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All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

Account Closed has started 11 posts and replied 613 times.

Post: Had no idea Californians were spiritual

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Will F.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Matt Mason:

People complain about housing prices and about transplants who they often blame for pushing up prices just like they do just about everywhere else.

 Did you happen to read the LA Weekly article in initial post by chance? Trying to ascertain if you are disagreeing with either the reporter or that there seems to be a consensus that housing prices in LA grows at a rate materially different than income and unsustainable in the long term. 

Mike...Dude... do you know that LA Weekly is an entertainment newspaper? 

 :-]

Back to the reason why being on the ground in the area you invest can be beneficial.

The LA Times isn't saying anything different... it actually sounds much worse from their view

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-ho...

Post: Had no idea Californians were spiritual

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

You can be comfortable in LA on a normal salary. You just have to have different priorities than most people. If you are the kind of person that needs a new car and a big house you will be miserable in this city unless you make a ton of money. But if you are the active type that would rather spend your free time at the beach, working out, scuba diving, road biking, hiking, surfing etc then this is paradise. The funnest things to do in Cali are free.

 lol... I guess it depends on what you define to be decent income. Investors in LA then would primarily be targeting married couples for the most part it seems. An unmarried single person may be feeling the pinch the most. 

At current prices and a minimum 20% down... and 4.5% mortgage, you would need to make in excess of  $100,000 to 'qualify' based on the assumption that housing cost/expense should often not exceed 30% of income. 

The median personal income in LA last time I checked was no where near that.

Median Home Price LA               $749,000.00
Down Payment 20%               $149,800.00
Loan Amount               $599,200.00
Mortgage Payment (month)                   $3,036.06
Required Income (month)                 $10,120.19
Yearly Salary Required              $121,442.34

Post: Had no idea Californians were spiritual

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Joe J.:
Originally posted by @Dylan Vargas:

@Account Closed Don't get the tag line. At any rate I have a friend as we speak living in a 1 bedroom apartment. She is a single Mom with 4 kids. She works full time and pays 1100 per month for the roach place. I have been researching the past 5 days trying to find her at least a 2 bedroom. Said friend only makes $13 per hour. There really is no hope in site. I am trying to convince her to pick up and move. Unless she moves to the desert she will continue this struggle. The drawback to moving is she will not have a job and people will not lease to her without income. Even with a decent raise she will have a tough go of it in a 2 bedroom. The prices are insane for bad areas. When I lived in Hollywood in the 90s there were plenty of places to move and afford. Crazy prices now and I feel for the people. I have lived in California and other states. You never make twice the money as people think unless industry specific. I made more in Michigan at times than California with not near the cost of living.

The cost of living in Los Angeles is quite high.  The silver lining for your friend may be the government subsidies provided in California (specifically Los Angeles) are considerably more material than other areas.  I would make sure she takes full advantage of WIC, SNAPS and other State assistance programs.  There should be some housing assistance as well considering she's a single mother with 4 children.  Your friend sounds like the perfect candidate to take advantage of many of the state/city-wide programs.  Best of luck to her.

 Not sure if her family situation gives her some sort of priority with some of the housing programs specifically... it is not uncommon to have housing waitlist in the 5 year range in some cities.

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Paige Marie:

WoW . . . As someone born and raised in Baltimore, it kills me to see people comment so abrasively when their only exposure to the city is what they've seen on television or read on the internet.  Yes, it is true the city suffers from both abandoned and vacant housing and that this is a major concern and problem, as it is in most major cities, but that picture is laughable at best.  Do your homework; major revitalization is in the works and the remaining vacants don't fit into the new plan.  They're being turned into green space, torn down, or scooped up.   As investors, these are things we need to be aware of, as there are areas in Baltimore where $40k properties are now worth half a mil . . . go figure.  Heck, that's why many of these properties are in such poor condition; owners/investors refuse to sell waiting for the uptick.  It's sickening, but that's another rant. 

It's also true that in Baltimore, as in most major cities, you can find the worst of the worst, as well as the crème de la crème within miles of one another.  While two tenants should always be easier to manage than 12, at $1,395 that's considered middle class here, requiring less management and fewer headaches.  Contrary to opinion and belief, not every Baltimore City resident is poor, on drugs, irresponsible or a management headache, and you don't have to be in the trendy newer areas, to find a stable neighborhood, just have to know where to look. 

As a new investor (still waiting on that first deal), I struggle with whether to play it safe and seek these stable neighborhoods, or go for the properties with lower cost of entry that I know will pose a larger headache.  But for me, it's personal, always will be, it's not just about appreciation or cap rates, but also an investment in my city, and there's no shame in that.  I'm thinking I'll pursue both and I'd advise any serious investor to do the same.  Just my .02

 Hey there... it appears you are a realtor. So it does seem it isnt 'illegal' to work with wholesalers in Baltimore per what I am hearing. Sure seems like there are some revitalization plans also.

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @DL Martin:
Originally posted by @Ned Carey:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Baltimore had an excellent Chief of Police (or whatever they call it there) in Tony Batts. And Baltimore chased him out. That tells me everything I need to know about the City of Baltimore. The "last mayor" that you refer to above was a real piece of work and one of the main reasons that Tony was fired.  

Real piece of work huh? So what then would be your take on the City of Baltimore... anti business, anti growth or perhaps just plain anti police? 

:) lol @ fake news... sounds like a new vocab of sorts.

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Andrew Stephens:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Brad Cogswell:

And spillage into Baltimore definitely is happening in certain areas.

I suspect that to be the case... there seems to be at least 8 major towns with a population of 200,000 or more in at least 5 different  cluster of states near Baltimore and with housing prices and rent significantly higher than Baltimore's from DC, Jersey, Newark, Virginia Beach etc; DCs economy seems to be quite robust... at $555,000 median value buying activity seems to be quite robust.

 Spillage into Baltimore will eventually raise housing prices, but what concerns me are: 

(1) the amazing quantity of empty houses (16,000+)

(2) the slow rate of disposing of the empty houses (how many abandoned homes have been rehabbed or torn down in the past 5 years?)

and 

(3) the large number of houses for sale.

All of these are going to drag on appreciation and rent increases for a long time.

Look at the Zillow maps below to give you a relative sense of the number of houses for sale  in Baltimore (pop. 595,000) and Washington, DC (pop 670,000).  These screenshots show the number of houses for sale at less than $150,000 in each city, and between $150,000 and $300,000 in each city:

So Baltimore has 1,455 homes for sale at less than $150,000, while DC has 12 homes for sale in that price range:

In the $150,000 to $300,000 range, we see a similar contrast:

Baltimore has 734 homes for sale in the $150-$300,000 range, while DC has 41 for sale:

These visual comparisons illustrate that Baltimore is oversupplied with inexpensive homes, while DC essentially has no affordable homes for sale (many of the less than $300,000 listings are auctions or very small houses in disrepair).

It's currently a buyer's market for low priced homes in Baltimore, but with so many vacant homes and so many homes for sale, it looks like it will be a buyer's market for several years. 

 That is what I thought initially... that the population leakage of sorts would be a drag on price growth and it probably can be argued that it has had some effect on Baltimore prices but when I look at the data.. Baltimore's housing price has been growing by an average of 4.8% per year for last 35 years or so when you look at historical hpi data published by the federal reserve. That ist too shabby a growth rate compared to national average. So if with its population trend and high vacancy zombie homes, it has been growing at that rate... there is something unusual about the market it seems. The inventory of homes for sale also may not necessarily reflect proportioally rental listings at a particular time though or does it?

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Andrew Stephens:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

HUD publishes an estimate of fair market rent data to give a sense of what the Section 8 program pays. For Maryland, that data shows these results for 2017 which show a 3 BR rent to be $1,769:

 Thank you very much... this is awesome information. 

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

I will put 1.5 MM as a downpayment for a building, not to buy houses.

 If the $1.5mil down is 25% of value that would be a $6mil purchase. Is this a purchase in Baltimore or elsewhere?

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Jason Goretzki:

@Account Closed :  2 things 

1.) Glad to see Baltimore getting some love.  There is growth here in some areas, & I see a lot of continued potential for the city.

2.) What can I do to help?!  If you go with Baltimore I would love to be involved!

Originally posted by @Mike Fletcher:

Building like that are not that difficult to find here. 

 So you reside in Baltimore it seems correct? You can send request to connect to discuss. In and around the Port of Baltimore, what level of residential or commercial activity are you noticing?

Post: Had no idea Californians were spiritual

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Thomas S.:

Most people live where they do and how they live by choice. ..

 Interesting... it sounds like the market there in most Canadian metros cooled or is cooling significantly and forecast is for prices to be down next year. The are serious concerns about a similar cooling here in some areas. The government here though didnt go as far as enacting new special taxes to levy on foreign investors as a way of reducing foreign investor buying activity, which apparently is what was blamed for (among other things) the inflated housing price trend in Toronto, Vancouver etc.. Toronto residents probably had or have similar concerns about income growth not tracking home price escalations in Vancouver and Toronto.