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All Forum Posts by: Joe Bertolino

Joe Bertolino has started 7 posts and replied 1232 times.

Post: Salon suites or wellness center?

Joe BertolinoPosted
  • Investor
  • El Dorado Hills, CA
  • Posts 1,286
  • Votes 1,233

I have an insurance client that owns three of these.   I would keep it simple.   Make it nice and upscale but I would not want to get involved with too many additional amenities.  Hair Dressers, estheticians, etc are very price sensitive in these situations.  Most that rent those types of places rather than a chair at a large high-traffic salon are there because they don't want to work 24/7.   

Post: Buying in Roseville/Cameron Park/Carmichael ???

Joe BertolinoPosted
  • Investor
  • El Dorado Hills, CA
  • Posts 1,286
  • Votes 1,233
Quote from @Ahamed AM Ali:

I am a first-time home buyer, and I have 3 offers in  Roseville/Cameron Park/Carmichael. which location is good for me to buy the primary house?


 Out of those three Cameron Park would be my choice.   I grew up in Rocklin but prefer the Highway 50 side of Sacramento.  We have basically everything you get in Roseville/Rocklin with 60% less traffic and congestion.  Roseville is not a bad choice.  

Carmichael is in an unincorporated part of Sacramento county so it’s very inconsistent.  There are immaculate neighborhoods that are a block or two from large homeless camps.  I lived there for 8 years but it would not be my choice. 

Post: Need opinion on selecting tenants

Joe BertolinoPosted
  • Investor
  • El Dorado Hills, CA
  • Posts 1,286
  • Votes 1,233
Quote from @Tony H.:
Quote from @Nicole Masters:

What area is this in? And what are you asking for rent? I would consider possibly holding out for better tenants, how long have you had it posted for?

Its in south natomas.. asking $2700.. posted for about almost 2 weeks now

 That sounds a little high.  I have 3 new builds in North Natomas going for $2500.  3/2 1750 sq feet.  
I think you are shooting too high.  

Post: Repetitive HVAC Theft, Cages, and Insurance Claims

Joe BertolinoPosted
  • Investor
  • El Dorado Hills, CA
  • Posts 1,286
  • Votes 1,233

When I have had a problem with properties like that I ask one of my contractors or other contacts if they have anyone who would want to stay there temporarily between tenants.   Usually a young guy with a blow up mattress and Roku TV that's happy to be out of his parent's house for a month.  I paid them $25 a day.  

Post: Reliable Local Banks (For A HELOC)

Joe BertolinoPosted
  • Investor
  • El Dorado Hills, CA
  • Posts 1,286
  • Votes 1,233

Heritage Credit Union in Folsom. Obviously, the market is changing rapidly but Heritage normally has the best HELOC terms in our area.

Post: How are you responding to price cuts?

Joe BertolinoPosted
  • Investor
  • El Dorado Hills, CA
  • Posts 1,286
  • Votes 1,233

I am not a doom and gloomer but I think you need to decide how long you want to wait.  I think you deal with the market as it is or pull it and wait until early spring.  I think staying on the market from November - January is not going to be ideal for your pricing integrity.

Post: Housing crash deniers ???

Joe BertolinoPosted
  • Investor
  • El Dorado Hills, CA
  • Posts 1,286
  • Votes 1,233
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I have been thinking about the same, but in Bay Area market is different again. What's funny in this area is, from 2019 to 2021, by average market shifted to $300K regardless it's San Francisco, San Jose or Redwood City. But the baseline of each city is different. San Jose baseline was much lower than San Francisco. So it's not surprising if San Jose experienced more pullback now compare to San Francisco.

However what interesting is, the upper and lower SJ price home experience the same 100k price reduction, so the price is reduced more on the lower side rather than the upper. It seems the buyer didn't want to move 'cheaper' neighborhood per-se when they have money.

Comments about the builder: you are pretty much right. If you see the builder SF new permit, there's already a decline from last year. The permit increase is pretty much on Multifamily units mainly in South region.

 Fewer projects are penciling out so you are seeing fewer projects moving forward.    Construction takes longer and is more expensive and money is more expensive... while there is fear sales prices will drop.  You won't see a bunch of new projects for awhile which will just add to the demand when rates are back down.  The slowing in supply has very little to do with how much demand is truly there.  

Post: Housing crash deniers ???

Joe BertolinoPosted
  • Investor
  • El Dorado Hills, CA
  • Posts 1,286
  • Votes 1,233
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Joe Bertolino:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Joe Bertolino:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:

@Joe Bertolino


hot off the press.

Home prices cooled in July at the fastest rate in the history of S&P Case-Shiller Index

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/2...

I thought sellers wouldn’t sell, prices wouldn’t drop, and theres no inventory?


I posted the math here a few days ago about how all the equity during Covid was phantom here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

this is just getting started folks, this is July data…rates are up almost 2 percent since then. unless rates come back down fast, the winter numbers are going to look abysmal. 


Did anybody say the rate of growth wouldn't stop? overall still up, but slowing growth (which is beyond expected). Are people actually saying that there will be no slowing to the growth?  Or are people just saying the market won't crash which would be 20% reduction or more? All this says is it's slowing (and not even that much all things considered). 


 I don’t know if he actually read the story or if he thrives on click bait.  

I lost my desire to debate him when he “couldn’t remember” the subdivisions in Dallas he was claiming had hundreds (if not thousands) of completed homes sitting in standing inventory. 

 you must be thinking of someone else, I never said anything about dfw subdivisions.

Also, showing historic data being released is not click bait, they are facts based on real data in markets all across the country. What you say in your replies is click bait based on false assumptions of reality. While you can still live in your fantasy land there thinking prices won’t drop, there’s no supply and prices won’t drop..they already are, and it’s just getting started. What positive spin do developers and realtors get out of the article? That data is 2 months old, it’s already much worse now than it was then. Take off your tunnel vision blinders 

 Fact is, it is the biggest drop ever in a month, and the first drop in over a decade. But sure, nothing to see here all is well. 


 Obviously If rates stick at 9% for an extended period of time the market activity will grind to a halt. Will it drop 20%+ year over year nationwide.  I don’t think so.  I don’t see how it can.  There is not enough inventory.   3.7 months in my area with very little standing inventory from builders.  The BIA hot list has 17 homes.  I predict people just won’t do much.  They will stay put until numbers start to pencil out again.  Considering most homes have a ton of equity and rentals are extremely expensive,  unlike 15 years ago,  people won’t be walking away from their homes in mass.  

@Joe Bertolino @james hamling 

Seems like despite the data released today which shows:

1) people are listing homes (there is inventory)

2) prices are dropping 

3) largest drop in history 

So your saying this is just temporary and not indicative of what is to come despite rates being 200 basis points higher now than august (when this data is from) 

Neither of you think a 20 percent peak to trough drop is possible, so I guess we actually have to see official numbers of 20 percent drop for you to realize it.

the like outcome here is 20-30 percent drop. Fed cuts rates and housing goes back up to reinflate the bubble eventually like they always do. But prices needed to drop while rates are high, and they officially are now. 



 


 I am not sure there are a ton of listings.  Maybe in certain areas.  Last In my Sacramento metro area of 2M people there were 183 new listings. 

Post: Housing crash deniers ???

Joe BertolinoPosted
  • Investor
  • El Dorado Hills, CA
  • Posts 1,286
  • Votes 1,233
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Joe Bertolino:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:

@James Hamling @Joe Bertolino


hot off the press.

Home prices cooled in July at the fastest rate in the history of S&P Case-Shiller Index

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/2...

I thought sellers wouldn’t sell, prices wouldn’t drop, and theres no inventory?


I posted the math here a few days ago about how all the equity during Covid was phantom here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

this is just getting started folks, this is July data…rates are up almost 2 percent since then. unless rates come back down fast, the winter numbers are going to look abysmal. 


Did anybody say the rate of growth wouldn't stop? overall still up, but slowing growth (which is beyond expected). Are people actually saying that there will be no slowing to the growth?  Or are people just saying the market won't crash which would be 20% reduction or more? All this says is it's slowing (and not even that much all things considered). 


 I don’t know if he actually read the story or if he thrives on click bait.  

I lost my desire to debate him when he “couldn’t remember” the subdivisions in Dallas he was claiming had hundreds (if not thousands) of completed homes sitting in standing inventory. 

@Joe Bertolino  you must be thinking of someone else, I never said anything about dfw subdivisions.

Also, showing historic data being released is not click bait, they are facts based on real data in markets all across the country. What you say in your replies is click bait based on false assumptions of reality. While you can still live in your fantasy land there thinking prices won’t drop, there’s no supply and prices won’t drop..they already are, and it’s just getting started. What positive spin do developers and realtors get out of the article? That data is 2 months old, it’s already much worse now than it was then. Take off your tunnel vision blinders 

 Fact is, it is the biggest drop ever in a month, and the first drop in over a decade. But sure, nothing to see here all is well. 


 Obviously If rates stick at 9% for an extended period of time the market activity will grind to a halt. Will it drop 20%+ year over year nationwide.  I don’t think so.  I don’t see how it can.  There is not enough inventory.   3.7 months in my area with very little standing inventory from builders.  The BIA hot list has 17 homes.  I predict people just won’t do much.  They will stay put until numbers start to pencil out again.  Considering most homes have a ton of equity and rentals are extremely expensive,  unlike 15 years ago,  people won’t be walking away from their homes in mass.  

Post: Housing crash deniers ???

Joe BertolinoPosted
  • Investor
  • El Dorado Hills, CA
  • Posts 1,286
  • Votes 1,233
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:

@James Hamling @Joe Bertolino


hot off the press.

Home prices cooled in July at the fastest rate in the history of S&P Case-Shiller Index

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/2...

I thought sellers wouldn’t sell, prices wouldn’t drop, and theres no inventory?


I posted the math here a few days ago about how all the equity during Covid was phantom here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

this is just getting started folks, this is July data…rates are up almost 2 percent since then. unless rates come back down fast, the winter numbers are going to look abysmal. 


Did anybody say the rate of growth wouldn't stop? overall still up, but slowing growth (which is beyond expected). Are people actually saying that there will be no slowing to the growth?  Or are people just saying the market won't crash which would be 20% reduction or more? All this says is it's slowing (and not even that much all things considered). 


 I don’t know if he actually read the story or if he thrives on click bait.  

I lost my desire to debate him when he “couldn’t remember” the subdivisions in Dallas he was claiming had hundreds (if not thousands) of completed homes sitting in standing inventory.