Oh fun, the CA appreciation vs everywhere else in the USA. Man there are tons of archived threads on this topic from several years ago. Worth rereading imo!
As someone who did very well with San francisco RE over the last two decades, my sentiment has been of course with prime and costal CA, and it has worked wonders for me. I basically benefited from this:
…And there is another leg up from 2017-2021 btw :)
But the question now is what will be best going forwards 10-15 years. Certainly if you own appreciated CA rentals in great locations (i.e. professional tenant base), you’re golden. Just sit and enjoy it, which is what I’m doing. But I’m more cautious about buying, especially now in prime Bay Area. OTOH I also wonder if recent high flying markets like Austin Boise, Vegas, etc., etc. are merely going to “correct” 10-15%, or will they see a 2008-9 GFC correction of 30-40%. There are just so many crucial macro economic factors at play right now such as inflation, interest rates, economic growth, global slowdown, etc. Not to mention the national migration trends that were borne out of Covid. We’re already starting to see some zealots who relocated out of CA roll back after suffering searing hot summers, lack of cultural variety, bland geographies, etc. And work from home is getting some challenges from employers. So anything-goes-party-time is over at least for some, and winter is rolling in (both economically and metaphorically.) Plus at the end of the day, yes there is more tech in other states, but the Bay Area is still the primary tech playing field, it’s just not as one sided as it was prior to the pandemic.
Personally I’m still pro Bay Area CA on long term values, which is why I’m keeping mine. But I’d just sit back and see how 2023 plays out before making any new moves. So I’ll answer your question the way Bob Dylan would…the answer my friend is blowing in the wind, the answer is blowing in the wind.
