Is it a good time to sell in Las Vegas?

[Terry Lao]

The SFR median in May'20 was 315k, all time high was 315k in Jun'06. Now, with coronavirus, unemployment, forbearance, evictions to begin, strip partially opened, $600 Fed unemployment to end, etc. Is it a good time to sell in Las Vegas?

Are we near peak or at peak of real estate cycle?

[Bill B.]

I think the good news Michael is most of those stories you hear are made up.

The forbearance money won’t all be due in July. They don’t have to refinance or requalify. 
maybe 10% of the jobs are at casinos/on the strip, probably less. Unemployment is probably less than 20%.

A better question than who’s buying, is who’s selling? I mean you definitely aren’t selling if you’re unemployed right? You won’t be able to buy a replacement or qualify to rent without a job. Out of 14 properties I had one tenant move out when they closed their small business because of the shut down. it took 2 weeks to find new tenants paying 20% more  ($1900 vs $1600). 

People bailing from California/New York and other expensive areas continue to come to live and play  (did you see the traffic jam Sunday night going back to Cali?) If you sell you’re $600k-$1mill House in New York or California you retire, move to Vegas and live like a king in your $400k house with lower property taxes and no income tax.

The retired are making just as much as they were in January and are spending it freely. Plus we’ll get a new wave as companies and governments offer early retirement. (My wife is taking the early out at UMC at the end of the month. 2 years free medical, a big check, and payment for stockpiled CAL/EiB.)

With low interest rates Vegas home prices continue to rise as people figure out if they have a job they can live in a detached house for just a little more than renting in a virus factory/apartment. 

I understand it probably won’t be all roses. And it certainly won’t be all roses for everyone. But the same people claiming the crash is coming in December or January said the crash was coming in April or May. If “everyone knows” the crash is coming in 5 months, houses prices would start crashing now.