All Forum Posts by: Chris John

@Carissa Atendido

Here's some advice from an extremely casual investor that's probably worth exactly what you're paying for it.  This may sound defeatist, but I don't think it is.

If you want "good deals", be prepared to compete with absolute professionals that do this for a living (to the point that you may as well be a professional yourself).  This market is beyond picked over at the moment.  I get so many calls and mailers each week trying to buy my properties that it's beyond annoying, but it lets me know what I'm up against trying to find my next deal.

If you're ok breaking even or more likely losing a little money for a while until the market changes and you eventually become a winner, go ahead and grab the best property you can and just wait.

If you're lazy like me and don't want to make a job of this, invest in an index fund instead and wait for a better market.  When one comes, act without hesitancy (with confirmed numbers, of course).  

Eventually, prices will stall for long enough (or even drop a bit), rates will drop, and/or rents will increase to the point where the numbers make sense again.  When they do, you'll be in an awesome position to act on it.

Best wishes!

@Ray Pantle

When I got into real estate, my wife was at home with three young children and I was barely making enough money to pay my bills. I refinanced my house to pull out as much money as I could, pulled the cash value out of my whole life insurance policy, and even took "seasoned" money that I'd already been taxed on out of my IRA. I went all in and told my wife we were going for broke.

However, it was 2009 when you could buy a 80k house that had sold for 270k a year earlier.  Rents were $900/mo and mortgage payments were $450.

Obviously, numbers like that don't exist now (and probably never will again).  This is a long way of saying that there's NO chance I'd pull money out of my owner occ house to seed my real estate portfolio right now.  The numbers just don't add up.  Even if you show a profit on paper, there's a vacancy, new roof, water heater, or HVAC around the corner to eat up years of profit.  

Like, if you show $300/mo on paper, how many years would it take to recoup a two month vacancy with a $6,000 turnover?  Three years of everything going perfectly?

Anyway, I'd just think long and hard about putting a loan on my owner occ right now.  Best wishes!

@Brenden Sperl

I'd DEFINITELY check the APR. That should give you the true cost of what you're borrowing as it includes fees. I'm guessing it will be quite a bit higher than the stated rate. Best wishes

@Aja Sellers

I would strongly consider pulling out of this deal.  Pro formas are great, but often inaccurate.  Especially if you have trouble getting reliably paying tenants that treat your property well. 

I'm assuming that you've reached out to professionals that know the game and know their market.  If their experience, contacts, and knowledge tells them that the neighborhood is a no-go zone, I'd strongly consider that it's for a good reason and that a newbie might even have less luck with it than they would.  Even if you can find someone to agree to do it, it will probably end up being a more difficult deal than you're imagining.  It doesn't take much for one bad tenant to erase years of profit if they're in the mood.

I'd consider interviewing some of those property managers that turned you down to see which neighborhoods they think are good and worth investing in and go from there.  Obviously I have no idea, but I feel like the flags on this couldn't be redder.

Best wishes and good luck either way!

@Scott Trench

Interesting.  Thanks for the response.  I guess it's all regional and depends on which month in 2021.  We bought ours for $380k at around 3.5%.  They're probably $450K or so now with whatever rates are.  I'm guessing 7-8%...

Quote from @Scott Trench:

If it's not time to buy right now, when is buy time? It's certainly a better time to buy than 2021, at least in multifamily!

Can I ask your reasoning for this statement?  In 2021 we bought several 4plexes that cashflowed easily at 25% down.  I'm not seeing those deals right now...  Thanks

Hey all

I'm curious.  I would most likely never invest in a syndication, but it seems like this would be a great opportunity to "buy low" based on all of the failed ones I'm seeing. 

Are today's syndicators that are buying yesterday's failures getting good deals?  Or are interest rates, rents, etc. still out of whack and making profiting difficult assuming now as time zero?  Or, are the failed projects going to kingmade investors that have "special" relationships with the lending banks? 

I'm just curious to know how these failed deals will eventually unroll.  Thanks.

Quote from @Jonathan Greene:

Quote from @Chris John:

I was trying to ignore this ridiculous thread, but against my better judgement, I'll bite. 

@Jonathan Greene

You seem like a "Mom of the Road" type that completely ignores the concept of a fast lane, goes 60, and makes the world go around you because you're going "fast enough already". 

At what point did anyone ask for the coaching advice that you doled out on this thread?

Huh? I think you should have trusted your better judgment. The "Mom of the Road" reference doesn't make any sense, but thanks for weighing in.

Since you asked, countless people I know have been complaining about this for a long time.

And as usual, the guy who hops into the chat 5 pages in never has a profile photo. If you read the chat, there are very few people who disagree with me, so what was your hope in unfurling your two cents here? I am open to it, but I don't have a clue what you are talking about.

Most advice that people need, they don't ask for because they can't see the forest for the trees.

Cool.  I'll spell it out for you then.  "Moms of the road" interject themselves into society where they're not wanted or needed by being the "boss" of people that don't need one.  That's what you did with this thread.  You could've ignored everything with Columbus on it, but chose to take the lead instead (as if you were slowing down the fast lane because it wasn't to your liking).

Bully for you that "countless" people agree with you.  Let's be honest though, "countless" could also be called "ones and ones".

As for my anonymity, what difference would that make?  I'm not trying to sell anything and have lived through the last several years of people being doxxed for innocuous comments that society has suddenly deemed unacceptable.  Call it what you want, I call it common sense.

I'd love to keep arguing, but I've gotta go hire a few dozen people so that I can fire them and then blame them for it.  Cheers.

I was trying to ignore this ridiculous thread, but against my better judgement, I'll bite. 

@Jonathan Greene

You seem like a "Mom of the Road" type that completely ignores the concept of a fast lane, goes 60, and makes the world go around you because you're going "fast enough already". 

At what point did anyone ask for the coaching advice that you doled out on this thread?

While I've definitely made more in appreciation than I have in cashflow, I don't mind knowing that my properties pay for themselves and I also don't mind the extra $5-15k every month.  I'm more than fine with cashflow...