All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

Quote from @Michael Baum:

I don't disagree with you @John Carbone, but not everyone on here is lying about their success.

I guess the lesson learn from all of this is that, when someone writing the book, they should also write disclaimer and warning or even cons why they should not invest in such and such.

There're just too many "author" wrote picture-perfect situation without describing the risk for particular asset class.

This happened not just for STR, but also for syndication, LTR, notes etc etc...

I don't disagree with you @John Carbone, but not everyone on here is lying about their success.

I feel this post was a personal attack on 2 people specifically and others secondarily. Like those folks are personally responsible for others lack of success or bad judgement.

I think we go out of our way to help people who ask to look at their numbers and give them an honest assessment.

For us, we are doing about the same as we had in the last 3 years. Occupancy and nightly rates are the same. Maybe I am under on the nightly. My look at the competition says I am a good deal, but not crazy cheap so I am sticking with it.

We are looking at a beach SFH here in WA state. I said I would never invest here, but this place popped up and is a working STR that needs updating. Even with the interest rates where they are, it is still a profitable place.

Based on what it has done in 2023 to date, it is doing about the same as 2022 numbers. Which for us would mean about a 12% ROI when everything is said and done if we didn't do a thing.

I estimate about 25k to take it into the modern era. That would mean a decent increase in nightly rate. We will see how it goes.

I believe that if you find the right deal you can still do OK with a STR in this market. It will take work and searching to find one.

So saying that it is foolish to buy anything today isn't correct. You have to work at it.

I am guessing that you would advise that everyone simply stop investing until things change for the better, no matter what the asset class is. For some folks, that could be the answer. For others, they could push forward by hunting. Maybe that has a lot to do with experience.

Anyways, I just don't like personal attacks (which this was no matter what is said).

Hello BP, I’ve got a question I’m hoping some seasoned investors can help or give their insight . I just finished a pool cabin 4 bedroom 6 bathrooms . 4200 sq feet in gatlinburg with theatre , sauna , steam shower arcade indoor heated pool. Appraisal. Location is great , view is good and overall I like the cabin but the situation is :

950k mortgage at 8% . So mortgage sits around 7k without taxes .Just got our appraisal and looking at comps realistically 800-900 equity currently . We did the build ourselves so we saved alot of money but I don’t think I’d sell and build again just do to the headache of workers in the area . The lender thinks we’d get around 15-18k a month gross but I’d be hopeful to get closer to 12k average given current market conditions . 

Just had our first baby and looking to simplify my life a little so taking the equity and doing something back in Georgia is tempting . Thank you all for any insight .

Well @Joe S., it was pretty obvious where you attribute things.

Based on all the posts that come in here from new folks, I will say that the YouTube and TikTok "experts" seem to have more sway on things that anyone else.

I have no idea why you decided to post this. You blame 2 particular members and then go on to say the rest of us are lying about how we are doing if we are doing just fine.

Some of us just come in here and try to help others. If that means some extra competition, so be it.

You act like no one else has a brain of their own and they couldn't come up with the idea of doing a STR unless they were influenced by someone else. Some folks just figured they could give it a shot and bought in. Then they come here to find out how to get it going. Seems like a very common occurrence.

I am just going to stop typing now as I am pretty irritated. It was a dick move on your part.

Hello BP, I’ve got a question I’m hoping some seasoned investors can help or give their insight . I just finished a pool cabin 4 bedroom 6 bathrooms . 4200 sq feet in gatlinburg with theatre , sauna , steam shower arcade indoor heated pool. Appraisal. Location is great , view is good and overall I like the cabin but the situation is :

950k mortgage at 8% . So mortgage sits around 7k without taxes .Just got our appraisal and looking at comps realistically 800-900 equity currently . We did the build ourselves so we saved alot of money but I don’t think I’d sell and build again just do to the headache of workers in the area . The lender thinks we’d get around 15-18k a month gross but I’d be hopeful to get closer to 12k average given current market conditions . 

Just had our first baby and looking to simplify my life a little so taking the equity and doing something back in Georgia is tempting . Thank you all for any insight .

Quote from @Joe S.:

So my question is, did all the excessive bragging about short term rentals create saturation to the point where it hurt everybody including the braggers?
I understand there are some people that were bragging because they actually listed properties. They even wrote a book about short term rentals and in the book toward the end, it is clear that they are doing lots of other things other than Short term rentals, but they are making a lot of money by selling the dream as well as selling properties. When someone insinuates that the market could be softening, why does many  operators  go out of their way to go into denial and pretend like they’re doing great? Why so many people make an effort to create excessive competition for themselves?

Just a thought. Please don’t beat me up too bad.

Sir. Throwing shade at someone’s accomplishments is just not smart. The book I assume you’re referring to was a huge success for bigger pockets and changed many lives. I’m sure the boss will be along soon. You asked for it. I would assume it’s coming. 

What I want to know is where were you when we were shouting from the rooftops that you could rent a vacation home without a lease and no one believed us?  

I was with you until you mentioned the book. It’s not her fault people took to YouTube and said a bunch of crap 

My new luxury pool cabin with a view is on pace for amazing numbers this year and I’m in the process of building another one.  I can’t imagine a scenario where these top performing cabins tank.  I think it’s about the mediocre middle as stated before that will be hit hard.  If you buy and build right (for recession) I think you’re good.  At least that’s my assumption and I hope I’m right because I am heavily leveraged.    One thing I noticed is, big view lots under $170k are still getting scooped up in less than 24 hours with multiple offers.    I was talking to a local investor this week who stated the industry/market is always driven by the cycle of riding in the new car vs the old.  If you have a newer or “updated” cabin you’re going to be alright and do fairly well.  If you own aN older status quo property, you might update it and add extra amenities to stay current.  The economy exacerbates this realization.  I’m seeing the huge storm coming (foreclosures) but I don’t believe we are going to be close to other crashes.  Too much money and foreign investors have entered this market.  I think the bottom will be much higher $$ than people believe.  I think unemployment will be the number we should all watch.  If people aren’t making money, they aren’t vacationing.  I’m not worried about saturation either.  I just got the latest numbers from Sevier County, and believe it or not, we are still in the negative with cabins built since the 2016 fires.  The area, activities, entertainment, etc are increasing at a fast pace and new cabin builds are in balance with the amount of visitors coming to the area. 

Make yourself unique, update your cabin, get creative and hang on….

There are plenty of lending options for short-term rentals both conventional and non-conventional that are lending well under 10% interest. For example, I know for DSCR rates for short-term rentals currently, rates are typically anywhere from mid-7's to low 9's on a 30 yr note.