Originally posted by @Derek Daun:
Looks like Joe beat me to it as I was typing out my answer.
Rough number comparison:
Midwest strategy
- Invest 30k in the Midwest. Leverage 5:1 with 80% loans = Three 50k houses for total purchase price of $150k. Mortgages = 120k. You make $100/door after expenses. In five years your loan will be down to about 111k, and your properties might be worth 160k. Equity = (160k - 111k) = 49k. Add in the 18k in profits, and you're up to 67k in capital. Cash over cash ROI = (67-30)/30 = 123%. Not bad, about 17.5% annual ROI. That assumes you're hitting 100/door number. And you might not.
Sacramento
- Same 30k investment. Leverage 5:1 and get one 150k property. Rent for 1300/month. Don't plan on guaranteeing any cash flow right away, but it will pay for expenses. You should be able to generate more cash later as rents are likely to continue to increase. In five years that property is worth 200k. (Annual 6% increase). Mortgage also = 111k. Equity = 89k, Cash over cash ROI = 196%, about 24% annual ROI.
But isn't this if everything goes as planned in the sunny state of California? How about some worst case scenario math?
California prices are near the peak right now or close to where they were in 06-07. Cost of houses have doubled in most counties in last 5-6 years and we all know that average income hasn't doubled in that time. How will this growth sustain without income growth? Not saying, the market will crash (it can though) but it could very easily stop to grow anymore and then you are looking at a whole different comparison which could look something like this (assuming appreciation is pretty much the same in both markets)
Midwest strategy
- Invest 30k in the Midwest. Leverage 5:1 with 80% loans = Three 50k houses for total purchase price of $150k. Mortgages = 120k. You make $100/door after expenses. In five years your loan will be down to about 111k, and your properties might be worth 160k. Equity = (160k - 111k) = 49k. Add in the 18k in profits, and you're up to 67k in capital. Cash over cash ROI = (67-30)/30 = 123%. Not bad, about 17.5% annual ROI. That assumes you're hitting 100/door number. And you might not.
Sacramento strategy
- Same 30k investment. Leverage 5:1 and get one 150k property. Rent for 1300/month. Don't plan on guaranteeing any cash flow right away, but it will pay for expenses.
You should be able to generate more cash later as rents are likely to continue to increase. In five years that property is worth 160k (200k). (Annual 6% increase). Mortgage also = 111k. Equity = 49k 89k, Cash over cash ROI = 63% 196%, about 9.00% 24% annual ROI.
Now, i understand saying California home prices will not appreciate at all in next 5 years is not fair but so is assuming they will continue to climb by 6% year after year, so lets meet in middle here, shall we? Assuming California home prices are up by 3%. Fair enough?
Midwest strategy
- Invest 30k in the Midwest. Leverage 5:1 with 80% loans = Three 50k houses for total purchase price of $150k. Mortgages = 120k. You make $100/door after expenses. In five years your loan will be down to about 111k, and your properties might be worth 160k. Equity = (160k - 111k) = 49k. Add in the 18k in profits, and you're up to 67k in capital. Cash over cash ROI = (67-30)/30 = 123%. Not bad, about 17.5% annual ROI. That assumes you're hitting 100/door number. And you might not.
Sacramento strategy
- Same 30k investment. Leverage 5:1 and get one 150k property. Rent for 1300/month. Don't plan on guaranteeing any cash flow right away, but it will pay for expenses. In five years that property is worth 173k. (Annual 3% increase)
. Mortgage also = 111k. Equity =23k, Cash over cash ROI = 77% 196%, about 10% 24% annual ROI.
We are still looking at Midwest to be better strategy. Now, most of us know, we can all make this argument in favor of what/where we want to invest but in order to see 6% Appreciate every year for next 5 years, we will have to get very lucky here. I mean, look at this chart, this will look one scary chart in 2021 after 6% growth every year in California.
Just my 2 cents.