All Forum Posts by: Victor S.

Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.

There are two people here who work in tech telling you that companies are still hiring and replacing those engineers. A lot of these lay offs are finding jobs.

Long story short it is going to take far more lay offs to actually drive up unemployment. It's still at a historic low and even the lay offs the last few weeks have barely touched it.

job reports are a lagging, not leading indicator. by the time you see massive layoffs, **** had already hit the fan.

0 Votes

Dallas, Texas

what do you mean it doesn't impact earnings when they're taking a 600m charge for that?

0 Votes

Dallas, Texas

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...

KPMG even calling for conservatively 15 percent. This is becoming the easiest housing drop prediction in history. And @James Hamling still thinks there should be an alien invasion coming.

This is a reason why Silicon Valley real estate is going up still :) LOL I'm so sorry Greg,Victor

The "old tech" company is declaring we are winning against Fed wishes, we raise guidance for the next decade. Apologize for this good news.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/...

Lets crash those new tech company in fintech/crypto, their asset should be zero :) LOL

Carlos too fast on that trigger:

"Update: In addition to the strong results, Cisco (CSCO)
said it would restructure its organization, including real estate. The
plan, which is slated to start in the company's second-quarter, is
expected to result in a pre-tax charge of roughly $600M consisting of
severance and one-time termination benefits, as well as charges for real
estate and other costs.
"

0 Votes

Dallas, Texas

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Victor S.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Time will tell.

we can do this all day. wmt blew out their earnings yesterday and target just took a major dump this morning. can you connect the dots?

The better metric for retailers is to check the status of retailer inventory, are they increasing or decreasing/flat?

BP sucks at copy/paste, but see below:

"Third quarter operating income margin rate was 3.9 percent in 2022,
compared with 7.8 percent in 2021. Third quarter gross margin rate was
24.7 percent, compared with 28.0 percent in 2021. This year's gross
margin rate reflected higher markdown rates, inventory shrink, and
merchandise and freight costs, net of retail price increases, compared
with last year. Additionally, gross margin rate was pressured by
increased compensation and headcount in our distribution centers and the
costs of managing early receipts of inventory, with a slight offset
from favorable category mix. Third quarter SG&A expense rate was
19.7 percent in 2022, compared with 18.9 percent in 2021. This reflected
the impact of cost inflation across multiple parts of the business,
including investments in hourly team member compensation, which was
partially offset by lower incentive compensation."

Consolidated Statements of Financial Position
(millions, except footnotes) (unaudited)	October 29, 2022	January 29, 2022	October 30, 2021
Assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 954	$ 5,911	$ 5,753
Inventory	17,117	13,902	14,958

0 Votes

Dallas, Texas

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

On top of it Home Depot beat expectations also which suggests home renovation is still going strong.

You assume too much....It could also be things are so bad that homeowners are doing all the work themselves...

Unlikely. 1) that knowledge doesn’t rapidly expand to the level of renno that Home Depot regularly does. AND there are articles and other sources out there about renno going strong… for now anyway.

Some of it? Sure enough to beat the way they did? Highly unlikely given the forecasts the business had to issue.

Again I’m sure it’s slowing down this qtr. It’s not unusual to see a last burst of people “getting it done” in many businesses before it drys up. I suspect there is an element of that here. But given the inflation/adjustments we will see into next year the timing is rather nice overall. Q4 earnings next year will be fun but by that point we should have different directional information from the fed.

I still see pain ahead, especially on the markets given the rally that happened. But the elements of a soft landing are there if inflation continues on the trajectory.

Since the FED uses BLS I also expect inflation numbers are higher than actual since housing accounts for a huge portion of inflation. So by January/Feb I expect that to look much prettier.

Time will tell.

we can do this all day. wmt blew out their earnings yesterday and target just took a major dump this morning. can you connect the dots?

1 Vote

Dallas, Texas

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Victor S.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Victor S.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Victor S.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Some other interesting news... A Federal Judge in Texas blocked Biden's loan forgiveness program. If this sticks and can only be possible through a bill passed by congress, it'll be dead in the water if the R's take the house.

I knew a couple people who were banking on this, so this would be a big blow to those who were expecting relief from their high intertest loans.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/f...

I think the biggest impact this year in the mega crash level would be the crypto wipeout. The impact in term of dollar is huge, maybe most Silicon VC now are 25% poorer after their stupidity :-) Their level of corruption inside the crypto business is amazing. Such in a way that the money coming from FTX is being re-invested to Sequoia (its own funder), that's Ponzi scheme.

But wait, there're a lot of folks here even in BP that restart to buy crypto LOL

Greg as long as there're crazy people there we don't know what would happen. Few years ago I thought NFT and Metaverse is joke.

Carlos, looks like even Mickey is freezing and/or laying people off now:

Disney planning 'targeted' hiring freeze, some cuts - CNBC (NYSE:DIS) | Seeking Alpha

So the problem with Disney is their margin is extremely small, only 2% (0.4B); their main source of income is largely from TV and park. Strangely, the income coming from the TV channels is much more than the park business while it's having higher operating costs.

It seems layoff in Disney Park is a great choice by the CEO. Stock should be up LOL

amazon - 10k workers. "Citing people with knowledge of the matter, the outlet indicated layoffs will be targeted among corporate and technology roles. Hiring had previously been paused in these areas while the company reviewed potential cost cutting measures and reassessed unprofitable ventures.
Within these divisions, the Alexa devices organization, human resources, and retail departments are expected to see the bulk of pink slips. "
https://seekingalpha.com/news/...

Like I mentioned many times ….tech company will use this bear market time to cut cost by eliminating group that’s not profitable , in Amazon it happened to be robotic and Alexa team. Don’t worry those guys that got laid off with 250k salary and still have thousands RSu will find new job soon.

guys if we care we should care more if steel worker get laid off because they will have difficult time find replacement job and industry

I personally don’t care if the layoff is guy that’s having tesla, they will survive and have little impact to the housing.

tech in long term would be okay becoz dolar started to go lower and inflation seems going down pretty big next year.

the key is the dollar , if dollar keeps rising more layoffs is expected

RSUs that were cut in half if not more? lol who is going to be hiring these people, btw?

My company can hire them LOL

send their resume to me we have cancel the freeze and hiring again to make america great

it doesn’t matter if it is cut in half , 200k to 100k is still a lot buddy

we still have problem of difficulty hiring people

i'm telling you, i really need some of that puff-puff you got there, buddy.

1 Vote

Dallas, Texas