Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Some more statistical data :

- 42% of houses do not have a mortgage.
- 92% of houses that has a mortgage, are having mortgages of less than 6%.
- Homeownership rate is actually increasing between Q2 to Q3 2023, from 61% to 62%.

These are more reasons why the housing sector is quite resilient, I just realized it too.

Yeah, all this time the only thing that matters and still does, are the jobs reports. If the economy can handle fed funds rate 5 percent or higher for a full year without impacting jobs too much which in turn could impact those mortgage holders to have to sell to people with higher rates, then we get the soft landing from fed and none of this ever matters. I’m still highly skeptical of the soft landing. 

Looking at history,  If it's about tech jobs, the dot-com bust in 2001-2003 doesn't impact housing but it impacts office space (there's still vacant space from 2001 that's still unused today). Also related to the job market, remember those jobs are mostly professional sector where job replacement can be made within a few months, so I would guess the impact to residential would be much less. Remember we still have a record number of job openings ever since 2019.  With the economy growing at 3 percent, we actually do not have a recession, but we may have a shifting job market (Eg: tech people moving from tech co. to oil companies,etc).

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Some more statistical data :

- 42% of houses do not have a mortgage.
- 92% of houses that has a mortgage, are having mortgages of less than 6%.
- Homeownership rate is actually increasing between Q2 to Q3 2023, from 61% to 62%.

These are more reasons why the housing sector is quite resilient, I just realized it too.

Yeah, all this time the only thing that matters and still does, are the jobs reports. If the economy can handle fed funds rate 5 percent or higher for a full year without impacting jobs too much which in turn could impact those mortgage holders to have to sell to people with higher rates, then we get the soft landing from fed and none of this ever matters. I’m still highly skeptical of the soft landing. 

Looking at history,  If it's about tech jobs, the dot-com bust in 2001-2003 doesn't impact housing but it impacts office space (there's still vacant space from 2001 that's still unused today). Also related to the job market, remember those jobs are mostly professional sector where job replacement can be made within a few months, so I would guess the impact to residential would be much less. Remember we still have a record number of job openings ever since 2019.  With the economy growing at 3 percent, we actually do not have a recession, but we may have a shifting job market (Eg: tech people moving from tech co. to oil companies,etc).

The issue is going to be high paying jobs to support the high home prices. Wall Street just announced lower bonuses coming up. People I talk to in other fields have reported no bonuses and no cost of living adjustments for next year. Job market has shifted. I believe there is now a “floor” on housings as I do not expect any job to pay below $15 an hour, but the boom of college graduates making 100K out of college that we just had are gone now. I feel like we are transitioning to Australia’s model where min wage is high but your office jobs aren’t astronomically different, so we will have a smaller middle class and a massive chunk of income will to towards food then housing. I still think median values will have to drop. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Some more statistical data :

- 42% of houses do not have a mortgage.
- 92% of houses that has a mortgage, are having mortgages of less than 6%.
- Homeownership rate is actually increasing between Q2 to Q3 2023, from 61% to 62%.

These are more reasons why the housing sector is quite resilient, I just realized it too.

Yeah, all this time the only thing that matters and still does, are the jobs reports. If the economy can handle fed funds rate 5 percent or higher for a full year without impacting jobs too much which in turn could impact those mortgage holders to have to sell to people with higher rates, then we get the soft landing from fed and none of this ever matters. I’m still highly skeptical of the soft landing. 

Looking at history,  If it's about tech jobs, the dot-com bust in 2001-2003 doesn't impact housing but it impacts office space (there's still vacant space from 2001 that's still unused today). Also related to the job market, remember those jobs are mostly professional sector where job replacement can be made within a few months, so I would guess the impact to residential would be much less. Remember we still have a record number of job openings ever since 2019.  With the economy growing at 3 percent, we actually do not have a recession, but we may have a shifting job market (Eg: tech people moving from tech co. to oil companies,etc).

The issue is going to be high paying jobs to support the high home prices. Wall Street just announced lower bonuses coming up. People I talk to in other fields have reported no bonuses and no cost of living adjustments for next year. Job market has shifted. I believe there is now a “floor” on housings as I do not expect any job to pay below $15 an hour, but the boom of college graduates making 100K out of college that we just had are gone now. I feel like we are transitioning to Australia’s model where min wage is high but your office jobs aren’t astronomically different, so we will have a smaller middle class and a massive chunk of income will to towards food then housing. I still think median values will have to drop. 

long time ago I used to think this way too that the housing market is primarily supported by the job market and wage ; but lately I realized the housing market is just function of money supply. Also Housing would drop only if number of homeowners and investors are reduced, but late data shows both type of ownership is actually increasing. 

Housing would drop in long term if US Dollar is not being used in the world anymore. For example, recent mortgage rate drops are the actual output when the world needs to have more Dollars in circulation and cheaper Dollars.

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Some more statistical data :

- 42% of houses do not have a mortgage.
- 92% of houses that has a mortgage, are having mortgages of less than 6%.
- Homeownership rate is actually increasing between Q2 to Q3 2023, from 61% to 62%.

These are more reasons why the housing sector is quite resilient, I just realized it too.

Yeah, all this time the only thing that matters and still does, are the jobs reports. If the economy can handle fed funds rate 5 percent or higher for a full year without impacting jobs too much which in turn could impact those mortgage holders to have to sell to people with higher rates, then we get the soft landing from fed and none of this ever matters. I’m still highly skeptical of the soft landing. 

Looking at history,  If it's about tech jobs, the dot-com bust in 2001-2003 doesn't impact housing but it impacts office space (there's still vacant space from 2001 that's still unused today). Also related to the job market, remember those jobs are mostly professional sector where job replacement can be made within a few months, so I would guess the impact to residential would be much less. Remember we still have a record number of job openings ever since 2019.  With the economy growing at 3 percent, we actually do not have a recession, but we may have a shifting job market (Eg: tech people moving from tech co. to oil companies,etc).

The issue is going to be high paying jobs to support the high home prices. Wall Street just announced lower bonuses coming up. People I talk to in other fields have reported no bonuses and no cost of living adjustments for next year. Job market has shifted. I believe there is now a “floor” on housings as I do not expect any job to pay below $15 an hour, but the boom of college graduates making 100K out of college that we just had are gone now. I feel like we are transitioning to Australia’s model where min wage is high but your office jobs aren’t astronomically different, so we will have a smaller middle class and a massive chunk of income will to towards food then housing. I still think median values will have to drop. 

long time ago I used to think this way too that the housing market is primarily supported by the job market and wage ; but lately I realized the housing market is just function of money supply. Also Housing would drop only if number of homeowners and investors are reduced, but late data shows both type of ownership is actually increasing. 

Housing would drop in long term if US Dollar is not being used in the world anymore. For example, recent mortgage rate drops are the actual output when the world needs to have more Dollars in circulation and cheaper Dollars.

Hypothetically speaking, if world reserve currency status is lost, how much do home values drop?

 Or do they go sky high nominally with inflation?

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Some more statistical data :

- 42% of houses do not have a mortgage.
- 92% of houses that has a mortgage, are having mortgages of less than 6%.
- Homeownership rate is actually increasing between Q2 to Q3 2023, from 61% to 62%.

These are more reasons why the housing sector is quite resilient, I just realized it too.

Yeah, all this time the only thing that matters and still does, are the jobs reports. If the economy can handle fed funds rate 5 percent or higher for a full year without impacting jobs too much which in turn could impact those mortgage holders to have to sell to people with higher rates, then we get the soft landing from fed and none of this ever matters. I’m still highly skeptical of the soft landing. 

Looking at history,  If it's about tech jobs, the dot-com bust in 2001-2003 doesn't impact housing but it impacts office space (there's still vacant space from 2001 that's still unused today). Also related to the job market, remember those jobs are mostly professional sector where job replacement can be made within a few months, so I would guess the impact to residential would be much less. Remember we still have a record number of job openings ever since 2019.  With the economy growing at 3 percent, we actually do not have a recession, but we may have a shifting job market (Eg: tech people moving from tech co. to oil companies,etc).

The issue is going to be high paying jobs to support the high home prices. Wall Street just announced lower bonuses coming up. People I talk to in other fields have reported no bonuses and no cost of living adjustments for next year. Job market has shifted. I believe there is now a “floor” on housings as I do not expect any job to pay below $15 an hour, but the boom of college graduates making 100K out of college that we just had are gone now. I feel like we are transitioning to Australia’s model where min wage is high but your office jobs aren’t astronomically different, so we will have a smaller middle class and a massive chunk of income will to towards food then housing. I still think median values will have to drop. 

long time ago I used to think this way too that the housing market is primarily supported by the job market and wage ; but lately I realized the housing market is just function of money supply. Also Housing would drop only if number of homeowners and investors are reduced, but late data shows both type of ownership is actually increasing. 

Housing would drop in long term if US Dollar is not being used in the world anymore. For example, recent mortgage rate drops are the actual output when the world needs to have more Dollars in circulation and cheaper Dollars.

Hypothetically speaking, if world reserve currency status is lost, how much do home values drop?

 Or do they go sky high nominally with inflation?

 btw this is the answer for Blackstone debacle:
https://www.ft.com/content/23a... 

I can claim I'm right again lol :) dude BREIT has 10% positive return this year, it's Asian investor that's withdrawing money, they need US Dollar I guess.

if world reserve currency is lost ? I am not too worried about that, as before that happened, there would be some coup-de-etat, espionage with CI* involvement, major oil crashes.... in some other countries :) lol  

I guess if there's really that threat, the US gov. would just short the dollar so much that it's not beneficial to trade with Yuan or Rubble.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Some more statistical data :

Housing would drop in long term if US Dollar is not being used in the world anymore. For example, recent mortgage rate drops are the actual output when the world needs to have more Dollars in circulation and cheaper Dollars.

Hypothetically speaking, if world reserve currency status is lost, how much do home values drop?

 Or do they go sky high nominally with inflation?

 Also I have to tell this, the imminent problem with the world right now is not that USD would lose currency status, it is not.
The problem is reversed. There could be potential default of non-US banks with the dollar this high because that institution has large
US debts with local collateral assets. If USD continues increasing, many bank/countries may go default. Hence at one inflection point,
the dollar has to be cheaper again to save those banks/countries. Bloomberg just talks about this. When dollar goes down, the interest rate would be lower, and US hard asset would inflate again.

[Jerry W.]

I don't know if I have anything to add after this huge outpouring, but here goes.  I cannot speak to the whole market, but in my area sales and prices went crazy.  Property prices nearly doubled in 2 years.  I have seen a lot of boom bust cycles in Wyoming, but this one was different.

First keep in mind that new house construction has lagged demand a decent bit since the about 2008.  We had a bit of a glut of houses, and a lot of builders dropped out of the market.  Next we had Covid shut everyone down and the feds pumped massive amounts of cash into the system without producing any tangible items.  Sales of everything boomed massively.  You couldn't buy any appliances and prices jumped 40% or more in just months.  People were able to move out of big cities on the coast and remote work anywhere they wanted.  Civil unrest and riots hit markets that had been hot buying places and folks decided that they wanted to live somewhere where they were safe from riots.  People realized they could die from a virus, not just cancer or old age issues so they decided it was time to have the little house in the country with a dog.  

All of this resulted in the biggest housing boom I have ever seen in Wyoming.  Do not discount sentiments of the Buyer in this.  People who are afraid of things like busts can create them.  The great depression was self sustaining, the more people feared the depression the less they spent, which made the economy worse which made people more fearful and spend less.

In my area prices were a bargain, and folks priced their house 40% higher and sold them. Now some folks priced their houses 100% higher. Those houses never sold. In my area we just had a reality check. The folks who were 100% over learned there was a cap. I call it blowing the foam off the top. We went from 60 to 80 houses on the MLS in my little town to 12 houses, all of which were grossly over priced. This happened across the entire state. Prices have not dropped from their level in 2020, they have just forced the overpriced sellers down. There is still more demand than houses, but buyers are more cautious. I like to think we had a reality check, not a crash. People who bought 30% over the market in 2020 or 2021 could probably get their money back out easily. A few who grossly overpaid would lose 10% or so. It is impossible to generalize every market, as real estate is local, but we were due for a reality check. Prices are going to remain at least 30% over what they were in 2020, but not the 80 to 100% some folks thought. Increases will be slow, but I think will still occur. A few markets I watch may lose some ground. During 2020 to 2022 Markets in ND, SD, Montana, Colorado, and Idaho followed what I saw locally. Some were much more intense. The growth of some like Idaho were already insane before this boom hit. With lumber and supplies still a little scarce and lumber still massively up I don't see new building lowering the prices of existing houses. Until hysteria sets in I don't see a crash.

I lived through 18% interest rates and bought property that I made money on despite the rates.  The feds will back off before we hit that kind of hysteria I think.  Of course when I predict that gross stupidity will not happen someone up and proves me wrong.  I am betting on a small correction, and continued growth at a much slower rate.  I am betting on that in my acquisition criteria, so I hope I am right hehe.

Thanks to everyone on the insights I got from reading a lot of these responses.

I saw someone mentioned gas being at 5 cents in the 70s or 80s.  It was in the 25 cent range in the 70s then jumped to the 30s, the the 60 cent range, then busted over a dollar in the early 80s and there were massive lines at gas stations.  We won't be seeing lines or rationing unless something new hits us.  Inflation can hammer an economy, that is why the feds are attacking it so hard, their continued meddling however and gross over spending by the government is what created the problem. 

[Nathan Gesner]

Quote from @Jerry W.:

I remember when gas was $0.60 a gallon in Oregon. I worked at the only gas station in town and it was full-service. This pothead would pull in almost every day and ask for one gallon of gas. I would pump it, check his oil and tires, wash his windshield, and then collect the $0.60 in change. He got his money's worth!

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Here's a list of the top ten cities where negative home equity is greater than 20% of all mortgaged houses. Maybe useful for your folks to identify which city has the largest drop so far :

Colorado Springs,CO

Honolulu

Virginia Beach

Riverside

Bakersfield

San Diego

Stockton

Las Vegas

[James Hamling]

Where's the "CRASH"??????? 

This posting PROMISED me a MINIMUM 20% drop in the NATIONAL median home sale price by now....... where'd it go?!     Let me guess, it's "coming"....... 

To help keep this ultra-simple, I attached the ACTUAL facts and data below. Feel free to check it out yourself at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se... 

I know many like to say "well so and so says....", great, good for them, your confirmation bias found a supporting OPINION, I do not invest on Opinions, I don't reno Opinions, I don't rent Opinions, I don't flip Opinions, I do all these things to REAL ESTATE so the only thing that matters is what REAL ESTATE says and what the facts, numbers and data actually ARE. 

So, where is that "CRASH"? Where is my 30% Fire-Sale discount IN-MASS I was promised? The OP said the sky was falling and if any said different, that were just "deniers". Soooo does that make the Real Estate Market a "denier"? Is the data a "denier"? Without doubt the Fed is certainly a "denier" right? 

I have asked before, I ask again; at what point do people go back to fact based thinking vs headline, media-regurgitation, knee-jerk, FREAK-out emotional thinking? 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Where's the "CRASH"??????? 

This posting PROMISED me a MINIMUM 20% drop in the NATIONAL median home sale price by now....... where'd it go?!     Let me guess, it's "coming"....... 

To help keep this ultra-simple, I attached the ACTUA

I need to say you are dead accurate about pent-up demand :)
https://www.nwmls.com/despite-... 

Even the writer is using the same word :) LOL

[Dan H.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Here's a list of the top ten cities where negative home equity is greater than 20% of all mortgaged houses. Maybe useful for your folks to identify which city has the largest drop so far :

Colorado Springs,CO

Honolulu

Virginia Beach

Riverside

Bakersfield

San Diego

Stockton

Las Vegas

What is your source? I can tell you it is wrong in San Diego. The only people who could possibly have negative equity are only those who purchased since May but not so recent that decline would not has consumed their initial equity position. Core logic shows San Diego YOY up 13%. If I purchase a year ago, I would have my initial equity position plus 13% equity from appreciation. So only people who purchased since may can have negative equity and that would be only if they used an extreme high LTV. Total decline in San Diego since the May high is ~10% (source Zillow). So to be negative equity at 95% LTV initial loan, you likely had to buy in June to September (less than 5% fall in last 2 months). At 90% or lower LTV initial loan, the equity would not be negative regardless of when purchased. Any other purchase time other than June to September would not have negative equity due to the market.

I suspect it is far less than 0.1% that have negative home equity in San Diego. The purchase time span to have negative equity possible is too short and that time span is more noted for the lack of sales than the price decline. In addition, Extreme high LTV loans in San Diego are not as common as some less expensive markets because the borrow must qualify for the payment which is not easy with average SFH at $1m with a extreme high LTV loan. I would think purchases at higher than 90% LTV initial loan are a fairly small percentage (lower percentage than most other markets).

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Dan H.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Here's a list of the top ten cities where negative home equity is greater than 20% of all mortgaged houses. Maybe useful for your folks to identify which city has the largest drop so far :

Colorado Springs,CO

Honolulu

Virginia Beach

Riverside

Bakersfield

San Diego

Stockton

Las Vegas

 What is your source?  I can tell you it is wrong in San Diego.  The only people who could possibly have negative equity are only those who

Blacknight mortgage report, November edition. 

I know you're going to defend san diego market LOL i am surprised as well why it's on the list, in fact i'm surprised as well why colorado springs on the list. After checking zillow, I think explanation is that between Q1-2020 to Q2-2022, the appreciation is 50% from the baseline.

[Dan H.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Dan H.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Here's a list of the top ten cities where negative home equity is greater than 20% of all mortgaged houses. Maybe useful for your folks to identify which city has the largest drop so far :

Colorado Springs,CO

Honolulu

Virginia Beach

Riverside

Bakersfield

San Diego

Stockton

Las Vegas

 What is your source?  I can tell you it is wrong in San Diego.  The only people who could possibly have negative equity are only those who

Blacknight mortgage report, November edition. 

I know you're going to defend san diego market LOL i am surprised as well why it's on the list, in fact i'm surprised as well why colorado springs on the list. After checking zillow, I think explanation is that between Q1-2020 to Q2-2022, the appreciation is 50% from the baseline.

 I care less about defending San Diego RE market.   The stat is provably false for San Diego and not just by a little.  For 20% of mortgages to be negative and the market high being last May would require more than 20% of mortgages to be since May.   Do you see any other way for it to have happened assuming that what I state about May being our market high is accurate (you can find in numerous sources that market is still very positive YOY)?  My estimate is far less than 0.1% of the San Diego market mortgages are negative equity.  No way 20% have negative equity especially with as few purchases and refis that have taken place since May.  I personally only know one person that has purchased since May (during more normal times I probably would know 3 to 6 purchases in 6 months).  Higher rates result in less RE numbers working.  10% decline scares many flippers.  Local investors are being cautious which is resulting in less purchases.  

If it is not accurate for San Diego, I question if it is accurate for any of the listed markets (I suspect none of the listed markets have 20% of mortgages with negative equity).  

[Carlos Ptriawan]

You can always write a complaint to Blacknight about why your market is on that list. Maybe it's their error.

My market is literally the worst market in United States, but I dont care,FOMO is just so crazy they're bribing other bidders to withdraw the offer LOL

[Joanne Tsai]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Where's the "CRASH"??????? 

This posting PROMISED me a MINIMUM 20% drop in the NATIONAL median home sale price by now....... where'd it go?!     Let me guess, it's "coming"....... 

To help keep this ultra-simple, I attached the ACTUAL facts and data below. Feel free to check it out yourself at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se... 

I know many like to say "well so and so says....", great, good for them, your confirmation bias found a supporting OPINION, I do not invest on Opinions, I don't reno Opinions, I don't rent Opinions, I don't flip Opinions, I do all these things to REAL ESTATE so the only thing that matters is what REAL ESTATE says and what the facts, numbers and data actually ARE. 

So, where is that "CRASH"? Where is my 30% Fire-Sale discount IN-MASS I was promised? The OP said the sky was falling and if any said different, that were just "deniers". Soooo does that make the Real Estate Market a "denier"? Is the data a "denier"? Without doubt the Fed is certainly a "denier" right? 

most economists predict the recession hits mid year 2023, if that means many people lose jobs then, it means they will need to sell their houses then. (not that i wish anyone lose their jobs, but it may just be coming) Do I think there will be a "crash" then? it really depends on how deep the recession will be and how many people need to sell. no one knows for sure, but everyone can speculate.  

[Kevin Maher]

What is missing from all this discussion is actual data.  What has happened in the past 90 days in SF or Colorado.  In my market NW Fl inventory went from less than a month to 6 months of inventory over the past 180 days.  With about 3 months showing up in the past 90 days with a 50% decline in sales.  So with fewer buyers and more choices only the best deals close.  Lowest price for the best house.  The price is declining.  Ask a local realtor for some real stats broke down by the month over the past year.  More inventory the lower the price.  You were all screaming a year ago no inventory higher price and now you can't see the opposite in front of you.   Where is the data showing a increase in the median price in the past 90 days in your market.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Where's the "CRASH"??????? 

most economists predict the recession hits mid year 2023, if that means many people lose jobs then, it means they will need to sell their houses then. (not that i wish anyone lose their jobs, but it may just be coming) Do I think there will be a "crash" then? it really depends on how deep the recession will be and how many people need to sell. no one knows for sure, but everyone can speculate.  

 HOGWASH! 

And I am SOOOOooooo exhausted with novices saying "well, no-one can know...." BS! I KNEW! Look up my historical posts, I KNEW! 

I knew how covid moratoriums would play out, and I called it. 

I knew there would be NO crash the last 2 years, and I DID forecast it. 

I knew this whole OP premises was BS, and I ACCURATLY forecasted today, including Fed actions. 

So if nobody can forecast things, exactly how do you explain ME?! How am I doing what you say "can't" be done, over and over and over again? 

FYI; my occupation is, literally, forecasting REI.

[Joanne Tsai]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Where's the "CRASH"??????? 

This posting PROMISED me a MINIMUM 20% drop in the NATIONAL median home sale price by now....... where'd it go?!     Let me guess, it's "coming"....... 

To help keep this ultra-simple, I attached the ACTUAL facts and data below. Feel free to check it out yourself at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se... 

I know many like to say "well so and so says....", great, good for them, your confirmation bias found a supporting OPINION, I do not invest on Opinions, I don't reno Opinions, I don't rent Opinions, I don't flip Opinions, I do all these things to REAL ESTATE so the only thing that matters is what REAL ESTATE says and what the facts, numbers and data actually ARE. 

So, where is that "CRASH"? Where is my 30% Fire-Sale discount IN-MASS I was promised? The OP said the sky was falling and if any said different, that were just "deniers". Soooo does that make the Real Estate Market a "denier"? Is the data a "denier"? Without doubt the Fed is certainly a "denier" right? 

most economists predict the recession hits mid year 2023, if that means many people lose jobs then, it means they will need to sell their houses then. (not that i wish anyone lose their jobs, but it may just be coming) Do I think there will be a "crash" then? it really depends on how deep the recession will be and how many people need to sell. no one knows for sure, but everyone can speculate.  

 HOGWASH! 

And I am SOOOOooooo exhausted with novices saying "well, no-one can know...." BS! I KNEW! Look up my historical posts, I KNEW! 

I knew how covid moratoriums would play out, and I called it. 

I knew there would be NO crash the last 2 years, and I DID forecast it. 

I knew this whole OP premises was BS, and I ACCURATLY forecasted today, including Fed actions. 

So if nobody can forecast things, exactly how do you explain ME?! How am I doing what you say "can't" be done, over and over and over again? 

FYI; my occupation is, literally, forecasting REI.

so how many people will lose their jobs? and how many will need to sell? can you spell your crystal ball?

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Kevin Maher:

What is missing from all this discussion is actual data.  What has happened in the past 90 days in SF or Colorado.  In my market NW Fl inventory went from less than a month to 6 months of inventory over the past 180 days.  With about 3 months showing up in the past 90 days with a 50% decline in sales.  So with fewer buyers and more choices only the best deals close.  Lowest price for the best house.  The price is declining.  Ask a local realtor for some real stats broke down by the month over the past year.  More inventory the lower the price.  You were all screaming a year ago no inventory higher price and now you can't see the opposite in front of you.   Where is the data showing a increase in the median price in the past 90 days in your market.

 I always shared the data. Nationwide, October data inventory has -0.02% MOM growth and negative new listing 15-20%. Price generally flats if statistic is used.

While San Francisco houses in general regressed to 2018-2020 price level. Neighbour city like SJ is regressed to Feb 2022 price level only. 

San Francisco well , it has its own problem, it's perhaps the most filthy city in the world compared to its GDP. Who wants to live there if not homeless LOL

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@John Carbone

 Blackstone is taking a mark to market hit, for sure. But I am not sure they are going to hit the sell button, because once they do they will never be able to get out of from underneath that. I can see them hitting every measure prior, and riding out the wave of depreciating house prices(in some markets) and selling a few in appreciated markets.

And if I'm wrong, cool, I'm a net buyer once I get ahold of my taxes owed in 2022.

This year, All private REIT funds from blackrock , JLL has a return of 8-10% this year, the weakest is GS Real Estate.
It's the only private investment asset class that is still solid and hypothetically safe.

Have more information on Blackstone, wondering why their return is so good this year. They made 13% NOI growth this year. The major reason is 90% of their property has an average fixed interest rate of 4% until 2028/2029. Pretty smart manager I guess.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

so how many people will lose their jobs? and how many will need to sell? can you spell your crystal ball?

 The entire BS "doomsday" obsession that there will be some huge, mass layoff and unemployment event, (A) that is patently FALSE, not-true, not-accurate, a lie, make-believe, a false narrative, disconnected from all economic reality! it is "all the lie's", so let's just start there shall we. 

Secondly, GET '08' OUT OF YOUR HEAD! 

I don't understand this disease of rotten thinking, obsessed on '08' and with this ridiculous panic that suddenly we will have bread-lines and millions of unemployed. Look, '08' was a "perfect storm", it was NOT just a 1 thing, it was about 42 things all perfectly coming together into 1 singular point, like a million flashlights on 1 fixed point creating a laser effect. 

Today, go ahead, lay off 1 million people because guess what, the worker SHORTAGE and demand is OVER 2 million. So what would happen, THEY'D GET A DIFFERENT JOB! 

The sky is NOT falling, it has NOT been falling, and please STOP the ridiculousness. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@John Carbone

 Blackstone is taking a mark to market hit, for sure. But I am not sure they are going to hit the sell button, because once they do they will never be able to get out of from underneath that. I can see them hitting every measure prior, and riding out the wave of depreciating house prices(in some markets) and selling a few in appreciated markets.

And if I'm wrong, cool, I'm a net buyer once I get ahold of my taxes owed in 2022.

This year, All private REIT funds from blackrock , JLL has a return of 8-10% this year, the weakest is GS Real Estate.
It's the only private investment asset class that is still solid and hypothetically safe.

Have more information on Blackstone, wondering why their return is so good this year. They made 13% NOI growth this year. The major reason is 90% of their property has an average fixed interest rate of 4% until 2028/2029. Pretty smart manager I guess.

Huh, almost as if they have retained some really great advisors on acquisition and operational strategy in the SFR segment....... Gee, I wonder if someone like them was looking for that kind of advisor, with National presence, like say 40+ brokerage locations throughout the US, and they gotta SPECIALIZE in SFR, huh, I wonder who that would be?.......

And wouldn't that really be something if say, one of the Senior Advisors at that group, wouldn't it be something if they just by chance happened to be keyed into BP community, maybe lent some insights and advise for all the "Average Janes'/John's" out there...... 

But, unfortunately, we'd really struggle to know exactly WHO that is because work like that would of course have layers of NDA's, and that brokerage would be of some size, like NASDAQ listed entity or something, and that brings in SEC oversight on top of it all, so that person would really have to watch the disclosures HE made....... 

But I bet with just a bit of digging it would become real obvious real fast. Because they probably have the company there associated with listed, say in there signature line like so many do. And a quick google search would find that companies website, and I bet you they'd have a ton of info on investor services, and it would be some expansive stuff, even talking on major portfolio level. Probably just takes some googling and 15 minutes or so.......

[Daniel Smyth]

@Greg R.

Markets are local.

Like talking religion, talking about markets just makes one push the other.

The markets are good if you gamble with what you can afford to loose.

In 2007 and 2008 it was the same. Those who overextended themselves and then fell on hard times, lost big. I am that guy! Hard times recovered from, I have a new respect for hands on research and perhaps going a bit slower.

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Where's the "CRASH"??????? 

most economists predict the recession hits mid year 2023, if that means many people lose jobs then, it means they will need to sell their houses then. (not that i wish anyone lose their jobs, but it may just be coming) Do I think there will be a "crash" then? it really depends on how deep the recession will be and how many people need to sell. no one knows for sure, but everyone can speculate.  

 HOGWASH! 

And I am SOOOOooooo exhausted with novices saying "well, no-one can know...." BS! I KNEW! Look up my historical posts, I KNEW! 

I knew how covid moratoriums would play out, and I called it. 

I knew there would be NO crash the last 2 years, and I DID forecast it. 

I knew this whole OP premises was BS, and I ACCURATLY forecasted today, including Fed actions. 

So if nobody can forecast things, exactly how do you explain ME?! How am I doing what you say "can't" be done, over and over and over again? 

FYI; my occupation is, literally, forecasting REI.

All heil king James!