All Forum Posts by: Paul Moore

Hi @Jasraj Singh.  I agree on cash flow as a priority.  Mark Twain reportedly said, "History doesn't really repeat itself... but it often rhymes" or something like that. A good indicator of the future is the past. If you want to find a property that will appreciate, try to buy when most are selling and in a panic.  That could be in about 2-3 years according to prior recessions. And try to buy in places that have massive swings (like FL, NV, AZ, and CA). And try to buy from sellers who are distressed (like banks and pre-foreclosures). Check out this graphic of Phoenix prices, but realize there are even better deals below the mean from the right sellers. And perhaps wilder swings in places like FL. 

Hi @Phil Beck.  I'm sorry to hear about your situation, and I just prayed for you to be healed completely. There are many things you can do.  How much do you want to invest? You may want to check out this new book by Brian Burke: https://www.biggerpockets.com/store/hands-off-investor-ultimate

@Rudy Curtler, I would say that the best passive investment is one that follows Buffett's first and second rules, and where you can completely trust the syndicator. I, like Scott Meyers, think that self-storage (along with mobile home parks) are among the best, but even those can be horribly messed up with a bad operator or by over-leveraging. Thankfully, BiggerPockets published a new book last week that will help us all: Brian Burke's The Hands-Off Investor.  

Also, check out this graphic with returns from 1994 to 2018... 

Multifamily performed very well in the last recession. Delinquencies were about 10% of single family for Freddie Mac, and even less when compared to 10% foreclosures at regional banks. 

Like @Evan Polaski said, self-storage and mobile home parks were not tracked as closely at the time. But check out this graphic with same property NOI growth. Mobile home parks had no dip at all in the last recession.

My friend @Scott Meyers claims that the top two asset classes in the last recession were self-storage and liquor sales. :-) I have not verified that. And check out this graphic showing REIT returns. MF and MHPs are tied, but self-storage is amazing.

My money is on self-storage and mobile home parks. However, I believe there will be opportunities to acquire some previously overpaid for MF assets from banks in about three years (note there is a 2-3 year lag from Wall Street to Main Street bottom). Which means that many of you have time to plan and assemble your team. 

@Karson Wilson. Roni is right.  We are approaching a massive market shift, where there will be incredible opportunities that do not exist right now.  I recommend making minimum payments on the loan for a while, and waiting for the bottom.  Then pick up a deeply discounted single family rental or something else when we are near the bottom.  If you happen to have access to the sand states of FL, AZ, NV, or CA, you are even better off.  Check out history in this graphic. It may not repeat, but it will certainly rhyme. 

Hi @Kevin Sabatino.  Whatever you do, I would recommend the new book The Hands-Off Investor by BP contributor, Brian Burke. As well as the recommended book by David Greene. 

Hi @Chai Jonn.  It turns out that you are in one of the hot spots to succeed in your quest. I agree with @Robert Martinez that you should consider trying to go the MF route. But if you want to do SFRs, listen to @Erik W. above. The sand states of AZ, NV, CA and FL typically have the wildest swings in property values and that is where you can make the largest profits if you buy near the bottom. Patience is a virtue in this situation.  

The attached graphic does not tell the whole story. In the trough, there were many distressed deals from banks and owners that were far below this curve. Maybe even half.  And note that the bottom wasn't hit until for about 5 years from the peak... 3 years after the stock market first dropped. This could look like 2022-2023 in this upcoming recession. Good luck! 

@John Collins.  There are very few new MHPs permitted and built in the US, and they are often slow to fill up. I really hope this works for you, and I would love to hear what you find out.  This may take a lot of persistence! 

@Account Closed.  I like Frank's reply. If you can find a way to partner with someone who has done this before on your first few deals, it could be of great value to you.  Even if you don't get paid on the first deal it may be a good learning experience.  

@James Wright I agree with @Jacob Blackett that this is possible and could be a good strategy.  You are already intimately familiar with the property performance and should tell investors exactly what you are planning and how they could potentially get involved in more deals after this one.  The book It's a Whole New Business by Gene Trowbridge could be helpful. Be sure to get the latest edition since it covers new tax changes.