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All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

Account Closed has started 11 posts and replied 613 times.

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @David Faulkner:
You are correct, you don't have to account for jack in any calculations.

This is typical.... all over the place and missing any and everything connected to the facts. What you do not have is why for example this article also ranks Baltimore as the top performer in terms of cash flow in the country. Their analysis was based also on live market data.... your precise response to this previously was.... exact words, "they are crack analyst"... ; so anyone who doesn't agree with you is wrong and on crack. You are aware RealtyTrac is actually based in California right?

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
 @Will F.:

What happens when a major job provider outsources tons of jobs?  In LA it happened in Torrance (150k LA county) recently when Toyota left for texas... what happened to the local Torrance housing market?  It didn't dent it...at least I never heard anything about it LA is a big economy and will absorb minor economic hiccups....But within LA  county there are cities like Long Beach that are bigger better stronger economies would engulf you.  Long Beach is half a million population and has an economy independent of LA but is also part of LA county...

Watch the economy tanks and I will eat my words. 

Thats funny... notice that actually say LA Weekly, not the Baltimore Sun. So you cant accuse me of being biased in my analysis. 

This is a classic case of being out of touch. This isnt an issue of trying to make you or anyone feel any sort of way for living or investing in LA. These are however some facts a rationale investor accounts for before making baseless assumptions about any outcome of an investment. 

I trade with facts not emotion. And you cant face the facts.

http://tiny.cc/lacrises1

http://tiny.cc/lacrises2

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Andrew Stephens:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

 Is the population issue something they've been actually working on resolving? I find it hard to believe that its a problem they would have been working on for almost 50 years but unable to resolve.

Baltimore is a lot like Detroit -- Baltimore used to be a manufacturing powerhouse with Bethlehem Steel being one of the largest employers.   

Now the city is transforming into a service-based economy with health care, finance, and logistics, including an Amazon distribution center.   

Meanwhile, the manufacturing jobs have dwindled.   Bethlehem Steel filed for bankruptcy in 2001, then it was sold in a series of transactions to an Indian company, which sold it to a Russian company, which then sold it to another company in 2012. The Bethlehem steel mill in Baltimore was demolished in 2015.

@Will F. asks "what's 50 miles outside of Baltimore?"   Part of the answer is that Baltimore is part of the Baltimore-Washington metro area with a combined population of 7 million people.  I know several people who live in Baltimore and commute 40 miles by MARC Train to Washington for work. 

I've thought about investing in Baltimore, but the large stock of vacant buildings gives me pause.  The City of Baltimore has an open database where you can visualize the data and download a data set of more than 16,000 vacant buildings. 

The Washington Post used that data to make this graphic:

 Thank you for the information and the links. But its like the more I listen, the more opportunities I discover about the area.

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
 @David Faulkner:

Obviously this wasnt a lending discussion.... the spelling is diversification by the way. You should also probably let me worry about controlling for properties that actually cash flow.

OK Mike, let's talk about diversification and control ...

Again, way of point. Thats worst than a Shaq free throw :)   way off! 

Controlling for properties that cash flow is an investment decision not a property management decision. I keep telling you, dont get emotional about these things. It wont make any difference where I invest.

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Andrew Stephens:

Baltimore has a ways to go:

From the Washington Post:

"As Maryland’s largest city has dwindled from a peak population of 950,000 in 1950 to about 620,000 today, the receding tide has left behind 17,000 boarded-up houses and buildings, unoccupied, unwanted and unstable. They are scattered throughout the city, with major concentrations on the east side, as well as in battered West Baltimore, where 25-year-old Freddie Gray’s death from an injury suffered in police custody triggered riots in 2015."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/classic-apps/life-death-and-demolition/2017/01/26/8316d01c-8039-11e6-b002-307601806392_story.html

 Is the population issue something they've been actually working on resolving? I find it hard to believe that its a problem they would have been working on for almost 50 years but unable to resolve.

Post: The mindset of the Cash Flow investor: LA vs Baltimore

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147

Obviously this wasnt a lending discussion.... the spelling is diversification by the way. You should also probably let me worry about controlling for properties that actually cash flow.

Post: How to tell if something is a good deal?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Mike McCarthy:

Mike Fletcher I agree, negative cash flow is not something you want. My point was a _small_ positive cash flow is ok.

Say you're cash flow (after PITI, expenses, etc) is $100/mo. That's $1200/yr. definitely not enough to retire on, but a new property, etc. BUT it still may be a good investment. You're paying down your debt with your renter's money and making money long term.

Even a good cash flowing house at $500/mo only makes you $6K/yr. again, worthwhile, but it's not a life-changing amount. You either need to be happy with a little extra income, be looking long term, and-or start scaling up.

That is too low.. the average price of an SFR in the country is in the $200,000 range. A mortgage in that range hanging over your head just to net $100 per month wouldnt be worth the headache.

Post: How to tell if something is a good deal?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Jerrad Dumont:

Hello Everyone,

How am i supposed to tell if something is a good deal?  What numbers are your rule of thumb?  I am able to add up all the bills to figure out what i would have to pay each month, as well as see what i will need to bring in each month.  Realistically I am curious on how much profit each month is enough profit?  Do you do your numbers based on a 30 year mortgage or on a ten year mortgage.  

Right now i currently own a single family home with 5 bedrooms, rent to college kids at 2000 per semester.  Bring in about 23000 per year, but i did a ten year mortgage instead of a 30 because i wanted to get it paid off and start rolling.  only had it for about 4 months and haven't made it through a whole school year yet but it seems to be going well.  Not any extra income yet but it is really paying for itself which makes me happy but isn't generating anything to purchase anything new.  

Any thoughts on these?

 If rental cash flow is your goal, that usually means positive monthly cash flow from the property. Your mortgage payment amount makes a huge difference if you cash flow or not and so does expenses. The difference between the payments on a 10 year mortgage and 30years can be towns apart. A 10 year mortgage isnt an excuse to raise rent.

Using an SFR for instance, if you are to cash flow, rent at a minimum should equal:

Rent=Mortgage payment + Operating Expenses + Required Monthly CF 

or

Rent=Total Expenses + Required Monthly CF

If you are told any different, the objective isnt CF.

What you will also find is that in many markets, the market rate (what people can pay) for rent may be lower than just the mortgage payment alone or lower than total expenses (mortgage payment + operating expenses), in which case you will have a negative CF -- translation, find a property that actually does CF.

Post: How to tell if something is a good deal?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @Mike McCarthy:

The rental game is a long-term payoff game... The idea instead is to build up your equity (which you are doing faster with a 10 yr mortgage)

You kidding right? In many areas you have a hard time cash flowing with a 30 year term, suggesting 10 years is trying to amplify the negative cash flow per month significantly.

Post: Average cap rate for a D class neighborhood

Account ClosedPosted
  • Professional
  • Brooklyn, NY
  • Posts 624
  • Votes 147
Originally posted by @James Rodgers:

Who can tell me what the typical cap rate is in a D class neighborhood? Making an offer on an eight unit apartment complex, fully occupied in good condition.

You can definitely tell me what is the best and worst you've seen, but I want to know the average.

James

 Do you have a postal code for the area? Typically if you have average per unit price and average rent for a specific area, you can estimate cap based on that. How is the Birmingham market by the way? Properties cash flowing out there?