Based on just the number of responses to this topic it appears that most people are anticipating a down turn now. And you are the market or a large portion of it. This wasn't the case 6 months ago when most were anticipating slight increase this year, but it is flat to turning down in areas. Not by much yet. As previously so eloquent put it, it will take some time to unfold. Wise man there. Only two things happen in a business cycle. It goes up and goes down. It never stays the same. I saw article the other day in financial news and can't remember where but it was talking about how one reit had put a hold and then limits on pulling any money out because they were quickly going insolvent. We are the market people. It appears most everyone except one extremely intelligent man, that the market has topped out and looks to be going down or that is there main concern. If most thinking it is going down they are getting if from what they are seeing around them and will act accordingly. Credit markets are tightening. I think everyone agrees on that. So that is less buyers. Intuitional buyers from every thing I am seeing on financial news sources is they have quit buying and been selling which is requiring them to lower prices to move the inventory. Now these are the areas where the big guys where buying up entire subdivisions. The righting is on the wall. These are commercial loans which are getting tighter with reduced LTV's. Then double the interest rate on a billion dollar loan and they are not cash flowing now. 3 to 7 years on these loans. So as they refi well things are different. I don't know what world some live in but I graduated high school in 1973 and been thru multiple recessions. People don't go on vacation, they don't buy toys, they don't eat out, and they sure as hell are not buying any 70k electric cars and trucks. The feds have stated they are going to drive the economy into a recession to cure inflation along with crashing the housing market. I don't know what J Powell's definition of crash is but my gut says it ain't a good thing. If 30 to 50% that is a **** load of money for a investor. Does anyone thing if the market drops 30% in the next year it is going to go back up 30% in 2024? Or 50%. I think most would agree a drop of 30% in value in 12 months is a crash.
Lets take a survey and just see where everyone stands. We are the market and should be the most knowledgeable market participants overall. Maybe email every member ask a series of questions. What is a crash to them. What do they anticipate. Hell we are a trove of info and data from all other the country. I bet as group we would have the most accurate prediction of where the market is and where it is going.
If you are not buying and hesitating everyone else is to. So what would make you feel comfortable enough to take the risk you have taken in the past 5 years. Very low rates would do it. But that is not happening for 24 months. Not much good in the economy is expected over the next 12 months minimum. If prices came down 30% I would be buyer or if the interest rate drops dramatically. If prices do start dropping in most areas buyers will really sit on the side line then. If the population is going to adopt a rental stance and never own well they still have to afford the rent. You have to make 125k a year now to qualify for the medium priced house in the entire country. If you have no buyers you have no market and the buyers have spoken by the recent data where buyers have quit buying in a larger number. How could it get better from here when every economic indicator says bad days ahead. Everyone I talk to says the same thing everything is high as hell regardless of what the govt says. People are feeling it in the pocket. That is what counts as they are the market. Can't believe all this came out of me tonight. Sorry for how long it is.
