties to the ones you're looking at or anything to use in underwriting feel free to reach out.  Just make sure you're actually putting pen to paper and doing your due diligence on underwriting.  It's a competitive market and most of the people that get in trouble here are ones that buy blindly without actually figuring out the numbers, etc.

You'd be surprised the number of times I get asked after month one if their electric bill of $xxx or whatever is normal, and the thought running through my head is "how did you not  check things like that before you committed half a million dollars to something?"

If you're doing STR the first thing you'll need is the VLS license from the state, and that comes with the requirement of taking an 8 hour class.

There weren't any of those on the schedule, but I need mine so I talked them into doing one in early February if you want to hop on that one.  It is virtual over zoom but taught live.

Hi Melanie, I both own and manage in the area and to be honest, the market in Kissimmee/Davenport is tough right now unless you're willing to invest a lot of capital into high end theming. 

The area has certain advantages like shelter from regulation risk (pretty much as low as anywhere in the country if you buy in the approved STR tourist zones) and long term security (people aren't going to stop going to Orlando anytime soon). It is a nice safe long-term spot if you're approaching it with a more long-term traditional real estate mindset. But the competition is high so cash flow or even break even can be an unphill battle unless you're willing to put money into the property.

The reality is that this isn't people crashing on the couch while we're out of town anymore.  Most of us are running lodging businesses in areas that are zoned residential.  As long as you're doing that, there's always a risk, and 50 years from now it will probably be illegal everywhere to operate STRs in residential zoning, just like it's illegal to operate a steel mill there.  Every market in residential zoning has an expiration date, we just don't know what it is yet.

The obvious solution is to buy in already regulated areas with tourist/commercial zoning.

The returns are lower, but at least they can't go to zero overnight.