All Forum Posts by: Ryan Moyer

It depends on the market.  You'll probably have to do some research on the market and see if you can pin down if the permit affects pricing in that market, because in some markets it absolutely does.

I'm sure you'll get people telling you these are residential homes, so their priced is based on what a similar home sells for and the permit doesn't factor into that.  And technically that may be true in principle, but is not always the case in practice.

In Hurricane UT where the waiting list for a permit is 10 years, a home may sell for 50% more if it has a permit.  The same exact home, right next door to each other.

Henderson, NV is another spot like this. One of the only legal STR areas outside of Las Vegas but permits are very limited. Maybe not 50% there, but easily 25%. In fact there was a home listed there recently where the listing was very clear that they were listing it at $150k over non-permitted comps and that the home would not appraise but was marked up because of the permit, and it received multiple offers and sold for over asking. That was just recently, not back when everything was getting multiple offers and selling over asking.

Not my intent to throw shade here, because Rob seems like a great guy, and I haven't seen his course, but he recently did his video where he shared his STR revenue and it was really underwhelming compared to what most hosts are doing on similar properties. You can also do the math pretty quickly compared w/ prior videos of his that shared his overall revenue and see that the VAST majority of his income comes from teaching, rather than doing.

He did $57k revenue last year on a 3br view cabin in Gatlinburg.  That's the lowest I've seen on a cabin like that and many hosts are doing $100k+ on similar properties.

His only property that he bought in the current market (after the boom) seems to be just bleeding money.  He didn't share the revenue on his $3M Scottsdale home he bought with David Green but he flipped through the calendar on the video and you could pause and do the math.  $12k-$15k monthly revenue on a $3M property (plus renovations) that probably has $30k+ in monthly expenses.  And that was in high season.  He underwrote that property for $450k+ gross revenue and he might not even hit $200k.

Again, I haven't seen the course so maybe what it provides is still really worth it. It's possible that his STR returns are poor (relative to what other people are getting on similar homes) because he puts so much time into the course (or the youtube vids). And maybe it's meant more as just a foundation as to how to logistically host an STR rather than how to do it really well. But it's just something worth considering that the person teaching how to host appears to pretty heavily underperform even average investors in the space other than the timing of being fortunate to buy a handful of homes right before the market blew up.

So you're saying Brandon's does $5k revenue per month?

I'm sure Brandon bought his place long ago at much lower prices and rates than are out there currently. I can't imagine that there's any STR-legal property for sale on Maui at current prices that would cash flow with $5k/month revenue, especially at current rates and with those big HOA fees.

I don't own anything there. I've heard from 3 separate investors in the area that 1br oceanfront condos are the sweet spot, and have done a lot of underwriting to try and make it work. Those condos are up around $1M - $1.2M to purchase now though. Occupancy rates are massive (up in the 90's) with nights rates getting as high as $400ish for the nicely renovated ones. You figure $330ish ADR for the whole year at that high occupancy and you're around $100k-$105k which is about what people are saying they get out of them. But again, at $1M+ purchase price with high rates and $800+/mo HOA fees and it's hard to make that pencil out. But on the plus side they'll probably keep appreciating in value forever as it's not like many more are being built.

The biggest problem with ski resort areas, especially western ski resort areas, is that there is limited supply and too many buyers that want to buy a home for themselves, and are willing to pay prices higher than would make sense as an investment.

Somewhere like Gatlinburg the prices are driven by investors.  Everyone buying there is buying to make money on STRs, so prices are mostly capped at the point where they would stop making sense as an investment.

But out in these western ski markets there are tons of people that just really want a house there for themselves, and they are willing to pay $4M for a property that only does $100k gross STR revenue that doesn't even cover the mortgage because for them, the STR revenue is just a bonus.

HELOC's on investment properties are much more difficult to get, if you can find them at all. Penfed used to be the go-to for this, but they stopped offering them on investment properties. As of about 6 months ago TD Bank offered them and that's who we used. Not sure if they're still offering them or not. I will say the terms are worse on investment properties, and the whole process of working with TD Bank was just awful. But in the end we got the money so I guess that's mostly what matters.

I think there's a point of diminishing returns here, and any tub in an STR is going to be way beyond that anyway.

I saw a meme the other day that was pretty funny.  Something to the effect of "I guest hosts are just going around trying not to think about how strangers have had sex on every surface in their home".

This would just be overly confusing and create a steeper barrier to entry for new guests (having to learn what all those things mean) which is exactly the opposite of what Airbnb wants.

Superhost is just a simple binary designation to show the host is neither a complete screw-up nor someone really new that's not going to know how to get you your door code when you arrive.  It's not meant to differentiate between an established host that generally knows what they're doing and a Ritz Carlton experience.  That's what reviews are for.

 I don't get why people just go around copy/pasting ChatGPT replies and passing it off as their own thoughts.

I own and manage Disney properties and I think prices will come down more.  I don't think people are cash flowing at current prices/rates there with the huge increase in supply/competition over the last year.  And since these communities are STRICTLY short term rental communities the prices are driven entirely by returns, and as more and more people realize those returns are negative at current pricing, that pricing will continue to come down in my estimation.

But then again, I thought prices would come down in April 2020, so this advice may only be worth what you paid for it :P

 That's amazing.