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All Forum Posts by: Jerry Shen

Jerry Shen has started 6 posts and replied 113 times.

Post: Buying RE with Bitcoin

Jerry ShenPosted
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 114
  • Votes 99
Originally posted by @James Green:

I do think some of your points are outdated though. No one  (aside from ideologues) seriously considers bitcoin a currency anymore, and there are secure ways to store your bitcoin using hardware wallets but it's tough to convince normal people to do it which I think will hamper it's adoption. And as far as the darkweb you do realize every transaction is recorded on the public blockchain right? Here is one of mine, I can't hide if I wanted to anyone with a browser can look: https://blockchain.info/tx/4705d24ddac8f5fa4c82170...

Any time any one wants to spend bitcoin on anything he basically needs to announce it to the entire world...

So anyone who uses bitcoin for illegal purposes is not the sharpest tool in the shed. =) It's literally the most transparent and traceable transaction medium mankind has ever seen lol

The transaction can be traced, but not the person. That's what makes it popular in the underground & one of the reasons why the banks don't accept it. Granted, once I know you as an individual are tied to a transaction, then I can see what you have done in the past and any future transactions. But I first have to positively identify the person with a certain transaction. The block chain being public is irrelevant, if I can't do that.

BTW, hardware wallets are insecure as well, just a little bit harder to crack into than the software based ones. Mainly because the opportunity to break into it, should not be available as much, as a software wallet. 

FYI, my day job "might be" focused around LEGALLY breaking into things out on the interwebs.

But any time you want to convert that crypto into fiat you have to go through an exchange. And all exchanges have to comply with the same KYC laws that any financial institution does (you should know that based on your day job). So yeah, if you ONLY transact in crypto you can stay anonymous but as you yourself said crypto is NOT a valid currency which I completely agree with.

Post: Buying RE with Bitcoin

Jerry ShenPosted
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 114
  • Votes 99
Originally posted by @J South:

@Jerry Shen I apologize if this is a repeat of info or if it constitutes an "application" that you don't trust, but your thread prompted me to locate Propy.com, whose website says "Propy allows buyers, sellers, brokers, and escrow/title agents/notaries to come together through the utilization of a suite of smart contracts on blockchain to facilitate transactions."  I have no stake in anything crypto, thus appreciate the interesting thread and feedback from all.

 I do not trust smart contracts at this point. Impossible to tell which are scams and which are real and which have idiots writing the code.

Post: Denver Market Softening/Retreat

Jerry ShenPosted
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 114
  • Votes 99

@Chris Lopez yeah I'm not trying to predict the future either didn't mean it that way. But boom/bust cycle of RE closely follows boom/bust business cycle. It's an inevitable consequence of a credit based inflationary economy. This is by design and you can look back to 1800 to see it. Some crashes are worse than others (1929 and 2007) but the cycle is there nonetheless. Impossible to predict timing, but it's a matter of when not if based on data.

Post: Denver Market Softening/Retreat

Jerry ShenPosted
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 114
  • Votes 99

@Scott Trench @Account Closed Anecdotes are limited in usefulness, I like to look at numbers. 

I think case-schiller index has been very useful in predicting residential real estate cycles in the past. The Denver numbers don't look too great historically.

The 18 year boom/bust cycle in our economy also works like clockwork back to the 1800s so if I were a betting man I would definitely bet on history repeating itself shortly. https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/great...

Post: Denver Market Softening/Retreat

Jerry ShenPosted
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 114
  • Votes 99
Originally posted by @Luke F.:
Originally posted by @Jerry Shen:

I work with some large property management companies on the front range and I asked them about this recently. They all say most of the smart money is staying on the sidelines waiting for a correction. One large PM company in Denver hired a VP of acquisitions and he hasn't bought anything in 2 years. These companies serve some of the largest individual investors in the front range so I'm inclined to agree. I bought a property in the Springs this year and I'd love to own in Denver but I'm personally waiting for a correction. A lot of signs are pointing that way including flattening rents and increasing vacancies.

 How has the property in the Springs worked out for you so far?

I've only had it for a few months so too early to tell. I think Springs is definitely not as hot as Denver but I think there is definitely spillover effect. If there is a correction I think Springs will be hit worse. I bought for cashflow so I'm not that concerned if a correction hits, but definitely still worrisome.

Post: Buying RE with Bitcoin

Jerry ShenPosted
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 114
  • Votes 99
Originally posted by @Jim Goebel:

I read a WSJ article about this.

Personally I have no interest in bitcoin.  My main reasoning:

Money is often defined in terms of the three functions or services that it provides.Money serves as a medium of exchange, as a store of value, and as a unit of account. Medium of exchange. Money's most important function is as a medium of exchange to facilitate transactions.

For none of these 3 things does Bitcoin pass the sniff test - some might say it might be in the future - I don't buy it.

I'm selling the stuff.  The other thing that creeps me out is the anarchic bent of many of the evangelizers.  In some circles you will be ostracized/labeled any number of bad things by saying anything bad about bitcoin.

Bitcoin literally does all three things you are describing. The only reason that it can't really be used as currency right now are the fees are too high because it's running into scaling issues, and the volatility is preventing anyone from trusting it as a day to day currency. Both of these have very smart people working on it so I'm still bullish. But even if it never supplants money I think it will certainly supplant gold and silver as a store of value, and do it very soon.

Post: Buying RE with Bitcoin

Jerry ShenPosted
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 114
  • Votes 99
Originally posted by @Devin Beverage:

It’s funny you should ask. I saw a condo for sale in the Miami market today, and the seller will *only* accept bitcoin for payment.

 Yeah I've seen residential properties but I'm really looking to use leverage and not just straight up pay in bitcoin.

Post: Buying RE with Bitcoin

Jerry ShenPosted
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 114
  • Votes 99
Originally posted by @James Green:
Originally posted by @Jerry Shen:

Interesting thread, although I think you just set up a straw-man argument with the statement about the internet in 1995. The internet was a viable platform back in the '90s. The internet companies that failed, failed because they didn't have a viable product or service, not because of the underlying technology of the internet. BC is not a currency being used by the masses for any reason.

Like I said earlier, I remember bitcoin when it first came out & it was still in the single digits per bitcoin. I could of mined it. I doubt most people even know that at one time, you could of "created" your own bitcoins & litecoins out of computing power magic. The novelty of bitcoin for non-criminals, was finding places that accepted bitcoin to spend. Bitcoin was also & still is the wild west in regards to it's use in the darkweb, the INSECURITY of storing your bitcoins, etc. Now they have exchanges, which are still not as secure as they are advertised to be by the operators. They are still insecure to those of us who know what they are doing & have a desire to steal bitcoins. I still remember an article about a guy who threw out some old hard drives, which unfortunately had his bitcoin wallet on them. At that time bitcoin was still in the $200-$500 range, and he had over a $1M in bitcoins on them. He was an early adapter and mined his coins.

Unlike bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, we know where gold is stored. Once an exchange or your wallet is hacked, which has and still is happening, you are out of luck.

BC is still not a true investment, in that there is no underlying asset. Unless you count "hope it goes up" as an asset. I mean why is it today $16K vs several years ago when it was $500? What in the "real" world has driven the value up? Block chain is truly the investment. It's not a smoke & mirrors concept. It's straight up math & technology. Various industries are now starting to utilize it for true real world services. IMO, the "pipe dream" of BC is definitely driving the creation of all these other crypto currencies. With all of these crypto-currencies, which one is going to 1)be accepted by the world-wide banking industry, 2)be accepted by the regular man on the street that wants to buy some gas at a gas station, groceries, clothes, etc. At the price point now, BC can only be "used" for big ticket items & that if it is accepted. Sure  you can cash out, but what happens when a bubble is determined, like the housing & stock markets, it's value will crash and crash hard. If it is not accepted by the banking industry, it won't rebound to where it was. Parts of this country haven't rebounded from the real estate market crash.

I do wish I had spent more time setting up my lab to mine both BC & LC. Who knows, I definitely would of been a crypto multi, multi millionaire, but I doubt it b/c I'm sure I would of cashed out at some point before it headed north of several hundred dollars

Fair points. I'm not trying to convince anyone to buy or not buy bitcoin I'm just stating MY investment thesis. If you are confident in yours why don't you put your money on it and short it? Bitcoin futures are now trading on CBOE.

I do think some of your points are outdated though. No one  (aside from ideologues) seriously considers bitcoin a currency anymore, and there are secure ways to store your bitcoin using hardware wallets but it's tough to convince normal people to do it which I think will hamper it's adoption. And as far as the darkweb you do realize every transaction is recorded on the public blockchain right? Here is one of mine, I can't hide if I wanted to anyone with a browser can look: https://blockchain.info/tx/4705d24ddac8f5fa4c82170...

Any time any one wants to spend bitcoin on anything he basically needs to announce it to the entire world...

So anyone who uses bitcoin for illegal purposes is not the sharpest tool in the shed. =) It's literally the most transparent and traceable transaction medium mankind has ever seen lol

Post: Buying RE with Bitcoin

Jerry ShenPosted
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 114
  • Votes 99
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

Jerry Shen has raised the issue that concerns me most about bitcoin.  There are lots of people in the world and certainly companies that have enough money to cause a collapse of bitcoin.

We do not know who the insiders are in bitcoin.  Jerry Shen might be Satoshi Nakamoto.  We do not know if big players are shorting their own positions because they plan on collapsing the bubble.

I do hope Jerry Shen was able to turn his fortune from Yahoo!  (Does the "!" show my age?) into 5000 times more money with bitcoin.

I wish George Soros was here.  He is brilliant in shorting currencies and their equivalents.

Most big players are shorting their own positions (especially miners) as a hedge. Hasn't caused a crash so far. With bitcoin futures volatility has decreased pretty significantly.

Keep in mind to short a future you need someone else to hold the long position. It's a two way contract and it's cash settled so no actual bitcoin ever changes hands.

Your concern is definitely possible but I don't think it's quite as likely as you may think. 

Before the introduction of futures there was no effective way to short crypto which I think is why it had such a huge run up so quickly. Time will tell of course, CME (world's largest futures exchange) opens bitcoin future trading in 4 days. Exciting times...

Post: Buying RE with Bitcoin

Jerry ShenPosted
  • Denver, CO
  • Posts 114
  • Votes 99
Originally posted by @Brandon Schlichter:

I'm curious what lender would take something that can have swings of 50% on a weekly rate as collateral? I understand annuities, bonds, bank accounts but bitcoin?

Just deal with it - Either sell the bitcoin for USD, or keep it in hope that it goes up. 



At one time I had over 2000btc, sold a great deal when while was under $100/btc to start my rental business. Now i'm planning on being around 85 units end-of-year. I don't regret selling the Bitcoin one bit. I got my first BTC back when you could go on one of the many faucets and collect 0.5btc/1btc a day. I lost it a year later after a Javascript injection looted something like a quarter of all bitcoin wallets. I've seen the price from 10c to now nearing $20k. 

So, don't be shocked when 99%+ of banks won't take it as collateral. If you ABSOLUTELY want to do it, just spend a few satoshis and find the contacts for a private lender that will do the deal. There's ALWAYS options out there but you're going to have to go around and do most of the work yourself.

You're probably right that private lending is probably going to be a better option for now. What better way to find those lenders who want bitcoin than posting on biggerpockets, though? =)

And again, I sound like a broken record, but no lender needs to hold the bitcoin as collateral. They can unload immediately and not be subject to the volatility of the asset. It's the timing and uncertainty of closing on commercial transactions that is the core problem I'm trying to solve.