Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[JD Martin]

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:

@JD Martin

Thats some solid push back.  I have no metrics.  But our trade deficit is very high, and I think there are some funny numbers going on (but if you pushed me I can't prove that).  I could be wrong here and I will look into this (because I won't shut up about it) LOL.  But everything in the stores, my home etc is made somewhere else.  In addition I wouldn't be surprised if many of the items in the manufactured index are inflated.  For instance a hammer in America is more than a hammer somewhere else because you can get more for it here.  I also believe that one of the big reasons Americans don't work is because our culture and society don't require it.  If could not bring in all the cheap crap that would change in a hurry.  

I agree with you on the facts are whats important and I have doubled down on this so much these facts may be unacceptable to yours truly!  LOL.  But I'll dig into it this because if I am right what is happening to the nation is a great tragedy/self sabotage, even if I do overstate the case.  

We're not really on opposite pages here. I think that a healthy internal manufacturing line is extremely important for all nations, including ours. Obviously there's things you cannot produce for yourself and thus have to trade with others, but failing to provide some of your own internal manufacturing on some items - pharmaceuticals, for example, or weaponry - is downright dangerous to national security. 

I was merely pointing out that we're far from dead as a manufacturing nation. If anything, more manufacturing has come back to the US as COVID exposed a lot of weaknesses of "just in time" and the global supply chain.

I'm reading a good book right now called "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" by Peter Zeihan. I don't know if I agree with everything he's got in there but he certainly makes some compelling arguments. Anyway, it talks about a lot of what's being (indirectly) discussed in this thread. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Chris John:

Honestly, I'm not sure how much inventory institutional investors are holding right now...

 It's a lot, a lot more then I think most would ever believe. As an entity that represents some of these, i can say from 1st hand knowledge that Blackrock is just the tip of the iceberg. 

As for switching gears and flooding the markets with units; in theory they could do such, but only in manner of the inventory they hold is capable of having that kind of effect on a market if all were to be liquidated at once. It will never happen, EVER, and for good cause. First, people would go to prison. Remember these are funds, whom are regulated and have oversight. Such an action would have many implications as criminal, and then the suites, all the suites.     Next is the obvious, it would cut them very deep and incur massive losses to do such. 

If they had to liquidate rapidly it would be done off-market, behind the curtain, and it would simply transfer to other funds. 0 market impact. 

Standard liquidation is done to best capture retail momentum. 

[Chris John]

@James Hamling

Makes a lot of sense as long as an institution somewhere has the money to liquidate.  I couldn't agree more about them not wanting to flood the market if they could avoid it though.  I remember banks sitting on houses for months, even years, out here in the central valley of CA to try to mitigate the supply.  

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

Makes a lot of sense as long as an institution somewhere has the money to liquidate.  I couldn't agree more about them not wanting to flood the market if they could avoid it though.  I remember banks sitting on houses for months, even years, out here in the central valley of CA to try to mitigate the supply.  

That’s the problem. When things are going great, there’s no shortage of willing buyers (but then there is no need to sell.) however, when things go badly, and fed funds rate is 4 percent, it’s not so simple to just transfer via an OTC deal. I don’t think any institution will willingly sell their holdings, but they may be forced to if things get really bad. Just because stonks went up 2 days in a row doesn’t mean this is over. In bear markets there are usually several 10 percent up moves before a true “bottom” is found. Add in that housing is lagging 3-6 month indicator, this winter should be interesting for sure.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Chris John:

 retirement investments.  If his money isn't making money, he may up and move it.  For that reason, tons of inventory and prices drop.  Honestly, I'm not sure how much inventory institutional investors are holding right now...

I can help you with this. From what I read, 1:5 houses are belong to 'institution' ; it used to be 1:10 five years ago.

So yes they have bigger effect during this market.

Btw they will not sell their holding, they may only increase :) lol

I have to say serously doubt institutional investors own 1 in 5 SFR's nationwide I could see 5 out of a 100 something like that but 1 in 5 no way is my thought.

I agree Jay… seems hard to believe. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Collin Hays:

Hubris is a dangerous thing.  You started in RE in 2009.  It’s been a straight line up since.  I’m glad you have conviction that it will continue, but mocking those that disagree is out of line.  

Continue as you were.  I hope it keeps working out.

 Correction, I started in the world of real estate in 1989. That was my first taste and the first time my father allowed me, and my brother, any involvement or knowledge into the home building world. From there I started in the trades in 92. By mid 90's I was a co-foreman on multi-unit sites, I wasn't even old enough to vote or drink yet, lol. 

I paid my dues and clawed my way up the ladder, consistently being the youngest to ever have done such at each place I elevated through and for 1 simple reason, I worked harder, smarter, more dedicated to mastery then anyone else. I asked tons of questions, stayed close to every established pro and sought to learn everything. By early 20's I was cofounder of a major renovation and building company across 2 states. 

2009 is when I started in REI professionally. I was a seasoned known pro in the housing industry by that time already, which is what opened those doors to me in REI. My first deal was a true $0 deal, my reputation was my colterol. From that I grew a proficient flipping business, starting in a time when all were certain it was suicided to do so.

Everyone around in that time knows, it was anything but straight line and straight up. For several of my first years the market was still descending. Then it was a question of where the bottom was. 2012-14 there was a ton of people saying how everything was about to drop out even deeper, TONS. They all sounded exactly the same as the doom-preachers here, emotionally driven, arrogant in their ignorance, and without and foundation of facts to drive there theory of imminent doom. 

I was a success because i ignored all the noise and BS, and stuck to the facts, data and made my own analysis from those. 

I mock, OPENLY, proudly, those who seek to twist the minds, twist and contort reality, distort to sell fear-porn. Telling people home price are going to drop 30%, that there is going to be mass vacant properties, mass foreclosure, rental rates will plumet, it's simply NOT true. There painting a picture WORSE then 2008 collapse, and the justification is mortgage rates went up...... come on man really! 

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Chris John:

 retirement investments.  If his money isn't making money, he may up and move it.  For that reason, tons of inventory and prices drop.  Honestly, I'm not sure how much inventory institutional investors are holding right now...

I can help you with this. From what I read, 1:5 houses are belong to 'institution' ; it used to be 1:10 five years ago.

So yes they have bigger effect during this market.

Btw they will not sell their holding, they may only increase :) lol

I have to say serously doubt institutional investors own 1 in 5 SFR's nationwide I could see 5 out of a 100 something like that but 1 in 5 no way is my thought.

I agree Jay… seems hard to believe. 

 not only hard to believe simply not true. 

[Collin Hays]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Collin Hays:

Hubris is a dangerous thing.  You started in RE in 2009.  It’s been a straight line up since.  I’m glad you have conviction that it will continue, but mocking those that disagree is out of line.  

Continue as you were.  I hope it keeps working out.

 Correction, I started in the world of real estate in 1989. That was my first taste and the first time my father allowed me, and my brother, any involvement or knowledge into the home building world. From there I started in the trades in 92. By mid 90's I was a co-foreman on multi-unit sites, I wasn't even old enough to vote or drink yet, lol. 

I paid my dues and clawed my way up the ladder, consistently being the youngest to ever have done such at each place I elevated through and for 1 simple reason, I worked harder, smarter, more dedicated to mastery then anyone else. I asked tons of questions, stayed close to every established pro and sought to learn everything. By early 20's I was cofounder of a major renovation and building company across 2 states. 

2009 is when I started in REI professionally. I was a seasoned known pro in the housing industry by that time already, which is what opened those doors to me in REI. My first deal was a true $0 deal, my reputation was my colterol. From that I grew a proficient flipping business, starting in a time when all were certain it was suicided to do so.

Everyone around in that time knows, it was anything but straight line and straight up. For several of my first years the market was still descending. Then it was a question of where the bottom was. 2012-14 there was a ton of people saying how everything was about to drop out even deeper, TONS. They all sounded exactly the same as the doom-preachers here, emotionally driven, arrogant in their ignorance, and without and foundation of facts to drive there theory of imminent doom. 

I was a success because i ignored all the noise and BS, and stuck to the facts, data and made my own analysis from those. 

I mock, OPENLY, proudly, those who seek to twist the minds, twist and contort reality, distort to sell fear-porn. Telling people home price are going to drop 30%, that there is going to be mass vacant properties, mass foreclosure, rental rates will plumet, it's simply NOT true. There painting a picture WORSE then 2008 collapse, and the justification is mortgage rates went up...... come on man really! 

Yes but this is a real estate forum where folks have all sorts of opinions.  There’s no need to be disrespectful. Be the pro that you claim to be and cut that out.  Turn your spell checker on while you’re at it.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

To what point is this entire posting now????

It's clear that a few in here are just dead set obsessed with the end of everything. No matter what is shown, pointed out, proven, none of it matters the pre-ordained conclusion is THE END IS NEIGH. 

It all just reminds how the math of the game keeps proving itself over and over again. For every 1 of us out on the field actually playing the game, with actual working knowledge, actually "doing", there is 10,000 sitting in the stands screaming how wrong everyone on the field is and how genius they are, from there seats, watching, just watching, professional spectators. 

Tell ya what, maybe I will put it in book form once I get done "doing", call it "How The Sky DIDNT Fall". 

@James Hamling  what happens to your “3 for 1” client who faces political backlash when this goes into effect across the whole metro area? Do you really think your local government is going to allow rent gauging beyond affordability? Looks like Minnesota is on the brink of being California 2.0 

https://m.startribune.com/st-p... reminds me of a mortgage broker I knew back in 2006, really good guy, but he was in way over his head. He said how great teaser rates were because real estate only went up and that once the reset occurs, the negative amortization can be rolled into a refi into another teaser rate. It was a genius idea right? Paying 1-2 percent interest and since housing always goes up I mean what idiot wouldn’t buy 50 homes and then turn around and rent it to “chumps” all the while pocketing the spread and gaining home equity on top! Well we all know how that played out. But sure James, it’s different this time. What’s comical, is that you think a 20 percent drop in real estate will be the end of the world scenario….wow reversing 18 months of gains! How could that be? Will the world end and will there be aliens all because of this happening?

 Again, making things up, lying, distorting. Way to go Joe. 

That "news" is Saint Paul, 1 city, not the whole state. And, maybe look up old posts on BP here and you will find myself announcing this action when St Paul passed the strictest rent controls in the U.S.. Fast forward to today and guess what buddy, it lasted months! basically

the entire rent control has been taken down, the city itself made so many if, but's, whens to it all that there is effectively no rent control anymore. 

And here you all just deciding Twin Cities rents are now price gouging, just, in general, Lol. WTF is wrong with you man? 

Go ahead, keep spouting your BS, lies, twists and distortions. You clearly are that guy who does nothing but knows everything. You went all crazy on here
adsolutely 100% certain home prices would drop 30%, no doubt. Then, oh, aaahhhh, uhmmmm, turns out the world was not melting down so uh-oh now your quickly revising too 20% and yelling how right you were the entire time.     Hey, remember me, that guy who said NO it wouldnt drop by 30%? You can feel free to say i told ya so anytime. 

You were wrong. Your still wrong. All your doing is trying to lie, twist and distort your way out of being shown as dead-flat-wrong.    

And I am 100% sure when nothing you promised and argued so insanely over happens, your going to say you were right, it's just the market that changed, lol...... 

[Tony Kim]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

Honestly, I'm not sure how much inventory institutional investors are holding right now...

 It's a lot, a lot more then I think most would ever believe. As an entity that represents some of these, i can say from 1st hand knowledge that Blackrock is just the tip of the iceberg. 

As for switching gears and flooding the markets with units; in theory they could do such, but only in manner of the inventory they hold is capable of having that kind of effect on a market if all were to be liquidated at once. It will never happen, EVER, and for good cause. First, people would go to prison. Remember these are funds, whom are regulated and have oversight. Such an action would have many implications as criminal, and then the suites, all the suites.     Next is the obvious, it would cut them very deep and incur massive losses to do such. 

If they had to liquidate rapidly it would be done off-market, behind the curtain, and it would simply transfer to other funds. 0 market impact. 

Standard liquidation is done to best capture retail momentum. 

And I don't understand why BlackRock was singled out in those semi-recent articles. It's something that many asset managers have been doing for a good amount of time, well before BR joined the RE SFR party. BlackRock is the opposite of innovative investing. They're more about seeing the cash cows that other AMs have discovered and then they try to enter the fray in the 7th innning...typically not by actually starting their own product, but instead by purchasing the AM or business itself and then infesting it with their super inefficient platform.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Chris John:

 retirement investments.  If his money isn't making money, he may up and move it.  For that reason, tons of inventory and prices drop.  Honestly, I'm not sure how much inventory institutional investors are holding right now...

I can help you with this. From what I read, 1:5 houses are belong to 'institution' ; it used to be 1:10 five years ago.

So yes they have bigger effect during this market.

Btw they will not sell their holding, they may only increase :) lol

Where are you getting institutional number? I’ve seen investor numbers at 1:10 but private investors are still a good portion of market. Would be interested in the data.  

 I call BS to 1:5 homes belong to institutional investors, lol, that's ridiculous. 1:10 is ridiculous. 

If you take ALL residences of EVERY kind, thats homes, apartments, townhomes ALL forms of residences then yes, you get to those marks. Not looking at single family units, lmao. 

The disinformation on BP has become a pandemic level event nowdays. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Chris John:

@Carlos Ptriawan

That ratio is crazy!  Wouldn't they have to sell though?  I mean if everyone pulled their money and walked?  They'd have to get cash to liquidate the selling positions somehow, no?

 Why? Why would they "have to sell". Do you understand at all how funds work? They are the most liquid holders of real estate bar-none. They would be "the" ones to just hold. They have the least leverage of all. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

To what point is this entire posting now????

It's clear that a few in here are just dead set obsessed with the end of everything. No matter what is shown, pointed out, proven, none of it matters the pre-ordained conclusion is THE END IS NEIGH. 

It all just reminds how the math of the game keeps proving itself over and over again. For every 1 of us out on the field actually playing the game, with actual working knowledge, actually "doing", there is 10,000 sitting in the stands screaming how wrong everyone on the field is and how genius they are, from there seats, watching, just watching, professional spectators. 

Tell ya what, maybe I will put it in book form once I get done "doing", call it "How The Sky DIDNT Fall". 

@James Hamling  what happens to your “3 for 1” client who faces political backlash when this goes into effect across the whole metro area? Do you really think your local government is going to allow rent gauging beyond affordability? Looks like Minnesota is on the brink of being California 2.0 

https://m.startribune.com/st-p... reminds me of a mortgage broker I knew back in 2006, really good guy, but he was in way over his head. He said how great teaser rates were because real estate only went up and that once the reset occurs, the negative amortization can be rolled into a refi into another teaser rate. It was a genius idea right? Paying 1-2 percent interest and since housing always goes up I mean what idiot wouldn’t buy 50 homes and then turn around and rent it to “chumps” all the while pocketing the spread and gaining home equity on top! Well we all know how that played out. But sure James, it’s different this time. What’s comical, is that you think a 20 percent drop in real estate will be the end of the world scenario….wow reversing 18 months of gains! How could that be? Will the world end and will there be aliens all because of this happening?

 Again, making things up, lying, distorting. Way to go Joe. 

That "news" is Saint Paul, 1 city, not the whole state. And, maybe look up old posts on BP here and you will find myself announcing this action when St Paul passed the strictest rent controls in the U.S.. Fast forward to today and guess what buddy, it lasted months! basically

the entire rent control has been taken down, the city itself made so many if, but's, whens to it all that there is effectively no rent control anymore. 

And here you all just deciding Twin Cities rents are now price gouging, just, in general, Lol. WTF is wrong with you man? 

Go ahead, keep spouting your BS, lies, twists and distortions. You clearly are that guy who does nothing but knows everything. You went all crazy on here
adsolutely 100% certain home prices would drop 30%, no doubt. Then, oh, aaahhhh, uhmmmm, turns out the world was not melting down so uh-oh now your quickly revising too 20% and yelling how right you were the entire time.     Hey, remember me, that guy who said NO it wouldnt drop by 30%? You can feel free to say i told ya so anytime. 

You were wrong. Your still wrong. All your doing is trying to lie, twist and distort your way out of being shown as dead-flat-wrong.    

And I am 100% sure when nothing you promised and argued so insanely over happens, your going to say you were right, it's just the market that changed, lol...... 

They must have not gone through with it because of your bigger pockets posts. Good job fighting the system james. My point was the fact it was even talked about should lead you to some concerns. If prices actually go up 5-10 percent a year for rents next decade people are going to have costs almost double in a decade. You seem to be stuck in the past and the present. Try to look into the future a little bit. I always said 20-30 percent since I came on here. When the fed changes their stance within a week (market thinking that) I’ll lower it down to the bottom of my range, that doesn’t make me wrong I openly said my projection changes with rates. You are the only who has been saying rates don’t matter.

also very impressive career you have there. 1989 you started in construction. Is this your first photo on the job?

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Tony Kim:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

Honestly, I'm not sure how much inventory institutional investors are holding right now...

 It's a lot, a lot more then I think most would ever believe. As an entity that represents some of these, i can say from 1st hand knowledge that Blackrock is just the tip of the iceberg. 

As for switching gears and flooding the markets with units; in theory they could do such, but only in manner of the inventory they hold is capable of having that kind of effect on a market if all were to be liquidated at once. It will never happen, EVER, and for good cause. First, people would go to prison. Remember these are funds, whom are regulated and have oversight. Such an action would have many implications as criminal, and then the suites, all the suites.     Next is the obvious, it would cut them very deep and incur massive losses to do such. 

If they had to liquidate rapidly it would be done off-market, behind the curtain, and it would simply transfer to other funds. 0 market impact. 

Standard liquidation is done to best capture retail momentum. 

And I don't understand why BlackRock was singled out in those semi-recent articles. It's something that many asset managers have been doing for a good amount of time, well before BR joined the RE SFR party. BlackRock is the opposite of innovative investing. They're more about seeing the cash cows that other AMs have discovered and then they try to enter the fray in the 7th innning...typically not by actually starting their own product, but instead by purchasing the AM or business itself and then infesting it with their super inefficient platform.

 BP has become wildly over-run with armchair quarterbacks. I think so many call out Blackrock because it's the one fund they have heard of, because there most media exposed, or have been. 

Again, armchair quarterbacks. They watch some games so of course they know everything about every facet of actually playing the game, building and running a team, stadium management etc etc... 

Can tell I am just burnt out on it all. What i wouldn't give for a intelligent debate based on fundamentals or something of substance. It all seems to just be "oh, they sky is falling because I feel it's falling so it must be falling and how dare you tell me to calm down because THE SKY IS FALLING!". 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@Carlos Ptriawan

That ratio is crazy!  Wouldn't they have to sell though?  I mean if everyone pulled their money and walked?  They'd have to get cash to liquidate the selling positions somehow, no?

 Why? Why would they "have to sell". Do you understand at all how funds work? They are the most liquid holders of real estate bar-none. They would be "the" ones to just hold. They have the least leverage of all. 

 Boomers own 48% of homes. So I could see a number of 1 out of 10 including ALL investors not just institutional. but its high and that’s why I asked. And generally speaking Carlos has posted some decent data articles. I’m much closer to your side of the argument because Frankly I see the turn as more regional driven. Yes those of us on the East will feel it but 10% is all I’m planning for. Even 08 was only 13% for the PA / Philadelphia region. And we have none of that leveraged, upside down bs this time around. 

At the end of the day there is no reason to sell. Now I could see 20% on the west coast markets as a stretch between rates and tech stocks blowing up. But that doesn’t equal 20% nationally let alone 30% 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@Carlos Ptriawan

That ratio is crazy!  Wouldn't they have to sell though?  I mean if everyone pulled their money and walked?  They'd have to get cash to liquidate the selling positions somehow, no?

 Why? Why would they "have to sell". Do you understand at all how funds work? They are the most liquid holders of real estate bar-none. They would be "the" ones to just hold. They have the least leverage of all. 

You are so clueless about institutional investors. They are already slowing down in most markets, funds can have people pull money forcing them to raise capital to pay off, rates are 4 percent risk free, here is just one example of someone trying to exit the housing market. There are a TON of conglomerates dumping this overpriced heap of trash on the market. Fortunately for them, they have people like you to dump them to. You are about to get rug pulled James. But please, keep advising clients to sell now and buy 3 properties for the price of one with leverage. Also, be careful how you are selling this to clients, you are liable to be sued when they end up bankrupt. You think I’m being ridiculous with these claims, but they are very serious concerns that have a risk weighting to them substantially greater than 0, but keep thinking this is all as likely as aliens invading. 

Also did you think of that real estate pro strategy all on your own? Selling a home take profit and do 3 down payments? You must be in Mensa if you came up with that idea! 

https://moneymarketadvisor.com...

[James Hamling]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@Carlos Ptriawan

That ratio is crazy!  Wouldn't they have to sell though?  I mean if everyone pulled their money and walked?  They'd have to get cash to liquidate the selling positions somehow, no?

 Why? Why would they "have to sell". Do you understand at all how funds work? They are the most liquid holders of real estate bar-none. They would be "the" ones to just hold. They have the least leverage of all. 

You are so clueless about institutional investors. They are already slowing down in most markets, funds can have people pull money forcing them to raise capital to pay off, rates are 4 percent risk free, here is just one example of someone trying to exit the housing market. There are a TON of conglomerates dumping this overpriced heap of trash on the market. Fortunately for them, they have people like you to dump them to. You are about to get rug pulled James. But please, keep advising clients to sell now and buy 3 properties for the price of one with leverage. Also, be careful how you are selling this to clients, you are liable to be sued when they end up bankrupt. You think I’m being ridiculous with these claims, but they are very serious concerns that have a risk weighting to them substantially greater than 0, but keep thinking this is all as likely as aliens invading. 

https://moneymarketadvisor.com...

 Yes Joe, without doubt you know far more then a person who actually work in institutional funds and represents several of them, I forgot, your the absolute expert of everything and we are all just morons. All hail the Joe...... 

I'm done with you fool, done done. Bye-bye, block back on. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@Carlos Ptriawan

That ratio is crazy!  Wouldn't they have to sell though?  I mean if everyone pulled their money and walked?  They'd have to get cash to liquidate the selling positions somehow, no?

 Why? Why would they "have to sell". Do you understand at all how funds work? They are the most liquid holders of real estate bar-none. They would be "the" ones to just hold. They have the least leverage of all. 

You are so clueless about institutional investors. They are already slowing down in most markets, funds can have people pull money forcing them to raise capital to pay off, rates are 4 percent risk free, here is just one example of someone trying to exit the housing market. There are a TON of conglomerates dumping this overpriced heap of trash on the market. Fortunately for them, they have people like you to dump them to. You are about to get rug pulled James. But please, keep advising clients to sell now and buy 3 properties for the price of one with leverage. Also, be careful how you are selling this to clients, you are liable to be sued when they end up bankrupt. You think I’m being ridiculous with these claims, but they are very serious concerns that have a risk weighting to them substantially greater than 0, but keep thinking this is all as likely as aliens invading. 

https://moneymarketadvisor.com...

 Yes Joe, without doubt you know far more then a person who actually work in institutional funds and represents several of them, I forgot, your the absolute expert of everything and we are all just morons. All hail the Joe...... 

I'm done with you fool, done done. Bye-bye, block back on. 

  I find it hilarious that once specific details begin to be discussed proving your “facts” as BS, you get hostile like a child with a hammer and try to embellish everything and “blocking”…..Hoping it will make your “facts” hold up….nobody is buying what you are selling here James. I’m sure you have institutional investors on off market deals everywhere, yet you bother renting $1500 houses a month for probably $1000 a year commission? Spare me the BS James. Fact is institutions are already starting to liquidate, why do you think prices are down already? Please unblock me in 6 months, I can’t wait to see the BS excuses you come up with. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@Carlos Ptriawan

That ratio is crazy!  Wouldn't they have to sell though?  I mean if everyone pulled their money and walked?  They'd have to get cash to liquidate the selling positions somehow, no?

 Why? Why would they "have to sell". Do you understand at all how funds work? They are the most liquid holders of real estate bar-none. They would be "the" ones to just hold. They have the least leverage of all. 

 Boomers own 48% of homes. So I could see a number of 1 out of 10 including ALL investors not just institutional. but its high and that’s why I asked. And generally speaking Carlos has posted some decent data articles. I’m much closer to your side of the argument because Frankly I see the turn as more regional driven. Yes those of us on the East will feel it but 10% is all I’m planning for. Even 08 was only 13% for the PA / Philadelphia region. And we have none of that leveraged, upside down bs this time around. 

At the end of the day there is no reason to sell. Now I could see 20% on the west coast markets as a stretch between rates and tech stocks blowing up. But that doesn’t equal 20% nationally let alone 30% 

 Speaking from our (my brokerage's) internal data pool. We are the #2 largest player in the U.S. for single family rentals. 73% of landlords are small holding landlords. Which means, just average people, not institutional and not some big pro's by any stretch of the imagination, just average people who have 1-4 rental properties on average. 

While this is not national data on all single family rental units in the country, I think our market share is of the level to show a pretty strong metric. I don't see how the numbers can flip from where we are too 1:5. And as mentioned before, we represent many of these institutional funds, several you've heard in the news, or the resulting actions from. And even with that, still the vast majority are just normal people not funds. 

The sun belt has gotten a bit overrun by institutions, I could see something like that possibly there but even then, wow, that's a crazy market share. Atlanta, very possible, that place has been overrun for year. K.C., and a few other markets I can think of but nationally, no way, no way no how. Remember there is entire states that institutions are not touching, and many markets they don't get into. So to be 1:5 nationally is saying for the markets there in it's more like 1:2.    No way i am buying that. I would need to see some evidence to believe a figure like that. 

[Chris John]

@Tony Kim

"And I don't understand why BlackRock was singled out in those semi-recent articles."

I only used them as an example because I have a right wing conspiracy buddy that won't shut up about how only corporations will own houses from now on. I've actually defended BlackRock in my conversations with him.

@James Hamling

"Why? Why would they "have to sell". Do you understand at all how funds
work? They are the most liquid holders of real estate bar-none. They
would be "the" ones to just hold. They have the least leverage of all."

Welp, James, it's a pretty self-explanatory question, no?  I give money to a financial advisor, it doesn't make as much as I wanted, so I ask for it back and move on to the next investment?

Are you under the impression that they take my money and buy a house with it, but still have my money to pay me back if I decide to liquidate? 

Also, please understand that this is apparently enough of a concern that  BlackRock is currently limiting withdrawals as we speak in the UK:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...

I literally had no idea that this was actually happening.  It must have been God's gift to me to help counter an "armchair quarterback".  LOL. 

And finally, I think you think that teacher left you in charge of the class.  Didn't happen and we're fine...

[Chris John]

@John Carbone

Beat me to the punch!  haha

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Chris John:

@Tony Kim

"And I don't understand why BlackRock was singled out in those semi-recent articles."

I only used them as an example because I have a right wing conspiracy buddy that won't shut up about how only corporations will own houses from now on. I've actually defended BlackRock in my conversations with him.

@James Hamling

"Why? Why would they "have to sell". Do you understand at all how funds
work? They are the most liquid holders of real estate bar-none. They
would be "the" ones to just hold. They have the least leverage of all."

Welp, James, it's a pretty self-explanatory question, no?  I give money to a financial advisor, it doesn't make as much as I wanted, so I ask for it back and move on to the next investment?

Are you under the impression that they take my money and buy a house with it, but still have my money to pay me back if I decide to liquidate? 

Also, please understand that this is apparently enough of a concern that  BlackRock is currently limiting withdrawals as we speak in the UK:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...

I literally had no idea that this was actually happening.  It must have been God's gift to me to help counter an "armchair quarterback".  LOL. 

And finally, I think you think that teacher left you in charge of the class.  Didn't happen and we're fine...

BINGO!

It’s okay, James is probably not privy to these discussions on the institutional side of things. He just pushes the paperwork through, if he’s even involved with them as he claims to be.  

@chris John explained it better than me. This is my 100th post back to James, so I no longer have the patience to spoon feed him the facts like a child. Thanks for that Chris.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@Carlos Ptriawan

 Yes Joe, without doubt you know far more then a person who actually work in institutional funds and represents several of them, I forgot, your the absolute expert of everything and we are all just morons. All hail the Joe...... 

I'm done with you fool, done done. Bye-bye, block back on. 

Come on James... you serious? Can't handle the conversation and now you're blocking people? That's the real sign that you've lost the debate. You have no argument left and are resorting high school-like tactics by "unfriending/ blocking" someone on social media 😂😂

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Chris John:

@Tony Kim
@James Hamling

"Why? Why would they "have to sell". Do you understand at all how funds
work? They are the most liquid holders of real estate bar-none. They
would be "the" ones to just hold. They have the least leverage of all."

Welp, James, it's a pretty self-explanatory question, no?  I give money to a financial advisor, it doesn't make as much as I wanted, so I ask for it back and move on to the next investment?

Are you under the impression that they take my money and buy a house with it, but still have my money to pay me back if I decide to liquidate? 

This, 100%. The stock market is driven by two things, fear and greed. There is a lot of fear in BlackRock's investor pool. They are down over 35% ytd, they are in serious trouble IMO and will likely have to dump a good amount of RE in the near- intermediate future. Their assets are rapidly losing value. 

[Chris John]

@Greg R.

Oh, come on.  It's not like he invoked Godwin's Law.  haha.