I understand that the math currently works out to bigger is better, I just don't trust these valuations long term. Not saying it's going to happen, but recession comes and the bigger units are going to get hit the hardest initially. I still think in a worst case scenario having a modern 1 bedroom will still have a floor of close to $100 even in a recession. It's also targeting different groups. Post Covid will the top 5% income travelers continue to come to the Smokies, or will they do more Caribbean/city/international travel. that is a risk I'm not willing to take in this market. I do think though that there will always be the subset of people that will always go to the smokies for the nature and the park/trails, and those people tend to be couples 20-50s that want alone time in a modern cabin, in a nice natural setting, and they will always choose that over even a nicer hotel room.
And it may be the case that I am wrong, but its a hedge to me. At record valuations, I'd rather have more properties at a lower pricing point with a good product.
Also, I think the "floor" for lodging in general is going to go up significantly and will probably never dip below $100 again. The amount of inflation and wage increases at the lower end is only going to increase. $15 minimum wage is pretty much baked in already and that wage inflation is not going away. This means more people having the means to travel and I want to be able to target this new group of travelers.