All Forum Posts by: William C.

@Jay Hinrichs have you literally seen it all?

@Storm S. I’m not sure I follow? The stock market is doing well? I just read the article above that would indicate a recession is on the way. If your implying because REITs are up 10%, that the shift isn’t here, I’d say them being up 10% is actually a sign it’s close. As I said, we are peering over the edge. REITs, and prices may continue to rise short term, my main point is we are not at the start of a 9 year bull run as if this were 2010...

 That's interesting, and as real estate is obviously hyper local, instances like this are happening in other pockets of the country as well.  I guess it's good for sellers in your market, but bad for the markets those people are running from.   Scary stuff, unfortunately out here on the east coast, the CA fires become a 10 second segment on the nightly news.   

 Exactly.  Hold on people, we are looking over the edge.  Luckily (depending how you look at it), at least in my opinion, it won't be like 2007, this rise is not artificial like it was then, so more of a leveling off would make more sense than an all out crash.  Time will tell.  

 Yup, the higher end markets are the first to feel it.

 Average HOM, hours on market is about 6....when priced correctly.  Of course some sellers are getting greedy and thinking listing higher means a higher sales price.  I'm a believer in slightly under-pricing, and let emotions make buyers pay even more than if they know they are the only one with an offer.

 I understand some of what your saying, I'm just not sure I have an answer for you, other than there are less flippers in the market scooping them up 1,2,3 days on market.   How do I know why no one else bought it?  If we were worried about that, we would NEVER move on a property.   Flips sell with multiple offers over asking price because we are usually selling a home that fits 90% of buyers..1900 sq ft, 3-4 bed, 2 bath, under $300k.....We are seeing 30-40 showings on the first weekend on any house listed in this price range.   Why are people not buying the fixers?  Who knows.  But they are not.  Maybe its my lucky day and I get to scoop 4 or 5 great deals?   I doubt it.   

He is able to sell flips, for way more a month later, because buyers want the house the see at the end of the TV show, they dont want to be the TV show.  They wouldnt even know where to start...money, permits, contractors, where to live.....most buyers want nothing to do with that.  They'll pay the premium on the back end for a perfect house they can move into.

Lastly,  it's a 50/50 split flips and rentals.  But even the rentals are priced a point we can renovate, rent, refi, and pull almost all cash back out.

 You are right about that.  Takes 1.5-2 years on some of these to hit the market.  It's strange though.  In that matter of weeks we are feeling a slow down.  Foreclosures lasting 20 days on the market?  That was unheard of even 2 months ago.  I am not saying there are no flippers out there anymore,  we are still out there, it is just SHIFTING, i can feel it under my feet like never before.

It's here. The shift is upon us. Whether a crash is to follow, I am not sure, but the rising tide that we have all been riding for the last 9 nears to reaching it's tipping point. I seriously have no more time to write a post because I have to head out the door to tour 5 properties my buyer wants to see today. Here's what I know. We have been scouring the market for buy and hold and fix and flip since his last project closed about 6 months ago. Sure, we have seen the base hit here, and maybe another single over there. But nothing we were seeing was a solid, double, or triple, let alone the thought of a homerun. For a little perspective, he likes to NET about $40-50k on flips, assuming about $200-250k total investment. Buy and holds he looks for 15% COC, and or about $400/door depending on the project, cash needed, etc etc. Right now he has 5, count them FIVE deals on the table to choose from. All ranging from a 'double' to 'home runs'. Flips looking to net around 40k would be a double, 100k a home run. AND, to make matters worse, we have 5 more to look at today, which all look like solid deals on paper and in photos. So we went from not being able to find a single property that would NET more than $15-20k on a flip, and in the matter of WEEKS at least 5 screaming deals have hit the market, still have not sold, and more seem to be hitting the market daily as we can't even get into them all fast enough to run the reno budgets.

Sure, this is  just my anecdotal evidence.  I promise to bring more facts to the discussion to support me claim, I just don't have the time right now with all this opportunity.  I find it extremely hard to believe all the investors in my market, the greater Philadelphia area, have just pick up and quit buying up deals for the month and left them all behind for us.  I think the shift is here.   The question now becomes, do prices level off and allow buyers to catch up that have been struggling to find a place, or does it swing all the way in the other direction and we see prices actually start to drop.

I welcome those that agree, but even moreso those that disagree.  Please change my mind please try to find some signs that are not pointing to a complete meltdown.   I'm going to leave everyone with one fact that will solidify my case.  Jumbo Mortgages are down 12% by volume compared to last year.  That's a huge drop.  And anyone that has seen this before, the top of the market starts to slow first, and it trickles it way all the way down the the $30k single family homes in Detrioit.  I wish everyone the best.  This is going to be an extremely exciting time for those that have been preparing for it. 

 Just listen to @jay , he knows what he is talking about.  Period, end of story.

You don't need to "take the comments" in anyway personally.  We are simply giving you advice.  Take it or leave it.  If you want to practice on your aunts house.  Find an agent that will let you come along for the ride.  Whether  you handle the negotiations etc is up to you and them, but you should really have a professional to point you in the right direction.  To answer your question before, about how we all got started with our first deal, we had a broker, or agent, or boss right by our side the ENTIRE way to answer every question that arose, because you will have 100s.  Your first question was "how do I write the purchase agreement"  Coming to the forums and getting 30 different opinions every time you have a question will send you running in circles.  Im literally just trying to help.  To be 1000% completely totally honest.....When I saw the title of this thread I was salivating at the thought of a newbie wholesaler taking some poor old lady for the ride of her life.  Thankfully that poor lady is your aunt, and she was an agent and is fully aware of what you are going to be trying to do and how the home is going to be sold.  So there, that the only reason I got involved.  In the end I just wanted to help, thats why I spend hours on this site, helping people. I certainly dont log on here to put down, argue, or discourage people.  Best of luck