Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I have been thinking about the same, but in Bay Area market is different again. What's funny in this area is, from 2019 to 2021, by average market shifted to $300K regardless it's San Francisco, San Jose or Redwood City. But the baseline of each city is different. San Jose baseline was much lower than San Francisco. So it's not surprising if San Jose experienced more pullback now compare to San Francisco.
However what interesting is, the upper and lower SJ price home experience the same 100k price reduction, so the price is reduced more on the lower side rather than the upper. It seems the buyer didn't want to move 'cheaper' neighborhood per-se when they have money.
Comments about the builder: you are pretty much right. If you see the builder SF new permit, there's already a decline from last year. The permit increase is pretty much on Multifamily units mainly in South region.
Fewer projects are penciling out so you are seeing fewer projects moving forward. Construction takes longer and is more expensive and money is more expensive... while there is fear sales prices will drop. You won't see a bunch of new projects for awhile which will just add to the demand when rates are back down. The slowing in supply has very little to do with how much demand is truly there.