All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

Home values need to drop 50 percent and some still will not be good investments, that’s how misaligned this market is right now. 

By next year, most “houses” that were converted to short term rentals will no longer be rentable as a short term rental, owners will be better off selling or renting long term, even if it’s at a loss it will be less of a loss than leaving empty or selling.

cabins that have been pillaged and not maintained will likely not rent short term except during peak times, perhaps 30 percent occupancy. Someone will need to fix them up, but unless prices drop 50 percent it won’t be worth it for an investor to renovate. 

A lot of new construction also just looks awful and not built for this market. Too many people got way too crafty and built new luxury “cabins” similar to that of a trendy Silicon Valley style home, and that’s just not the market here, those places will take huge haircuts.

also the pool cabin pumpers during Covid did exceptionally well when kids were doing school from home and there was a lot of demand year round for pools in off peak times…now those pool cabins sit empty because kids are in school and people aren’t willing to pay a premium to stay so the place sits unoccupied. All of this was very predictable, but unfortunately only a few here were able to see this 2-4 years ago. A memorable reply I recall  from a pumper here back then was “I wont let you rain on my parade” … well now it’s a tsunami coming inland and it doesn’t care about your feelings. 

This thread just needs some optimistic positive thinking….where is Luke Carl at to fire everyone back up? 

Anecdotal for sure, but all 8 of my listings currently qualify and have the “new badge” and I noticed the badge earlier in the week when I looked at my listings. I had a massive surge in bookings this week across all of my properties,not sure if that is why, but I’m not complaining. 

I have both varieties, I enjoy the longer stays of the "vacation rentals" whereas my "just an STR" enjoys higher occupancy, less guest questions during stay, and overall more profitable.

 I’ve been debating going through setting up my own site for self booking, but everyone I talk to says vast majority book through the platforms. I can’t justify the effort to get it started up. 

I’ve been pretty critical of the smokies this year, but my numbers have done pretty well. October is 90 percent across 7 rentals. Revenue is down slightly from last year single digit percent decline. Thanksgiving and Christmas have booked at same high prices as last year on the larger property. I do believe it is a tale of two worlds here though. Some are doing well, and there are also a lot of people that are struggling badly. The mediocre and mid range cabins are the ones getting destroyed right now. 2-3 bedroom cabins primarily especially when people paid 500k for them. Anywhere between 1000-1800 square feet is the trap range. My basis is really low so the numbers work for me. 

Here is where I think people have a disconnect…if you have a poor performing STR, why would someone else pay to buy you out and have it as a STR themselves?

I like the cleaning fee. I pay out 90 percent to my cleaner and the other is for linens and small items that come up. It’s good transparency with the cleaner too. 

Carolyn fuller may be getting nervous in Boston right about now. Will not be surprised if this type of regulation makes its way into other major cities. She loves big city regulations as a STR operator.