All Forum Posts by: William C.

Its all a misunderstanding, then. Top of market being, as I meant it is $30 million, $10 million, $3 million. Or I'll even consider over $550k, which is the Jumbo market, which is down 12%, which is the article I was referring to.... I don't consider $300k to be top of market. Sorry for the misunderstanding. I'm sorry but a NAR "heat map" , is not talking about the top end, is it? Its just not exactly the evidence I was looking for. I appreciate the info, but it compares all markets to each other, not their actual heat. I might be extremely tall compared to my daughters kindergarten class, but if I'm 4ft, am I tall? No. Maybe PHL is ranked 46 out of 300, that does not prove to me we are not peering over the edge of a market shift. Thats just me, maybe I'm wrong. I'm really not here to debate. You do realize, even in a complete meltdown, there will be a number 1 "hottest market" on that heat map?

Also let me clarify.....I'm pretty sure I never said "complete meltdown", if I did it was  I'll read all my comments, and if I did I'll update the post.....   I see the market leveling off in the short term, next 6 months....What I DONT see is prices rising at the rate they have the last 7 years straight.   

Thank you for finally giving your thoughts on what are YOU seeing in YOUR market?

I appreciate the input and I completely understand.  And I'm sure the answer would change for a flip or short term hold as well, the more variables, the further the range of answers from one investor.   I think we all have default we go to when all other variables are equal.   I agree with everything you said, except the last statement, or least I was trying to paint a picture where we all knew it was going to be within a few thousand dollars, and you have to decide whether to a little high or a little low.  If we had 3 agents, and 3 appraisers, and 3 buyers, and 3 sellers  tell us the "value" of a single home, down to the hundreds, we would have 12 different answers.  Albeit close.  On the retail side I find my buyers in this situation ALL the time, and for them it's impossible to remove emotions.  When there are 3 offers, it's hard to exactly what the other buyers are thinking.   I think this thread is good example of that, there has not been a single option that is a clear cut front runner.  I maybe should have clarified and made the "market conditions" a little tighter.  Not so much that the value is affected, but that the type, location, size, and condition is a model match to what YOU are looking for.  For example some investors only buy a certain type of property in a certain part of town, or try to buy around their other properties.  So for them, this is actually  a more "rare" opportunity than the rest of the market may see it.   Of course it's easy to say I'll just lowball with another deal coming through next month.  But lets say you ONLY buy on one side of town,  and the reason you buy on that side does not affect the property values either way.  So now id say its worth a tiny bit more to you, since it fits in your box.   This may change some of the previous offers but then again probably not.   It seems like some are wired to get that good deal and move on unfazed either way, while others feel they have come this far, it checks the boxes, and don't want to let a few thousand dollars get between them and their next deal.  

 My goal was to paint the picture of the deal "working" at all prices, and then see the different perspectives from there.    

Properties are receiving an average of 1.7 more views than the US average.   Blazing hot.    

Realtor.com is saying the market is heating up?  No way.  Where does this reference the top end of the market that I never referred to?  And they are lumping PHL,DE, and WILM together and comparing them to other metro areas.  That does not tell me anything to be honest.  Im talking about 2 square miles, outside of Philadelphia.  This still doesn't show me where I contradicted myself.  Nor does it prove we are not on the edge of a shift.  I agree 200-400k homes are still flying off the market.  Thats what this chart is showing me as well. Philly happens to be slightly hotter compared to all other markets in the country.  Ok. What if the rest of the country is closer to the shift?   I am also outside of Philadelphia, so is this referring to inside the city limits?  I am not really trying to debate the issue.  I am seeing what Im seeing, and Im curious what others are seeing in their market.  If you want to debate we can join the debate forum.   You are saying I'm contradicting myself simply because you don't believe me.  

What issue would that be?   They rounded up way too much cash? The wrong people are heading these things?  They are looking for deals in the wrong places?   I see the point you are trying to make.   And inventory is low everywhere.  I don't disagree there.  I just see it starting to open up a little in market recently, unlike I have seen for years.  That's a pretty small market we are talking about.  Not many buyers, not many sellers, not many deals to begin with. At the same time, this doesn't indicate anything on the macro in my opinion, and that they have too much cash on hand.  I can't stress enough that "in my opinion" this is the beginning of the change.  Going to take a while to turn the tanker around.

 Yep, and they'll continue to rise, even after the bottom falls out.  I'm not saying it will, but the real estate market shifting is like turning around a cruise ship.  They start turning the wheel and the passengers cant feel it moving in the other direction for a few minutes.  And the time it takes to actually turn all the way around is hours.  Its seems like the rising prices are slowing to a stop, then maybe they'll start going in the other direction, maybe they wont, I think theyll stay stready for some time.

Interesting approach. Is 10k less really that much of a greater deal? $50/month more cash flow? Rather than missing it and having to start all over again. Im not saying your wrong, in fact you could be right, just want to get your thoughts on why that might be your approach. Are deals easy to come by in your market? Im seeing more and more daily, but up until now its been pretty difficult. Still no reason to bend on your standards, but it was said earlier in the thread, sometimes people step over dollars to pick up pennies. Not sure thats always the best long term strategy. Keep in mind we are talking BRRRR. A flip is another story. 10% discount can go a long way. With BRRRR and financing the 10k over 30 years, the short term pain is relatively low, and the overall long term gains can be substantial. I appreciate the input. I love seeing so many different perpectives.

 I understand.  We always arrive at a number from a multitude of variables.  I tried to make the make believe dream scenario where ART goes out the window and its strictly MATH.  Having worked with hundreds of buyers and sellers on both sides of the deal, people tend to fall into categories.  Some just want to get the deal done, even if they spend an extra 10k, some would rather walk, close on nothing, and sit on the sidelines than pay the 10k it would take to get it done.  It's an interesting debate.  No one is right, everyone is free to approach deals in there own way.  Iv noticed the retail buyers that fall in love with a home and go in there with no regard for money typically end up with their dream home, and those that want to try to save $8/month by offer $2k less end up back at the drawing board.  Retail is a different ball game, and I typically tell buyers if they will be upset if they lose it, give it their best.  Investing is a business so you should be able to take the emotions out of it.

 Yup, all things "average", no other variables....Thanks for the insight.  For example, I fall into one distinct category.  I have clients who fall into others.  I feel everyone has a natural tendency, when it comes down to "highest and best" and everyone is within 5-10k.  I wish share more, I promise.  I'm waiting on what others have to say first.

 Obviously it always depends.  Thats why I wrote the disclaimer, to avoid 100 replies of...it depends on the situation....all of us have a natural go to mode.....I tried to paint a clear picture, deal is on the table, everyone KNOWS its worth 100k, there are 3 offers, what do you do?   No bidder wars, no feeling the seller out, no second chances.   Highest and best.  Try again maybe?