February 2020 Massachusetts Closed sales stats

[Timothy Lewman]

The swan song for the MA real estate single family home market; these represent the last data of the trend heading into Covid-19 shut downs. Expect these start a nosedive for March and should be in full swing for the April numbers. I've seen a variety of predictions and evidence from China's rebound. One thing is clear, volume of closed sales, new listings and inventory will fall off a cliff. Prices are the question of the day - will lower volume lead to price drops to spur buyers?

For February 2020 closed sales, The Warren group (thewarrengroup.com) - reports ALL recorded transactions - shows that Single Family Homes (SFH) had a median price of $380,000, an increase of 4.11% over Feb 2019. They show that transactions are down to 2,673, -4.88%. The Massachusetts Association Realtors (MArealtors.com) reports only sales via the three MLS services in the state, giving us a view of the retail market. The Realtors show that the median price of SFH in Feb was $395,000, up 4.77% over Feb 2019. Closed sales checks in at 2,493, down 6.59% over 2/19.

MARealtors.com provides the rest of the numbers:

Affordability continues to be a challenge as inventory (# of homes for sale in Feb 2020) fell 20.45% compared to 2/19. We have YoY drops in inventory since 7/2019, I expect this trend will accelerate in March and April.

New listings were actually up 11.21% to 4,982, however the rolling 12 month average is still down 3.98% so this is a just blip in what is an otherwise shrinking market. In fact we have had a reduction in new listings in every month since 12/2018, except for the months of 1/19 and 2/20.

MARealtors also shows that the months supply calculation is at 1.7 months. Months supply = the inventory of homes for sale (at the end of a given month) divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.

Case-Schiller index for Boston is up 4.5%, slightly outpacing the national rate of 3.9%. For the record: "The monthly S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices use the “repeat sales method” of index calculation – an approach that is widely recognized as the premier methodology for indexing housing prices – which uses data on properties that have sold at least twice, in order to capture the true appreciated value of each specific sales unit. MSA Represented Counties Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area Essex MA, Middlesex MA, Norfolk MA, Plymouth MA, Suffolk MA, Rockingham NH, Strafford NH"