@Kevin Lefeuvre
My opinion as of March 25th 2020,
It’s important to remember that macro real estate economics is controlled by the micro submarkets. I am keeping a close eye on my own market and taking note of how it responded to economic instability in the past… Definitely, there will be a short term and long term impact on the real estate market from the COVID-19 Pandemic. The main factors are how long and how bad the crisis gets.
Here is what I see in my own market:
Short-Term)
My market is healthy. In the past week alone 120 sfh homes have closed another 108 are under contract and there are 111 new listings. This is a healthy sellers market. I am noticing an increase of market activity since the FED lowered interest rates. I am confident that activity will remain healthy in my market in the short term.
Mid-Term)
If the Pandemic increases intensity over the next few months and the economy decreases in performance… Then I think that real estate sales will slow down as a result. I am doubtful that residential notes will be called in the short term. Likely there will be a small percentage of people (under-capitalized) who run into mortgage problems. If So, foreclosures take a minimum of a year to execute here. Likely, there will be government assistance for these people given the circumstances. It is possible that the market will slow down over the next six months if the COVID-19 Pandemic increases in intensity.
Long Term)
Business as usual. As real estate investors, we understand that the market is cyclical. Since our real estate portfolio is run as a business we keep reserves in case of unexpected events such as COVID-19, or vacancy, repairs, capX, and so on. The people most effected (investors or otherwise) will be the ones without reserves running their business or life paycheck to paycheck. Many of these people may be our tenants. As business owners it’s time to step up and do the right thing given your particular situation. Be Creative, Be Persistent, Be Confident. This To Shall Pass…
In Conclusion, If you want to see the future of real estate just take a look at the past; The market will go down and the market will go up as it always has. You can depend on that : )
A couple great books for your quarantine reading list:
“Recession Proof Real Estate Investing” by: J Scott
“Total Money Makeover” by: Dave Ramsey