All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

Would you say that revenue for June and July is similar to last year or down assuming you didn’t have the cancellation?

I’m hearing from a lot of people that they have a bottom line number before they will just let it sit. If there are enough hold outs, new construction may become non existent and it may just be a few years of poorer performance. The long run will play out very well but it’s going to take some medicine to get to the other end.

I started using handy central for my cabins. The service has been excellent and I just had two items fixed that saved me a lot of money, one with a septic tank being clogged and some mold issues in a crawl space, saved a lot of money compared to other companies as well. 

 Update….the no reserve auction completed and the property sold for $505k. After commissions and everything these people took a 700-800k loss in under two years. 

my guess is this was bought for 1.2 mil as a 1031 exchange “to save taxes” these people got in over their heads and needed to liquidate for quick cash to cover debt on another investment. Pretty soon these will be happening with bank owned properties again, and expect the same 50-70 percent haircuts to a bidder as that is the actual true market value right now. 

all price appreciation since 2020 has been wiped out of this market, it’s just going to take some time to work its way through the system. Logically this makes sense too, revenues are starting to reflect 2019 rental numbers and cost to borrow is higher than 2019 as well. 

Hopefully the people who bought in 2020-2023 get wiped out and liquidated quickly and builders can go bankrupt and then we can get the market back to normalcy quickly. The faster stuff like this happens the better off for the long term and less new supply will come to market. 

 What is your occupancy like for May on the pool cabins?

Drove around downtown gatlinburg to look at some “premier” new construction properties that are for sale. These things are all stacked up on the same block and look absolutely awful, nothing close that resembles this market. But….if you’re willing to pay 2x or more of what it’s worth…they are advertising “owner financing” as shown below…no appraisal needed! If anyone wishes to engage in these owner financing “deals”  try to get a negative interest rate from them 😂 

This one looks like an oversized garage with a loft on top 

I think this makes sense and my comment was more geared towards the mansion cabins with pools that need to rent for $500+ a night when there is no demand for that 7 months of the year (except during Covid). They need to drop probably down to $250 but they can’t/wont do that and the cleaning fees and cost to operate the pools prevents them from doing so. There are always exceptions to the rule, but most people on here bought during Covid and a lot of pool cabins (big ones) have been empty most of the season except during spring break.