I want to preface this post as not having hardcore stats, but more of an anecdotal perspective that raises some questions for me. I was born and raised here in Las Vegas and have lived all over town. I have seen neighborhoods change and areas that used to be a desert landscape developed into new construction. (For reference I am 27).
Our state's (and Las Vegas') largest employer is MGM Resorts, and the other casinos are a huge source of employment as well. Many people are still laid off and collecting unemployment. With the supplemental income from the feds, this is a HUGE amount of money for everyone currently ($4k a month) and is helping to keep things afloat. A lot of people are using this money to enjoy their summers and go to the pools and vacation and whatnot. The casinos were extremely busy (especially since California shut all their bars for the weekend due to COVID spike and Gov. Newsom's order) and a lot of the people there were from Cali, but many locals were there as well. I have seen lots of new Mercedes and people who work in the industry somehow buying new luxury cars and going out and partying, despite being unemployed. I cannot verify, but those that I know who were lucky enough to work this weekend claimed that people were "balling out" on their unemployment money.
With the largest employers having a large share of their employees still unemployed, and with the future of the tourism industry seemingly unstable (rumors of another casino shutdown looming in the face of COVID spike here in the state), I'm wondering who are all these people buying houses? In what industries are all of these Californians who are moving to the valley working? Is there any data on whether these sales are from those new to the valley vs locals?
Friends of mine who own small businesses here in the valley, especially restaurants, are worried because they have worked hard to stay open but there is a large disregard for the new rules in a lot of places. If another shut down does occur it will disrupt a huge amount of business here in the valley and trickle down through the distributors and other ancillary organizations that depend on the tourism money, even indirectly.
Don't forget the largest source of tax revenue for the state comes from the casino taxes. Without those, how can we afford to keep public works projects going? Even with the stadium opening, will they allow for large groups of people to attend events? Concert venues have kept having dates pushed back, with current concerts being pushed back to March of 2021 (after being pushed back to August 2020 originally). I am hoping for the best as well, but I am having a hard time understanding what's keeping Vegas afloat currently. There was another post here on the forums warning about the large numbers of foreclosures that will come this winter/spring 2021. A lot of people who were given some relief from their mortgages came to find out that to get their deferment (assuming they weren't tricked into a forbearance and tasked with coming up with 3 months of payments all at once in July) they have to go through a loan "modification" (AKA refinance). For many who are still unemployed, how will they possibly qualify for a new mortgage when they're on unemployment?
Sorry for the long post, but I just thought I would share what's puzzling me at the moment. The numbers all look great on paper as far as sales figures in the valley, but I want to know what's supporting them. I'm sure I'm missing some information and always looking to learn more.