All Forum Posts by: Jeff Warner

I would advise if you get a "deal" sent to you that is clearly not a deal to let them know that it is NOT a deal and explain why...who knows, maybe you'll be the guy that kicks them in the butt and forces them to actually learn the business.

Jeff

I'm a Wholesaler and I agree with Eddie...What that guy is doing is not Wholesaling. The value of a good Wholesaler is his ability to find properties that other people are not aware of and present those deals to someone at a fair price.

Like Nick said, there are too many people looking at the home as their next goldmine...not exactly a smart way to build rapport and establish yourself as a go-to guy for discounted properties.

Jeff

Originally posted by Eric W:

What's the difference between getting a property under contract with the intent to market to flippers vs landlords?

Obviously if the price is right, both will be interested. Should I stick with my formula (ARV * .70 - repair costs (including fudge factor) - my profit) to come up with what I want to get the property under contract for at all times or should I run it from a landlords perspective as well?

When marketing the property, should I market it as what the potential flipper can make and let the landlord figure out the numbers for himself, or should I market it was both perspectives?

A deal is a deal and if you get it under contract using the math as stated above you'll have interest from rehabbers and land lords.

One thing you don't want to do is try and calculate their profit margin on a flip, IMO this doesn't make any sense and I'll tell you why. Some people over rehab and some under rehab. Some may use Granite for the counters when it should have Formica, others might put in carpet when they should put in hardwood floors.

The point is, even if you know that the home is in a lower end area there is no telling what your buyer plans to do. For this reason, I recommend you inspect the property for the major repairs (foundation, hvac, roof, etc.) and come up with a ball park estimate for repairs and welcome them to do their own inspection and calculating.

Jeff

Originally posted by Danielle C.:

I'm new and so my questions are still basic, however I'm learning so much every day. I really appreciate those with experience who are taking the time to answer these question.

Thanks!
Danielle C.

Danielle,

Glad to help. Feel free to post anything on this forum that might be unclear to you, there are no stupid questions. Also,if you have questions there is certainly others on here thinking the same thing and looking for answers. I definitely don't have all the answers but I do enjoy helping out when I can.

Jeff

You know what worries me Rich? The fact that a knucklehead like me can get a grasp on this stuff and have an idea about what's going on...that leads me to believe that this is all orchestrated by some very smart and powerful men.

I'm not worried into a panic state but I am concerned. I have faith that God is truly in control but I do sense some tough times ahead for those that are not prepared.

Jeff

Originally posted by Rich Weese:

bump for monday morn. Last sentence is asking if anyone can remember a time where a perfect storm is forming. Anyone have other bad times input? Rich

I'll take a stab at it Rich. There is a lot going on right now in our country and the world and I don't think any one comparison will fit perfectly with the current problems we face as a nation.

These days I hear people compare what is going on in the US to 1920's Germany and their Weimar Republic. I agree that there are similarities here but mainly when speaking of Fiat currency and printing massive amounts of it. Another similarity is that Germany, prior to forming the Weimar Republic had massive debt on the books from World War 1, a war in which they lost. With a 12 trillion dollar national debt and climbing you can see the similarities but I think we have them beat on that one. Just the interest of the US national debt alone is approx. $27 billion a month.

The problem I see here is many fold. After the great depression the US still had manufacturing, steel, the auto industry, etc. In other words we had demand and huge exports. Today, we are consumers. Even the best and brightest Entrepreneurial minds are not going to dive into a big venture with things like Cap and Trade looming. I'm not trying to make this post political, just pointing to the facts. For the record though, I think both sides are to blame.

With no fiscal responsibility in Washington, the possibility of Cap and Trade passing, as well as Health care and every other entitlement program they can think of...I feel our problem is very unique. There are other examples of govt. collapse such as Rome in the 300's (that was currency debasing), France did it twice in the 1700's, Argentina in the 1990's, and most recently in Zimbabwe. IMO, all of those examples just don't quite fit what is going on here.

These are just basic explanations as there is more to all of this. I'm definitely NOT an expert on these topics but I have been studying them for a while mainly because I want to know WTF is going on. Anyone else have input here?

Jeff

The reason I made my recommendation was mainly because of this question:

Checking with the county to see if they bought anything recently will answer that question without relying on the BS that they might tell you.

I see one of two problems here:

A - They are not actively investing.

or

B - Her deals don't meet their criteria.

Doing your own research will get to the bottom of it. Besides, you'll learn in detail what they are doing and how much (approx) profit they are making on the deals if they are buying right now. Personally, I think this is a much better way to go about it because there is no assumption of "are they still buying?" And she won't continue down the same path of sending them deals that they don't reply to. Make sense?

Be sure to vote for any post that is helpful :wink:

Jeff

Originally posted by Rich Weese:

I read an article today that makes me more nervous about a recovery.Associated Press--
Inflation adjusted wages rose till about May 2008. It hit $18.53 or $8.65 in 1982 adjusted rate. Since then, the rate according to Labor dept has dropped to $8.54, a drop of 1.3%.
Here is my question for the smart folks on here. What was the average priced home price in 1982? Another words, what would $8.65 qualify you for? Compared to todays price of average home? You have to have people qualify with the average wage for the average home, or I see no recovery.
"The resulting wage depression caused an economic scarrring of the labor force." For example, the inflation- adjusted wages stagnated for 4 years after the 1991 downturn. They also remained flat from 2002 to 2005 after the mild recession of 2001. What will be the result after we muddle through the mess we're in now?
The question seems to be, how can you have a housing recovery if wages stay flat or low, lenders won't loan and people have a hard time qualifying? Enen when the unemployed find jobs, they're being forced to take much lower pay, if they can even find a job. Somewhere around 6 applicants for each available job, and wages are averaging 25% less, if you're lucky enough to be offered a job. Rich

Rich,

Great post. I think the only people that truly believe that we're well on our way to a recovery are the un-informed. I hadn't thought about the angle that you've brought up from this article but it is definitely more then just something to ponder, it is a serious problem.

I did a quick search on google and found this site:

[/url]http://www.realestateabc.com/graphs/natlmedian.htm[url]

According to that site, the median home price in 1982 was $67,800. Data for 2009 is all over the map, depending what site you read. CNN Stated that in the first quarter of 2009 National Median home price was at $169,000, other sites report as high as $250k but don't show when the data was collected. As 2010 goes on I assume we'll see more accurate data from 2009.

I know in my area values (with few exceptions) are back to what they we're in 1989 and that is not adjusting for inflation. Considering the truth about the job market as well as inflation that is bound to show up at some point I believe we are in for one wild ride.

Jeff

Originally posted by Nemi Weeks:

What about an MLS listing where the ADOM (agent DOM) is higher than the CDOM? For example: ADOM = 262 and CDOM = 58 (an actual listing). How could this be?

It says ADOM and CDOM? All the listings I get say DOM and CDOM. I don't know why it would be backwards like that, Agent DOM seems to me like it should be the CDOM. I would take the 262 days as if it was the Total days on market regardless of what it says. I see your an agent? Can't you just go back in the MLS and see when it was first listed?

Jeff

Good Job Terry.

Jeff