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All Forum Posts by: Luka Jozic

Luka Jozic has started 25 posts and replied 115 times.

Post: Need help estimating ARV for BRRRR

Luka JozicPosted
  • New to Real Estate
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 66
Quote from @Nicholas L.:

...that all the work it needs and all the time it will take is worth going through with it, just to leave 25K+ in it.

Agreed. I feel like I would need to get it around 60K for this to be worth it. 

Post: Need help estimating ARV for BRRRR

Luka JozicPosted
  • New to Real Estate
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 66
Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Luka Jozic

you had a separate thread about this one going and i was skeptical... and still am =)


 What part are you skeptical about?

Post: Need help estimating ARV for BRRRR

Luka JozicPosted
  • New to Real Estate
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 66

Yeah its not bad and I think the growth potential is pretty good. But on the other hand I have two SFHs where I im getting around 15 and 19% ROI and they needed minimal work.

With my current situation I save about 5K/mo for investing. So at the rate that I would like to buy properties I can not be leaving 25-28K in each deal. 

Also considering the bid and price ended up a little higher than I was hoping, I would probably have to wait 2-3 months on the roof to save up, meaning all my cash would be tied up for a total of probably 5 months. Im really stretching myself to the limit on this one.

Post: Need help estimating ARV for BRRRR

Luka JozicPosted
  • New to Real Estate
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 66
Quote from @Jonathan R McLaughlin:

25K left in the deal for how much yearly return after real expenses? Compare your ROI to other options for the money. 1 year treasury is 5%

If it appraised around 130K it would be more like 25-28K left in the deal. At that price it would cash flow around $400/mo after expenses so like 17-19% ROI. For this big of a project which includes basically replacing everything AND lead remediation, I feel like thats pretty low. 

However if it appraised around 140K, the ROI would be 25%+, which is what I think is more acceptable. 

Post: Need help estimating ARV for BRRRR

Luka JozicPosted
  • New to Real Estate
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 66
Quote from @Ben Firstenberg:

Your comps look decent to me. I like that they're all recent trades. 

I think if you're still unsure about it, try running a downside scenario. Find the worst 3 homes in the area that could still be considered comparable and see what those values are. If they're averaging $120k or more, I'd say probably you're in good shape. If it's more like $100k, maybe it's time to reconsider. 

FWIW I am NOT an appraiser, but I have noticed that appraisers will sometimes find VERY recent trades that are VERY close by and go by Price/SF. So maybe try that analysis as well? Even if it means using SFHs as your comps. 

I agree 25K seems a lot to leave in the deal. It's possible you won't do a whole lot better though. This is just such a tough market for BRRRRs

I mean there are plenty selling below 100K but they are all in rougher shape. The ones in similar shape to what mine would be like is like 125K-155K. If it appraised at 130K I'd leave 25-28K in the deal and that feels fairly safe. If it appraised around 140K that would make me a lot happier but Im not fully sure it would. And thats also if nothing goes wrong and that the current tenants don't trash the place when moving out. 

Post: Need help estimating ARV for BRRRR

Luka JozicPosted
  • New to Real Estate
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 66

I recently posted about a property with lead citations and Im needing some help as Im struggling to make the numbers work. The address is 3119 W 68th Ave in 44102. Im in contract at 66K cash, my bid came in at 42K (which I think was really good). The following things would be done to the property. The citation is of course taken care of with these repairs.
I will replace the roof, windows (lower windows already vinyl), new vinyl siding (lower half already done), refinish kitchen cabinets and counter top and new white/black appliances, refinish/replace bathroom tubs, fix electrical and add GCFIs where needed, patch and pain entire interior, keep kitchen floors, replace remaining floors with LVP, carpet in all 6 bedrooms. Also taking care of some other minor things from the inspection.

Now my agent did a CRM but that was before deciding for vinyl and new roof. I also would like to get a second opinion here. Initially I thought around 130K but based on some other comps and the fact that almost everything will be new, Im hoping I could reach 140K+. Here are a few other comps for reference:
https://www.trulia.com/p/oh/cl...
https://www.trulia.com/p/oh/cl...
https://www.trulia.com/p/oh/cl...

With around 8K closing and refi costs Id be all in around 116K. At 130K I could only pull out 91K meaning Id have about 25K still left in the deal. I get that I can't expect to pull everything out but 25K left sounds a little much to me. 

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Luka Jozic

well... include all the numbers though.

say you get 130K out.  you'll get 70-75% of that on the refi.  and you'll lose 5-8K in fees and costs on the refi closing.

and your purchase price is 66K + 35K rehab + your closing costs + your holding costs + any overruns + your staging and leasing costs.

so... it's probably closer to 20-30K left in the deal.

so you have to ask yourself if the risk is worth it.

only you can answer that.

My lender told me 4K in refi costs and closing costs shouldn't bee too much if Im buying cash. I don't have any carrying costs except like utilities which is not much. Overruns is of course a risk but I have a 5K cushion in my estimate and my GC will also give me a detailed bid tomorrow so that should be good. Im not sure what you mean by staging costs? Its not a flip so what would I be staging?

Also, if you look at 6x2 duplexes around 2000 sqft in 44102, there are plenty that sold well over 130K in way worse shape. So Im hoping I can refi at more but 130K should be pretty safe. The only thing really would be if the inspection turns up a bunch of stuff adding to the rehab budget, at which point I'll negotiate with the seller and worst case just pull out. 
Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Luka Jozic

so we're mixing up a bunch of questions here - whether this is a good deal, the lead abatement, the financing, etc.

to talk solely about the purchase and refinance - here goes

if you buy in cash, fix up, and it appraises significantly higher, you can do a cash out refi and get all your cash back.

why do it this way?  because if you buy conventionally (which seems like it would be difficult at that low of a price point anyway?) you'll pay a bunch of fees to close and it will be a much bigger pain.

i have no idea if the ARV can be increased - but do the math and see. say for example - you buy for 66K cash and it appraises for 100K with a DSCR lender, you could cash out about 70K.

BUT

many DSCR lenders are now giving more favorable terms after 6 months.

so this is all something you'd want to work out first

HTH


My numbers are the following: Purchase price 66K, rehab 35K (includes lead abatement), appraisal 125-130K (based on my agents CMA). This is a 3x1 in each unit I see them sold for 130k+ in that area in good condition.

That means if those numbers stick, after cash out refi fees etc I should leave about 15K in the deal. Id say that’s pretty good in todays market.

Quote from @Keith Roberts:

We have several properties in the Cleveland Market.  If you have closed already I recommend moving one tenant out at a time getting the lead done, then replacing with Section 8 tenants (in Cleveland this is CMHA or EDEN) who require lead to be done before hand.  This will guarantee cashflow (no worries about them moving out) as well as give you annual rent increases if necessary.  

BUT.. if you have not closed WALK AWAY from any property where there are tenants already in there and it has been cited for lead.   Tenants are very savvy and you can get in serious trouble if one of them decides to make the lead an issue.

I have not closed im doing an inspection tomorrow and having my GC walk it to validate the repairs needed. From my walkthrough and speaking with a lead expert it doesn’t seem bad actually.

Tenants are month to month so how about this: if I wanna move forward after the inspection, I tell the seller to give the tenants the 1 month notice and by the time we close tenants are already out. That way they can’t pull anything on me. 

Eitherway I think because of all the comments about the issues the tenants can cause due to the lead I’d be better off to kick them both out and do the rehab, refi and keep going. 
Quote from @Vadim F.:
Quote from @Luka Jozic:
Quote from @Bob Stevens:
Quote from @Luka Jozic:

I am under contract on a duplex in the 44102 area at 66K that has been cited for lead by the city. My initial idea was to buy cash, vacate the property, and do a BRRRR (the property needs a decent amount of work) and refinance asap and find my next deal. However, it seems like I have the option to do conventional and since the property has tenants in both units paying like $600/mo each, I was thinking is it better to maybe do a conventional and bump the rent to maybe $750 a month? If I do that, I can't do a cash out refinance for a year. Sure I will have more money in my pocket, but I wont have enough to buy something else cash until I save some more. Additionally, if one (or worse, both) tenants move out then I will have to put money into making it rent ready, but I won't be able to refinance for another year meaning even more of my money will be tied up. I guess one solution to that is to see if I can get them both to sign a new 1 year lease but that might be hard before I take ownership. I do know both tenants want to stay, but Im not sure how they would feel about a rent bump.

Rates right now for a cash out refi are around 6.5% with 2 points which is pretty good. I don't know what they might be in a year. Im really not sure what the best play is here as I feel like there are pros and cons with either decision. 

 STILL working way to hard, and NO you should NOT buy this property, ITS BEEN CITED FOR LEAD from the city!! RUN away 

BTW 600 is terrible, 

Why would I run away? It doesn't really seem that hard to fix. And yeah its 600 because of the current condition. The idea is to add value and raise the rents.

 I would highly advise having an inspector or gc walk the property one more time before you close. This can be a huge can of worms that you don’t want to deal with as a first investment.

I am having an inspection done on Wednesday and my GC is also going to walk it and give a quote. This is not my first investment its my 3rd. I spoke to a lead expert already that looked at the lead abatement document for me and told me what needed to be done. The only items that need to be done is replacing some windows, scraping and painting part of the exterior, and replacing door casings, which someone told me I can just paint with lead enclosing paint.