All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

 This works both ways... if you are a long term hold investor, you have no way of telling with absolute certainty, which way the fortunes of a neighborhood will turn 15 years from now. This is another risk with plays that rely excessively on appreciation. 

Within LA, there may be pockets of neighborhoods considered prime locations today, but just as some bad areas often turn good, some good areas can equally turn bad. All sorts of vices can quietly creep into an area -- drugs, crime, violence etc. 

So while you may be aware of the granular details of an area today, and that is important, it doesnt necessarily imply those conditions will remain constant throughout the holding period. It may however be helpful in 'guessing' how an area may fare in the long term.

 There might be plenty of (low wage or underpaying) jobs... the question is, as an investor, before going on an LA property spending spree.. can people afford to buy a simple mid sized house at current prevailing market rates? 

For many, whether using personal or household income, the answer would be no. Even with recent increase in DTI from 45 to 50%. Only about 28%-30% of these trasactions are cash transactions apparently, so most of the sales involve use of debt.

What people seem to believe subjectively is not in line with the factual data. There is a mismatch between current housing price level (including housing price growth rate) and current median wage levels and wage growth rate. 

Its not just an LA issue... many cities also have the problem. The prices in LA and a few CA cities is significantly higher than national average but it median revenue is not proportionally and significantly higher than the national average. There lies the mismatch.

 That sums up the gist of the issue.... its not about number of jobs or even unemployment rate in LA... if the jobs are low wage jobs... you will have a hard time qualifying for a mediocre home in LA which is an issue of concern to me, if I have an inventory of houses to sell in LA. Sure, walmart is one of the largest employers in the country and retail is one of the largest employers nationwide. There however arent many buying a house in LA on a walmart wage. They're usually busy plotting a strike.

 Thats harsh

 I happen to use a different type of spreadsheet called Gnumeric. I guess the data is read differently when posted.

 You sound serious about this... the SD Charges really trying to get a game? It might be necessary before you talk yourself into loosing money or other newbs... I may have to post an analysis for this

 oh you need my social security number too...? how about I just text it to you. 

Those who want to CF know where to go...

Perhaps this might help with some clarity.. in DC you can find no land listed for sale over an acre, in Baltimore, there is quite a few. The largest parcel of land for sale in DC is a 3,768 sqft lot listed for $150,000 or $39 / sqft -- more than the price of an average house in Baltimore; in Baltimore at $3.4 per sqft the same 3,768 lot would trade at $12,778. If land price per sqft in DC is 11+ times the cost in Baltimore, home prices will often mirror a similar pattern.

 Men... you making my ear hurt... what are you crying about again? Sorry what...? Your property aint cash flowing? I told you.... just go through the analysis again, maybe you might eventually understand it.. or not

 Depends on the land, what can be built on it and resulting CF based on strategy... what is in or around the area... so others are thinking about a condo project? If some sort of residential project, you would have to look intensely into the economics of the region to determine feasibility... its not really if it can be built but if it should be. Are you allowed to say exactly where it is?